Extreme heatwave sampling and prediction with analog Markov chain and comparisons with deep learning
We present a data-driven emulator, stochastic weather generator (SWG), suitable for estimating probabilities of prolonged heatwaves in France and Scandinavia. This emulator is based on the method of analogs of circulation to which we add temperature and soil moisture as predictor fields. We train the emulator on an intermediate complexity climate model run and show that it is capable of predicting conditional probabilities (forecasting) of heatwaves out of sample. Special attention is payed that this prediction is evaluated using proper score appropriate for rare events. To accelerate the computation of analogs dimensionality reduction techniques are applied and the performance is evaluated. The probabilistic prediction achieved with SWG is compared with the one achieved with Convolutional Neural Network (CNN). With the availability of hundreds of years of training data CNNs perform better at the task of probabilistic prediction. In addition, we show that the SWG emulator trained on 80 years of data is capable of estimating extreme return times of order of thousands of years for heatwaves longer than several days more precisely than the fit based on generalised extreme value distribution. Finally, the quality of its synthetic extreme teleconnection patterns obtained with stochastic weather generator is studied. We showcase two examples of such synthetic teleconnection patterns for heatwaves in France and Scandinavia that compare favorably to the very long climate model control run.
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In this research work, we propose a high-order time adapted scheme for pricing a coupled system of fixed-free boundary constant elasticity of variance (CEV) model on both equidistant and locally refined space-grid. The performance of our method is substantially enhanced to improve irregularities in the model which are both inherent and induced. Furthermore, the system of coupled PDEs is strongly nonlinear and involves several time-dependent coefficients that include the first-order derivative of the early exercise boundary. These coefficients are approximated from a fourth-order analytical approximation which is derived using a regularized square-root function. The semi-discrete equation for the option value and delta sensitivity is obtained from a non-uniform fourth-order compact finite difference scheme. Fifth-order 5(4) Dormand-Prince time integration method is used to solve the coupled system of discrete equations. Enhancing the performance of our proposed method with local mesh refinement and adaptive strategies enables us to obtain highly accurate solution with very coarse space grids, hence reducing computational runtime substantially. We further verify the performance of our methodology as compared with some of the well-known and better-performing existing methods.
Training deep learning models for video classification from audio-visual data commonly requires immense amounts of labeled training data collected via a costly process. A challenging and underexplored, yet much cheaper, setup is few-shot learning from video data. In particular, the inherently multi-modal nature of video data with sound and visual information has not been leveraged extensively for the few-shot video classification task. Therefore, we introduce a unified audio-visual few-shot video classification benchmark on three datasets, i.e. the VGGSound-FSL, UCF-FSL, ActivityNet-FSL datasets, where we adapt and compare ten methods. In addition, we propose AV-DIFF, a text-to-feature diffusion framework, which first fuses the temporal and audio-visual features via cross-modal attention and then generates multi-modal features for the novel classes. We show that AV-DIFF obtains state-of-the-art performance on our proposed benchmark for audio-visual (generalised) few-shot learning. Our benchmark paves the way for effective audio-visual classification when only limited labeled data is available. Code and data are available at //github.com/ExplainableML/AVDIFF-GFSL.
In this paper we establish limit theorems for power variations of stochastic processes controlled by fractional Brownian motions with Hurst parameter $H\leq 1/2$. We show that the power variations of such processes can be decomposed into the mix of several weighted random sums plus some remainder terms, and the convergences of power variations are dominated by different combinations of those weighted sums depending on whether $H<1/4$, $H=1/4$, or $H>1/4$. We show that when $H\geq 1/4$ the centered power variation converges stably at the rate $n^{-1/2}$, and when $H<1/4$ it converges in probability at the rate $n^{-2H}$. We determine the limit of the mixed weighted sum based on a rough path approach developed in \cite{LT20}.
Multiagent systems aim to accomplish highly complex learning tasks through decentralised consensus seeking dynamics and their use has garnered a great deal of attention in the signal processing and computational intelligence societies. This article examines the behaviour of multiagent networked systems with nonlinear filtering/learning dynamics. To this end, a general formulation for the actions of an agent in multiagent networked systems is presented and conditions for achieving a cohesive learning behaviour is given. Importantly, application of the so derived framework in distributed and federated learning scenarios are presented.
A novel and fully distributed optimization method is proposed for the distributed robust convex program (DRCP) over a time-varying unbalanced directed network without imposing any differentiability assumptions. Firstly, a tractable approximated DRCP (ADRCP) is introduced by discretizing the semi-infinite constraints into a finite number of inequality constraints and restricting the right-hand side of the constraints with a proper positive parameter, which will be iteratively solved by a random-fixed projection algorithm. Secondly, a cutting-surface consensus approach is proposed for locating an approximately optimal consensus solution of the DRCP with guaranteed feasibility. This approach is based on iteratively approximating the DRCP by successively reducing the restriction parameter of the right-hand constraints and populating the cutting-surfaces into the existing finite set of constraints. Thirdly, to ensure finite-time convergence of the distributed optimization, a distributed termination algorithm is developed based on uniformly local consensus and zeroth-order optimality under uniformly strongly connected graphs. Fourthly, it is proved that the cutting-surface consensus approach converges within a finite number of iterations. Finally, the effectiveness of the approach is illustrated through a numerical example.
A multi-step extended maximum residual Kaczmarz method is presented for the solution of the large inconsistent linear system of equations by using the multi-step iterations technique. Theoretical analysis proves the proposed method is convergent and gives an upper bound on its convergence rate. Numerical experiments show that the proposed method is effective and outperforms the existing extended Kaczmarz methods in terms of the number of iteration steps and the computational costs.
This paper introduces a formulation of the variable density incompressible Navier-Stokes equations by modifying the nonlinear terms in a consistent way. For Galerkin discretizations, the formulation leads to full discrete conservation of mass, squared density, momentum, angular momentum and kinetic energy without the divergence-free constraint being strongly enforced. In addition to favorable conservation properties, the formulation is shown to make the density field invariant to global shifts. The effect of viscous regularizations on conservation properties is also investigated. Numerical tests validate the theory developed in this work. The new formulation shows superior performance compared to other formulations from the literature, both in terms of accuracy for smooth problems and in terms of robustness.
Compositional data arise in many real-life applications and versatile methods for properly analyzing this type of data in the regression context are needed. When parametric assumptions do not hold or are difficult to verify, non-parametric regression models can provide a convenient alternative method for prediction. To this end, we consider an extension to the classical $k$--$NN$ regression, termed $\alpha$--$k$--$NN$ regression, that yields a highly flexible non-parametric regression model for compositional data through the use of the $\alpha$-transformation. Unlike many of the recommended regression models for compositional data, zeros values (which commonly occur in practice) are not problematic and they can be incorporated into the proposed models without modification. Extensive simulation studies and real-life data analyses highlight the advantage of using these non-parametric regressions for complex relationships between the compositional response data and Euclidean predictor variables. Both suggest that $\alpha$--$k$--$NN$ regression can lead to more accurate predictions compared to current regression models which assume a, sometimes restrictive, parametric relationship with the predictor variables. In addition, the $\alpha$--$k$--$NN$ regression, in contrast to current regression techniques, enjoys a high computational efficiency rendering it highly attractive for use with large scale, massive, or big data.
In this paper, two novel classes of implicit exponential Runge-Kutta (ERK) methods are studied for solving highly oscillatory systems. Firstly, we analyze the symplectic conditions for two kinds of exponential integrators and obtain the symplectic method. In order to effectively solve highly oscillatory problems, we try to design the highly accurate implicit ERK integrators. By comparing the Taylor series expansion of numerical solution with exact solution, it can be verified that the order conditions of two new kinds of exponential methods are identical to classical Runge-Kutta (RK) methods, which implies that using the coefficients of RK methods, some highly accurate numerical methods are directly formulated. Furthermore, we also investigate the linear stability properties for these exponential methods. Finally, numerical results not only display the long time energy preservation of the symplectic method, but also present the accuracy and efficiency of these formulated methods in comparison with standard ERK methods.
Graph-centric artificial intelligence (graph AI) has achieved remarkable success in modeling interacting systems prevalent in nature, from dynamical systems in biology to particle physics. The increasing heterogeneity of data calls for graph neural architectures that can combine multiple inductive biases. However, combining data from various sources is challenging because appropriate inductive bias may vary by data modality. Multimodal learning methods fuse multiple data modalities while leveraging cross-modal dependencies to address this challenge. Here, we survey 140 studies in graph-centric AI and realize that diverse data types are increasingly brought together using graphs and fed into sophisticated multimodal models. These models stratify into image-, language-, and knowledge-grounded multimodal learning. We put forward an algorithmic blueprint for multimodal graph learning based on this categorization. The blueprint serves as a way to group state-of-the-art architectures that treat multimodal data by choosing appropriately four different components. This effort can pave the way for standardizing the design of sophisticated multimodal architectures for highly complex real-world problems.
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