Numerical weather prediction (NWP) and machine learning (ML) methods are popular for solar forecasting. However, NWP models have multiple possible physical parameterizations, which requires site-specific NWP optimization. This is further complicated when regional NWP models are used with global climate models with different possible parameterizations. In this study, an alternative approach is proposed and evaluated for four radiation models. Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is run in both global and regional mode to provide an estimate for solar irradiance. This estimate is then post-processed using ML to provide a final prediction. Normalized root-mean-square error from WRF is reduced by up to 40-50% with this ML error correction model. Results obtained using CAM, GFDL, New Goddard and RRTMG radiation models were comparable after this correction, negating the need for WRF parameterization tuning. Other models incorporating nearby locations and sensor data are also evaluated, with the latter being particularly promising.
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ACM/IEEE第23屆模型驅動工程語言和系統國際會議，是模型驅動軟件和系統工程的首要會議系列，由ACM-SIGSOFT和IEEE-TCSE支持組織。自1998年以來，模型涵蓋了建模的各個方面，從語言和方法到工具和應用程序。模特的參加者來自不同的背景，包括研究人員、學者、工程師和工業專業人士。MODELS 2019是一個論壇，參與者可以圍繞建模和模型驅動的軟件和系統交流前沿研究成果和創新實踐經驗。今年的版本將為建模社區提供進一步推進建模基礎的機會，并在網絡物理系統、嵌入式系統、社會技術系統、云計算、大數據、機器學習、安全、開源等新興領域提出建模的創新應用以及可持續性。
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Learning rate schedules are ubiquitously used to speed up and improve optimisation. Many different policies have been introduced on an empirical basis, and theoretical analyses have been developed for convex settings. However, in many realistic problems the loss-landscape is high-dimensional and non convex -- a case for which results are scarce. In this paper we present a first analytical study of the role of learning rate scheduling in this setting, focusing on Langevin optimization with a learning rate decaying as $\eta(t)=t^{-\beta}$. We begin by considering models where the loss is a Gaussian random function on the $N$-dimensional sphere ($N\rightarrow \infty$), featuring an extensive number of critical points. We find that to speed up optimization without getting stuck in saddles, one must choose a decay rate $\beta<1$, contrary to convex setups where $\beta=1$ is generally optimal. We then add to the problem a signal to be recovered. In this setting, the dynamics decompose into two phases: an \emph{exploration} phase where the dynamics navigates through rough parts of the landscape, followed by a \emph{convergence} phase where the signal is detected and the dynamics enter a convex basin. In this case, it is optimal to keep a large learning rate during the exploration phase to escape the non-convex region as quickly as possible, then use the convex criterion $\beta=1$ to converge rapidly to the solution. Finally, we demonstrate that our conclusions hold in a common regression task involving neural networks.
Which samples should be labelled in a large data set is one of the most important problems for trainingof deep learning. So far, a variety of active sample selection strategies related to deep learning havebeen proposed in many literatures. We defined them as Active Deep Learning (ADL) only if theirpredictor is deep model, where the basic learner is called as predictor and the labeling schemes iscalled selector. In this survey, three fundamental factors in selector designation were summarized. Wecategory ADL into model-driven ADL and data-driven ADL, by whether its selector is model-drivenor data-driven. The different characteristics of the two major type of ADL were addressed in indetail respectively. Furthermore, different sub-classes of data-driven and model-driven ADL are alsosummarized and discussed emphatically. The advantages and disadvantages between data-driven ADLand model-driven ADL are thoroughly analyzed. We pointed out that, with the development of deeplearning, the selector in ADL also is experiencing the stage from model-driven to data-driven. Finally,we make discussion on ADL about its uncertainty, explanatory, foundations of cognitive science etc.and survey on the trend of ADL from model-driven to data-driven.
Signal maps are essential for the planning and operation of cellular networks. However, the measurements needed to create such maps are expensive, often biased, not always reflecting the metrics of interest, and posing privacy risks. In this paper, we develop a unified framework for predicting cellular signal maps from limited measurements. We propose and combine three mechanisms that deal with the fact that not all measurements are equally important for a particular prediction task. First, we design \emph{quality-of-service functions ($Q$)}, including signal strength (RSRP) but also other metrics of interest, such as coverage (improving recall by 76\%-92\%) and call drop probability (reducing error by as much as 32\%). By implicitly altering the training loss function, quality functions can also improve prediction for RSRP itself where it matters (e.g. MSE reduction up to 27\% in the low signal strength regime, where errors are critical). Second, we introduce \emph{weight functions} ($W$) to specify the relative importance of prediction at different parts of the feature space. We propose re-weighting based on importance sampling to obtain unbiased estimators when the sampling and target distributions mismatch(yielding 20\% improvement for targets on spatially uniform loss or on user population density). Third, we apply the {\em Data Shapley} framework for the first time in this context: to assign values ($\phi$) to individual measurement points, which capture the importance of their contribution to the prediction task. This can improve prediction (e.g. from 64\% to 94\% in recall for coverage loss) by removing points with negative values, and can also enable data minimization (i.e. we show that we can remove 70\% of data w/o loss in performance). We evaluate our methods and demonstrate significant improvement in prediction performance, using several real-world datasets.
Spatial statistics is concerned with the analysis of data that have spatial locations associated with them, and those locations are used to model statistical dependence between the data. The spatial data are treated as a single realisation from a probability model that encodes the dependence through both fixed effects and random effects, where randomness is manifest in the underlying spatial process and in the noisy, incomplete, measurement process. The focus of this review article is on the use of basis functions to provide an extremely flexible and computationally efficient way to model spatial processes that are possibly highly non-stationary. Several examples of basis-function models are provided to illustrate how they are used in Gaussian, non-Gaussian, multivariate, and spatio-temporal settings, with applications in geophysics. Our aim is to emphasise the versatility of these spatial statistical models and to demonstrate that they are now centre-stage in a number of application domains. The review concludes with a discussion and illustration of software currently available to fit spatial-basis-function models and implement spatial-statistical prediction.
This paper studies task adaptive pre-trained model selection, an \emph{underexplored} problem of assessing pre-trained models so that models suitable for the task can be selected from the model zoo without fine-tuning. A pilot work~\cite{nguyen_leep:_2020} addressed the problem in transferring supervised pre-trained models to classification tasks, but it cannot handle emerging unsupervised pre-trained models or regression tasks. In pursuit of a practical assessment method, we propose to estimate the maximum evidence (marginalized likelihood) of labels given features extracted by pre-trained models. The maximum evidence is \emph{less prone to over-fitting} than the likelihood, and its \emph{expensive computation can be dramatically reduced} by our carefully designed algorithm. The Logarithm of Maximum Evidence (LogME) can be used to assess pre-trained models for transfer learning: a pre-trained model with high LogME is likely to have good transfer performance. LogME is fast, accurate, and general, characterizing it as \emph{the first practical assessment method for transfer learning}. Compared to brute-force fine-tuning, LogME brings over $3000\times$ speedup in wall-clock time. It outperforms prior methods by a large margin in their setting and is applicable to new settings that prior methods cannot deal with. It is general enough to diverse pre-trained models (supervised pre-trained and unsupervised pre-trained), downstream tasks (classification and regression), and modalities (vision and language). Code is at \url{//github.com/thuml/LogME}.
This paper presents an upgraded, real world application oriented version of gym-gazebo, the Robot Operating System (ROS) and Gazebo based Reinforcement Learning (RL) toolkit, which complies with OpenAI Gym. The content discusses the new ROS 2 based software architecture and summarizes the results obtained using Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO). Ultimately, the output of this work presents a benchmarking system for robotics that allows different techniques and algorithms to be compared using the same virtual conditions. We have evaluated environments with different levels of complexity of the Modular Articulated Robotic Arm (MARA), reaching accuracies in the millimeter scale. The converged results show the feasibility and usefulness of the gym-gazebo 2 toolkit, its potential and applicability in industrial use cases, using modular robots.
Scene coordinate regression has become an essential part of current camera re-localization methods. Different versions, such as regression forests and deep learning methods, have been successfully applied to estimate the corresponding camera pose given a single input image. In this work, we propose to regress the scene coordinates pixel-wise for a given RGB image by using deep learning. Compared to the recent methods, which usually employ RANSAC to obtain a robust pose estimate from the established point correspondences, we propose to regress confidences of these correspondences, which allows us to immediately discard erroneous predictions and improve the initial pose estimates. Finally, the resulting confidences can be used to score initial pose hypothesis and aid in pose refinement, offering a generalized solution to solve this task.
In this work, we compare three different modeling approaches for the scores of soccer matches with regard to their predictive performances based on all matches from the four previous FIFA World Cups 2002 - 2014: Poisson regression models, random forests and ranking methods. While the former two are based on the teams' covariate information, the latter method estimates adequate ability parameters that reflect the current strength of the teams best. Within this comparison the best-performing prediction methods on the training data turn out to be the ranking methods and the random forests. However, we show that by combining the random forest with the team ability parameters from the ranking methods as an additional covariate we can improve the predictive power substantially. Finally, this combination of methods is chosen as the final model and based on its estimates, the FIFA World Cup 2018 is simulated repeatedly and winning probabilities are obtained for all teams. The model slightly favors Spain before the defending champion Germany. Additionally, we provide survival probabilities for all teams and at all tournament stages as well as the most probable tournament outcome.
We describe Sockeye (version 1.12), an open-source sequence-to-sequence toolkit for Neural Machine Translation (NMT). Sockeye is a production-ready framework for training and applying models as well as an experimental platform for researchers. Written in Python and built on MXNet, the toolkit offers scalable training and inference for the three most prominent encoder-decoder architectures: attentional recurrent neural networks, self-attentional transformers, and fully convolutional networks. Sockeye also supports a wide range of optimizers, normalization and regularization techniques, and inference improvements from current NMT literature. Users can easily run standard training recipes, explore different model settings, and incorporate new ideas. In this paper, we highlight Sockeye's features and benchmark it against other NMT toolkits on two language arcs from the 2017 Conference on Machine Translation (WMT): English-German and Latvian-English. We report competitive BLEU scores across all three architectures, including an overall best score for Sockeye's transformer implementation. To facilitate further comparison, we release all system outputs and training scripts used in our experiments. The Sockeye toolkit is free software released under the Apache 2.0 license.
This paper presents a safety-aware learning framework that employs an adaptive model learning method together with barrier certificates for systems with possibly nonstationary agent dynamics. To extract the dynamic structure of the model, we use a sparse optimization technique, and the resulting model will be used in combination with control barrier certificates which constrain feedback controllers only when safety is about to be violated. Under some mild assumptions, solutions to the constrained feedback-controller optimization are guaranteed to be globally optimal, and the monotonic improvement of a feedback controller is thus ensured. In addition, we reformulate the (action-)value function approximation to make any kernel-based nonlinear function estimation method applicable. We then employ a state-of-the-art kernel adaptive filtering technique for the (action-)value function approximation. The resulting framework is verified experimentally on a brushbot, whose dynamics is unknown and highly complex.
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