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In this paper we provide a rigorous convergence analysis for the renowned particle swarm optimization method by using tools from stochastic calculus and the analysis of partial differential equations. Based on a time-continuous formulation of the particle dynamics as a system of stochastic differential equations, we establish convergence to a global minimizer of a possibly nonconvex and nonsmooth objective function in two steps. First, we prove consensus formation of an associated mean-field dynamics by analyzing the time-evolution of the variance of the particle distribution. We then show that this consensus is close to a global minimizer by employing the asymptotic Laplace principle and a tractability condition on the energy landscape of the objective function. These results allow for the usage of memory mechanisms, and hold for a rich class of objectives provided certain conditions of well-preparation of the hyperparameters and the initial datum. In a second step, at least for the case without memory effects, we provide a quantitative result about the mean-field approximation of particle swarm optimization, which specifies the convergence of the interacting particle system to the associated mean-field limit. Combining these two results allows for global convergence guarantees of the numerical particle swarm optimization method with provable polynomial complexity. To demonstrate the applicability of the method we propose an efficient and parallelizable implementation, which is tested in particular on a competitive and well-understood high-dimensional benchmark problem in machine learning.

In this paper, we consider the topological interference management (TIM) problem in a dynamic setting, where an adversary perturbs network topology to prevent the exploitation of sophisticated coding opportunities (e.g., interference alignment). Focusing on a special class of network topology - chordal networks - we investigate algorithmic aspects of the TIM problem under adversarial topology perturbation. In particular, given the adversarial perturbation with respect to edge insertion/deletion, we propose a dynamic graph coloring algorithm that allows for a constant number of re-coloring updates against each inserted/deleted edge to achieve the information-theoretic optimality. This is a sharp reduction of the general graph re-coloring, whose optimal number of updates scales as the size of the network, thanks to the delicate exploitation of the structural properties of chordal graph classes.

Decision-guided perspectives on model uncertainty expand traditional statistical thinking about managing, comparing and combining inferences from sets of models. Bayesian predictive decision synthesis (BPDS) advances conceptual and theoretical foundations, and defines new methodology that explicitly integrates decision-analytic outcomes into the evaluation, comparison and potential combination of candidate models. BPDS extends recent theoretical and practical advances based on both Bayesian predictive synthesis and empirical goal-focused model uncertainty analysis. This is enabled by development of a novel subjective Bayesian perspective on model weighting in predictive decision settings. Illustrations come from applied contexts including optimal design for regression prediction and sequential time series forecasting for financial portfolio decisions.

We propose a co-variance corrected random batch method for interacting particle systems. By establishing a certain entropic central limit theorem, we provide entropic convergence guarantees for the law of the entire trajectories of all particles of the proposed method to the law of the trajectories of the discrete time interacting particle system whenever the batch size $B \gg (\alpha n)^{\frac{1}{3}}$ (where $n$ is the number of particles and $\alpha$ is the time discretization parameter). This in turn implies that the outputs of these methods are nearly \emph{statistically indistinguishable} when $B$ is even moderately large. Previous works mainly considered convergence in Wasserstein distance with required stringent assumptions on the potentials or the bounds had an exponential dependence on the time horizon. This work makes minimal assumptions on the interaction potentials and in particular establishes that even when the particle trajectories diverge to infinity, they do so in the same way for both the methods. Such guarantees are very useful in light of the recent advances in interacting particle based algorithms for sampling.

Performance assessment and optimization for networks jointly performing caching, computing, and communication (3C) has recently drawn significant attention because many emerging applications require 3C functionality. However, studies in the literature mostly focus on the particular algorithms and setups of such networks, while their theoretical understanding and characterization has been less explored. To fill this gap, this paper conducts the asymptotic (scaling-law) analysis for the delay-outage tradeoff of noise-limited wireless edge networks with joint 3C. In particular, assuming the user requests for different tasks following a Zipf distribution, we derive the analytical expression for the optimal caching policy. Based on this, we next derive the closed-form expression for the optimum outage probability as a function of delay and other network parameters for the case that the Zipf parameter is smaller than 1. Then, for the case that the Zipf parameter is larger than 1, we derive the closed-form expressions for upper and lower bounds of the optimum outage probability. We provide insights and interpretations based on the derived expressions. Computer simulations validate our analytical results and insights.

Plagiarism in introductory programming courses is an enormous challenge for both students and institutions. For students, relying on the work of others too early in their academic development can make it impossible to acquire necessary skills for independent success in the future. For institutions, widespread student cheating can dilute the quality of the educational experience being offered. Currently available solutions consider only pairwise comparisons between student submissions and focus on punitive deterrence. Our approach instead relies on a class-wide statistical characterization that can be clearly and securely shared with students via an intuitive new p-value representing independence of student effort. A pairwise, compression-based similarity detection algorithm captures relationships between assignments more accurately. An automated deterrence system is used to warn students that their behavior is being closely monitored. High-confidence instances are made directly available for instructor review using our open-source toolkit. An unbiased scoring system aids students and the instructor in understanding true independence of effort. Preliminary results indicate that the system can provide meaningful measurements of independence from week one, improving the efficacy of technical education.

This paper investigates the problem of regret minimization in linear time-varying (LTV) dynamical systems. Due to the simultaneous presence of uncertainty and non-stationarity, designing online control algorithms for unknown LTV systems remains a challenging task. At a cost of NP-hard offline planning, prior works have introduced online convex optimization algorithms, although they suffer from nonparametric rate of regret. In this paper, we propose the first computationally tractable online algorithm with regret guarantees that avoids offline planning over the state linear feedback policies. Our algorithm is based on the optimism in the face of uncertainty (OFU) principle in which we optimistically select the best model in a high confidence region. Our algorithm is then more explorative when compared to previous approaches. To overcome non-stationarity, we propose either a restarting strategy (R-OFU) or a sliding window (SW-OFU) strategy. With proper configuration, our algorithm is attains sublinear regret $O(T^{2/3})$. These algorithms utilize data from the current phase for tracking variations on the system dynamics. We corroborate our theoretical findings with numerical experiments, which highlight the effectiveness of our methods. To the best of our knowledge, our study establishes the first model-based online algorithm with regret guarantees under LTV dynamical systems.

The quintessential model-based reinforcement-learning agent iteratively refines its estimates or prior beliefs about the true underlying model of the environment. Recent empirical successes in model-based reinforcement learning with function approximation, however, eschew the true model in favor of a surrogate that, while ignoring various facets of the environment, still facilitates effective planning over behaviors. Recently formalized as the value equivalence principle, this algorithmic technique is perhaps unavoidable as real-world reinforcement learning demands consideration of a simple, computationally-bounded agent interacting with an overwhelmingly complex environment, whose underlying dynamics likely exceed the agent's capacity for representation. In this work, we consider the scenario where agent limitations may entirely preclude identifying an exactly value-equivalent model, immediately giving rise to a trade-off between identifying a model that is simple enough to learn while only incurring bounded sub-optimality. To address this problem, we introduce an algorithm that, using rate-distortion theory, iteratively computes an approximately-value-equivalent, lossy compression of the environment which an agent may feasibly target in lieu of the true model. We prove an information-theoretic, Bayesian regret bound for our algorithm that holds for any finite-horizon, episodic sequential decision-making problem. Crucially, our regret bound can be expressed in one of two possible forms, providing a performance guarantee for finding either the simplest model that achieves a desired sub-optimality gap or, alternatively, the best model given a limit on agent capacity.

This paper presents a novel control approach for autonomous systems operating under uncertainty. We combine Model Predictive Path Integral (MPPI) control with Covariance Steering (CS) theory to obtain a robust controller for general nonlinear systems. The proposed Covariance-Controlled Model Predictive Path Integral (CC-MPPI) controller addresses the performance degradation observed in some MPPI implementations owing to unexpected disturbances and uncertainties. Namely, in cases where the environment changes too fast or the simulated dynamics during the MPPI rollouts do not capture the noise and uncertainty in the actual dynamics, the baseline MPPI implementation may lead to divergence. The proposed CC-MPPI controller avoids divergence by controlling the dispersion of the rollout trajectories at the end of the prediction horizon. Furthermore, the CC-MPPI has adjustable trajectory sampling distributions that can be changed according to the environment to achieve efficient sampling. Numerical examples using a ground vehicle navigating in challenging environments demonstrate the proposed approach.

An approach is presented treating decision theory as a probabilistic theory based on quantum techniques. Accurate definitions are given and thorough analysis is accomplished for the quantum probabilities describing the choice between separate alternatives, sequential alternatives characterizing conditional quantum probabilities, and behavioral quantum probabilities taking into account rational-irrational duality of decision making. The comparison between quantum and classical probabilities is explained. The analysis demonstrates that quantum probabilities serve as an essentially more powerful tool of characterizing various decision-making situations including the influence of psychological behavioral effects.