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The information detection of complex systems from data is currently undergoing a revolution, driven by the emergence of big data and machine learning methodology. Discovering governing equations and quantifying dynamical properties of complex systems are among central challenges. In this work, we devise a nonparametric approach to learn the relative entropy rate from observations of stochastic differential equations with different drift functions.The estimator corresponding to the relative entropy rate then is presented via the Gaussian process kernel theory. Meanwhile, this approach enables to extract the governing equations. We illustrate our approach in several examples. Numerical experiments show the proposed approach performs well for rational drift functions, not only polynomial drift functions.

The modeling and control of complex physical systems are essential in real-world problems. We propose a novel framework that is generally applicable to solving PDE-constrained optimal control problems by introducing surrogate models for PDE solution operators with special regularizers. The procedure of the proposed framework is divided into two phases: solution operator learning for PDE constraints (Phase 1) and searching for optimal control (Phase 2). Once the surrogate model is trained in Phase 1, the optimal control can be inferred in Phase 2 without intensive computations. Our framework can be applied to both data-driven and data-free cases. We demonstrate the successful application of our method to various optimal control problems for different control variables with diverse PDE constraints from the Poisson equation to Burgers' equation.

In many areas, such as the physical sciences, life sciences, and finance, control approaches are used to achieve a desired goal in complex dynamical systems governed by differential equations. In this work we formulate the problem of controlling stochastic partial differential equations (SPDE) as a reinforcement learning problem. We present a learning-based, distributed control approach for online control of a system of SPDEs with high dimensional state-action space using deep deterministic policy gradient method. We tested the performance of our method on the problem of controlling the stochastic Burgers' equation, describing a turbulent fluid flow in an infinitely large domain.

In this paper we explore partial coherence as a tool for evaluating causal influence of one signal sequence on another. In some cases the signal sequence is sampled from a time- or space-series. The key idea is to establish a connection between questions of causality and questions of partial coherence. Once this connection is established, then a scale-invariant partial coherence statistic is used to resolve the question of causality. This coherence statistic is shown to be a likelihood ratio, and its null distribution is shown to be a Wilks Lambda. It may be computed from a composite covariance matrix or from its inverse, the information matrix. Numerical experiments demonstrate the application of partial coherence to the resolution of causality. Importantly, the method is model-free, depending on no generative model for causality.

A solution manifold is the collection of points in a $d$-dimensional space satisfying a system of $s$ equations with $s<d$. Solution manifolds occur in several statistical problems including hypothesis testing, curved-exponential families, constrained mixture models, partial identifications, and nonparametric set estimation. We analyze solution manifolds both theoretically and algorithmically. In terms of theory, we derive five useful results: the smoothness theorem, the stability theorem (which implies the consistency of a plug-in estimator), the convergence of a gradient flow, the local center manifold theorem and the convergence of the gradient descent algorithm. To numerically approximate a solution manifold, we propose a Monte Carlo gradient descent algorithm. In the case of likelihood inference, we design a manifold constraint maximization procedure to find the maximum likelihood estimator on the manifold. We also develop a method to approximate a posterior distribution defined on a solution manifold.

Stochastic differential equations projected onto manifolds occur widely in physics, chemistry, biology, engineering, nanotechnology and optimization theory. In some problems one can use an intrinsic coordinate system on the manifold, but this is often computationally impractical. Numerical projections are preferable in many cases. We derive an algorithm to solve these, using adiabatic elimination and a constraining potential. We also review earlier proposed algorithms. Our hybrid midpoint projection algorithm uses a midpoint projection on a tangent manifold, combined with a normal projection to satisfy the constraints. We show from numerical examples on spheroidal and hyperboloidal surfaces that this has greatly reduced errors compared to earlier methods using either a hybrid Euler with tangential and normal projections or purely tangential derivative methods. Our technique can handle multiple constraints. This allows, for example, the treatment of manifolds that embody several conserved quantities. The resulting algorithm is accurate, relatively simple to implement and efficient.

Estimation of linear functionals from observed data is an important task in many subjects. Juditsky & Nemirovski [The Annals of Statistics 37.5A (2009): 2278-2300] propose a framework for non-parametric estimation of linear functionals in a very general setting, with nearly minimax optimal confidence intervals. They compute this estimator and the associated confidence interval by approximating the saddle-point of a function. While this optimization problem is convex, it is rather difficult to solve using existing off-the-shelf optimization software. Furthermore, this computation can be expensive when the estimators live in a high-dimensional space. We propose a different algorithm to construct this estimator. Our algorithm can be used with existing optimization software and is much cheaper to implement even when the estimators are in a high-dimensional space, as long as the Hellinger affinity (or the Bhattacharyya coefficient) for the chosen parametric distribution can be efficiently computed given the parameters. We hope that our algorithm will foster the adoption of this estimation technique to a wider variety of problems with relative ease.

This paper introduces an Ordinary Differential Equation (ODE) notion for survival analysis. The ODE notion not only provides a unified modeling framework, but more importantly, also enables the development of a widely applicable, scalable, and easy-to-implement procedure for estimation and inference. Specifically, the ODE modeling framework unifies many existing survival models, such as the proportional hazards model, the linear transformation model, the accelerated failure time model, and the time-varying coefficient model as special cases. The generality of the proposed framework serves as the foundation of a widely applicable estimation procedure. As an illustrative example, we develop a sieve maximum likelihood estimator for a general semi-parametric class of ODE models. In comparison to existing estimation methods, the proposed procedure has advantages in terms of computational scalability and numerical stability. Moreover, to address unique theoretical challenges induced by the ODE notion, we establish a new general sieve M-theorem for bundled parameters and show that the proposed sieve estimator is consistent and asymptotically normal, and achieves the semi-parametric efficiency bound. The finite sample performance of the proposed estimator is examined in simulation studies and a real-world data example.

This work focuses on combining nonparametric topic models with Auto-Encoding Variational Bayes (AEVB). Specifically, we first propose iTM-VAE, where the topics are treated as trainable parameters and the document-specific topic proportions are obtained by a stick-breaking construction. The inference of iTM-VAE is modeled by neural networks such that it can be computed in a simple feed-forward manner. We also describe how to introduce a hyper-prior into iTM-VAE so as to model the uncertainty of the prior parameter. Actually, the hyper-prior technique is quite general and we show that it can be applied to other AEVB based models to alleviate the {\it collapse-to-prior} problem elegantly. Moreover, we also propose HiTM-VAE, where the document-specific topic distributions are generated in a hierarchical manner. HiTM-VAE is even more flexible and can generate topic distributions with better variability. Experimental results on 20News and Reuters RCV1-V2 datasets show that the proposed models outperform the state-of-the-art baselines significantly. The advantages of the hyper-prior technique and the hierarchical model construction are also confirmed by experiments.