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Asynchronous Bayesian optimization is a recently implemented technique that allows for parallel operation of experimental systems and disjointed workflows. Contrasting with serial Bayesian optimization which individually selects experiments one at a time after conducting a measurement for each experiment, asynchronous policies sequentially assign multiple experiments before measurements can be taken and evaluate new measurements continuously as they are made available. This technique allows for faster data generation and therefore faster optimization of an experimental space. This work extends the capabilities of asynchronous optimization methods beyond prior studies by evaluating four additional policies that incorporate pessimistic predictions in the training data set. Combined with a conventional greedy policy, the five total policies were evaluated in a simulated environment and benchmarked with serial sampling. Under some conditions and parameter space dimensionalities, the pessimistic asynchronous policy reached optimum experimental conditions in significantly fewer experiments than equivalent serial policies and proved to be less susceptible to convergence onto local optima at higher dimensions. Without accounting for the faster sampling rate, the pessimistic asynchronous algorithm presented in this work could result in more efficient algorithm driven optimization of high-cost experimental spaces. Accounting for sampling rate, the presented asynchronous algorithm could allow for faster optimization in experimental spaces where multiple experiments can be run before results are collected.

Estimating parameters of a diffusion process given continuous-time observations of the process via maximum likelihood approaches or, online, via stochastic gradient descent or Kalman filter formulations constitutes a well-established research area. It has also been established previously that these techniques are, in general, not robust to perturbations in the data in the form of temporal correlations. While the subject is relatively well understood and appropriate modifications have been suggested in the context of multi-scale diffusion processes and their reduced model equations, we consider here an alternative setting where a second-order diffusion process in positions and velocities is only observed via its positions. In this note, we propose a simple modification to standard stochastic gradient descent and Kalman filter formulations, which eliminates the arising systematic estimation biases. The modification can be extended to standard maximum likelihood approaches and avoids computation of previously proposed correction terms.

After decades of attention, emergence continues to lack a centralized mathematical definition that leads to a rigorous emergence test applicable to physical flocks and swarms, particularly those containing both deterministic elements (eg, interactions) and stochastic perturbations like measurement noise. This study develops a heuristic test based on singular value curve analysis of data matrices containing deterministic and Gaussian noise signals. The minimum detection criteria are identified, and statistical and matrix space analysis developed to determine upper and lower bounds. This study applies the analysis to representative examples by using recorded trajectories of mixed deterministic and stochastic trajectories for multi-agent, cellular automata, and biological video. Examples include Cucker Smale and Vicsek flocking, Gaussian noise and its integration, recorded observations of bird flocking, and 1D cellular automata. Ensemble simulations including measurement noise are performed to compute statistical variation and discussed relative to random matrix theory noise bounds. The results indicate singular knee analysis of recorded trajectories can detect gradated levels on a continuum of structure and noise. Across the eight singular value decay metrics considered, the angle subtended at the singular value knee emerges with the most potential for supporting cross-embodiment emergence detection, the size of noise bounds is used as an indication of required sample size, and the presence of a large fraction of singular values inside noise bounds as an indication of noise.

The architecture of the brain is too complex to be intuitively surveyable without the use of compressed representations that project its variation into a compact, navigable space. The task is especially challenging with high-dimensional data, such as gene expression, where the joint complexity of anatomical and transcriptional patterns demands maximum compression. Established practice is to use standard principal component analysis (PCA), whose computational felicity is offset by limited expressivity, especially at great compression ratios. Employing whole-brain, voxel-wise Allen Brain Atlas transcription data, here we systematically compare compressed representations based on the most widely supported linear and non-linear methods-PCA, kernel PCA, non-negative matrix factorization (NMF), t-stochastic neighbour embedding (t-SNE), uniform manifold approximation and projection (UMAP), and deep auto-encoding-quantifying reconstruction fidelity, anatomical coherence, and predictive utility with respect to signalling, microstructural, and metabolic targets. We show that deep auto-encoders yield superior representations across all metrics of performance and target domains, supporting their use as the reference standard for representing transcription patterns in the human brain.

Precision matrices are crucial in many fields such as social networks, neuroscience, and economics, representing the edge structure of Gaussian graphical models (GGMs), where a zero in an off-diagonal position of the precision matrix indicates conditional independence between nodes. In high-dimensional settings where the dimension of the precision matrix $p$ exceeds the sample size $n$ and the matrix is sparse, methods like graphical Lasso, graphical SCAD, and CLIME are popular for estimating GGMs. While frequentist methods are well-studied, Bayesian approaches for (unstructured) sparse precision matrices are less explored. The graphical horseshoe estimate by \citet{li2019graphical}, applying the global-local horseshoe prior, shows superior empirical performance, but theoretical work for sparse precision matrix estimations using shrinkage priors is limited. This paper addresses these gaps by providing concentration results for the tempered posterior with the fully specified horseshoe prior in high-dimensional settings. Moreover, we also provide novel theoretical results for model misspecification, offering a general oracle inequality for the posterior.

Difference-in-differences (DID) is a popular approach to identify the causal effects of treatments and policies in the presence of unmeasured confounding. DID identifies the sample average treatment effect in the treated (SATT). However, a goal of such research is often to inform decision-making in target populations outside the treated sample. Transportability methods have been developed to extend inferences from study samples to external target populations; these methods have primarily been developed and applied in settings where identification is based on conditional independence between the treatment and potential outcomes, such as in a randomized trial. We present a novel approach to identifying and estimating effects in a target population, based on DID conducted in a study sample that differs from the target population. We present a range of assumptions under which one may identify causal effects in the target population and employ causal diagrams to illustrate these assumptions. In most realistic settings, results depend critically on the assumption that any unmeasured confounders are not effect measure modifiers on the scale of the effect of interest (e.g., risk difference, odds ratio). We develop several estimators of transported effects, including g-computation, inverse odds weighting, and a doubly robust estimator based on the efficient influence function. Simulation results support theoretical properties of the proposed estimators. As an example, we apply our approach to study the effects of a 2018 US federal smoke-free public housing law on air quality in public housing across the US, using data from a DID study conducted in New York City alone.

We propose a scalable variational Bayes method for statistical inference for a single or low-dimensional subset of the coordinates of a high-dimensional parameter in sparse linear regression. Our approach relies on assigning a mean-field approximation to the nuisance coordinates and carefully modelling the conditional distribution of the target given the nuisance. This requires only a preprocessing step and preserves the computational advantages of mean-field variational Bayes, while ensuring accurate and reliable inference for the target parameter, including for uncertainty quantification. We investigate the numerical performance of our algorithm, showing that it performs competitively with existing methods. We further establish accompanying theoretical guarantees for estimation and uncertainty quantification in the form of a Bernstein--von Mises theorem.

The approximation properties of infinitely wide shallow neural networks heavily depend on the choice of the activation function. To understand this influence, we study embeddings between Barron spaces with different activation functions. These embeddings are proven by providing push-forward maps on the measures $\mu$ used to represent functions $f$. An activation function of particular interest is the rectified power unit ($\operatorname{RePU}$) given by $\operatorname{RePU}_s(x)=\max(0,x)^s$. For many commonly used activation functions, the well-known Taylor remainder theorem can be used to construct a push-forward map, which allows us to prove the embedding of the associated Barron space into a Barron space with a $\operatorname{RePU}$ as activation function. Moreover, the Barron spaces associated with the $\operatorname{RePU}_s$ have a hierarchical structure similar to the Sobolev spaces $H^m$.

Mechanical issues of noncircular and asymmetrical tunnelling can be estimated using complex variable method with suitable conformal mapping. Exsiting solution schemes of conformal mapping for noncircular tunnel generally need iteration or optimization strategy, and are thereby mathematically complicated. This paper proposes a new bidirectional conformal mapping for deep and shallow tunnels of noncircular and asymmetrical shapes by incorporating Charge Simulation Method. The solution scheme of this new bidirectional conformal mapping only involves a pair of linear systems, and is therefore logically straight-forward, computationally efficient, and practically easy in coding. New numerical strategies are developed to deal with possible sharp corners of cavity by small arc simulation and densified collocation points. Several numerical examples are presented to illustrate the geometrical usage of the new bidirectional conformal mapping. Furthermore, the new bidirectional conformal mapping is embedded into two complex variable solutions of noncircular and asymmetrical shallow tunnelling in gravitational geomaterial with reasonable far-field displacement. The respective result comparisons with finite element solution and exsiting analytical solution show good agreements, indicating the feasible mechanical usage of the new bidirectional conformal mapping.

For the fractional Laplacian of variable order, an efficient and accurate numerical evaluation in multi-dimension is a challenge for the nature of a singular integral. We propose a simple and easy-to-implement finite difference scheme for the multi-dimensional variable-order fractional Laplacian defined by a hypersingular integral. We prove that the scheme is of second-order convergence and apply the developed finite difference scheme to solve various equations with the variable-order fractional Laplacian. We present a fast solver with quasi-linear complexity of the scheme for computing variable-order fractional Laplacian and corresponding PDEs. Several numerical examples demonstrate the accuracy and efficiency of our algorithm and verify our theory.