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Advances in large language models (LLMs) have driven an explosion of interest about their societal impacts. Much of the discourse around how they will impact social equity has been cautionary or negative, focusing on questions like "how might LLMs be biased and how would we mitigate those biases?" This is a vital discussion: the ways in which AI generally, and LLMs specifically, can entrench biases have been well-documented. But equally vital, and much less discussed, is the more opportunity-focused counterpoint: "what promising applications do LLMs enable that could promote equity?" If LLMs are to enable a more equitable world, it is not enough just to play defense against their biases and failure modes. We must also go on offense, applying them positively to equity-enhancing use cases to increase opportunities for underserved groups and reduce societal discrimination. There are many choices which determine the impact of AI, and a fundamental choice very early in the pipeline is the problems we choose to apply it to. If we focus only later in the pipeline -- making LLMs marginally more fair as they facilitate use cases which intrinsically entrench power -- we will miss an important opportunity to guide them to equitable impacts. Here, we highlight the emerging potential of LLMs to promote equity by presenting four newly possible, promising research directions, while keeping risks and cautionary points in clear view.

Dependence is undoubtedly a central concept in statistics. Though, it proves difficult to locate in the literature a formal definition which goes beyond the self-evident 'dependence = non-independence'. This absence has allowed the term 'dependence' and its declination to be used vaguely and indiscriminately for qualifying a variety of disparate notions, leading to numerous incongruities. For example, the classical Pearson's, Spearman's or Kendall's correlations are widely regarded as 'dependence measures' of major interest, in spite of returning 0 in some cases of deterministic relationships between the variables at play, evidently not measuring dependence at all. Arguing that research on such a fundamental topic would benefit from a slightly more rigid framework, this paper suggests a general definition of the dependence between two random variables defined on the same probability space. Natural enough for aligning with intuition, that definition is still sufficiently precise for allowing unequivocal identification of a 'universal' representation of the dependence structure of any bivariate distribution. Links between this representation and familiar concepts are highlighted, and ultimately, the idea of a dependence measure based on that universal representation is explored and shown to satisfy Renyi's postulates.

Microring resonators (MRRs) are promising devices for time-delay photonic reservoir computing, but the impact of the different physical effects taking place in the MRRs on the reservoir computing performance is yet to be fully understood. We numerically analyze the impact of linear losses as well as thermo-optic and free-carrier effects relaxation times on the prediction error of the time-series task NARMA-10. We demonstrate the existence of three regions, defined by the input power and the frequency detuning between the optical source and the microring resonance, that reveal the cavity transition from linear to nonlinear regimes. One of these regions offers very low error in time-series prediction under relatively low input power and number of nodes while the other regions either lack nonlinearity or become unstable. This study provides insight into the design of the MRR and the optimization of its physical properties for improving the prediction performance of time-delay reservoir computing.

We introduce new approaches for forecasting IBNR (Incurred But Not Reported) frequencies by leveraging individual claims data, which includes accident date, reporting delay, and possibly additional features for every reported claim. A key element of our proposal involves computing development factors, which may be influenced by both the accident date and other features. These development factors serve as the basis for predictions. While we assume close to continuous observations of accident date and reporting delay, the development factors can be expressed at any level of granularity, such as months, quarters, or year and predictions across different granularity levels exhibit coherence. The calculation of development factors relies on the estimation of a hazard function in reverse development time, and we present three distinct methods for estimating this function: the Cox proportional hazard model, a feed-forward neural network, and xgboost (eXtreme gradient boosting). In all three cases, estimation is based on the same partial likelihood that accommodates left truncation and ties in the data. While the first case is a semi-parametric model that assumes in parts a log linear structure, the two machine learning approaches only assume that the baseline and the other factors are multiplicatively separable. Through an extensive simulation study and real-world data application, our approach demonstrates promising results. This paper comes with an accompanying R-package, $\texttt{ReSurv}$, which can be accessed at \url{//github.com/edhofman/ReSurv}

Nowadays, machine learning algorithms continue to grow in complexity and require a substantial amount of computational resources and energy. For these reasons, there is a growing awareness of the development of new green algorithms and distributed AI can contribute to this. Federated learning (FL) is one of the most active research lines in machine learning, as it allows the training of collaborative models in a distributed way, an interesting option in many real-world environments, such as the Internet of Things, allowing the use of these models in edge computing devices. In this work, we present a FL method, based on a neural network without hidden layers, capable of generating a global collaborative model in a single training round, unlike traditional FL methods that require multiple rounds for convergence. This allows obtaining an effective and efficient model that simplifies the management of the training process. Moreover, this method preserve data privacy by design, a crucial aspect in current data protection regulations. We conducted experiments with large datasets and a large number of federated clients. Despite being based on a network model without hidden layers, it maintains in all cases competitive accuracy results compared to more complex state-of-the-art machine learning models. Furthermore, we show that the method performs equally well in both identically and non-identically distributed scenarios. Finally, it is an environmentally friendly algorithm as it allows significant energy savings during the training process compared to its centralized counterpart.

High-order tensor methods for solving both convex and nonconvex optimization problems have generated significant research interest, leading to algorithms with optimal global rates of convergence and local rates that are faster than Newton's method. On each iteration, these methods require the unconstrained local minimization of a (potentially nonconvex) multivariate polynomial of degree higher than two, constructed using third-order (or higher) derivative information, and regularized by an appropriate power of regularization. Developing efficient techniques for solving such subproblems is an ongoing topic of research, and this paper addresses the case of the third-order tensor subproblem. We propose the CQR algorithmic framework, for minimizing a nonconvex Cubic multivariate polynomial with Quartic Regularisation, by minimizing a sequence of local quadratic models that incorporate simple cubic and quartic terms. The role of the cubic term is to crudely approximate local tensor information, while the quartic one controls model regularization and progress. We provide necessary and sufficient optimality conditions that fully characterise the global minimizers of these cubic-quartic models. We then turn these conditions into secular equations that can be solved using nonlinear eigenvalue techniques. We show, using our optimality characterisations, that a CQR algorithmic variant has the optimal-order evaluation complexity of $\mathcal{O}(\epsilon^{-3/2})$ when applied to minimizing our quartically-regularised cubic subproblem, which can be further improved in special cases. We propose practical CQR variants that use local tensor information to construct the local cubic-quartic models. We test these variants numerically and observe them to be competitive with ARC and other subproblem solvers on typical instances and even superior on ill-conditioned subproblems with special structure.

Disability insurance claims are often affected by lengthy reporting delays and adjudication processes. The classic multistate life insurance modeling framework is ill-suited to handle such information delays since the cash flow and available information can no longer be based on the biometric multistate process determining the contractual payments. We propose a new individual reserving model for disability insurance schemes which describes the claim evolution in real-time. Under suitable independence assumptions between the available information and the underlying biometric multistate process, we show that these new reserves may be calculated as natural modifications of the classic reserves. We propose suitable parametric estimators for the model constituents and a real data application shows the practical relevance of our concepts and results.

Artificial neural networks thrive in solving the classification problem for a particular rigid task, acquiring knowledge through generalized learning behaviour from a distinct training phase. The resulting network resembles a static entity of knowledge, with endeavours to extend this knowledge without targeting the original task resulting in a catastrophic forgetting. Continual learning shifts this paradigm towards networks that can continually accumulate knowledge over different tasks without the need to retrain from scratch. We focus on task incremental classification, where tasks arrive sequentially and are delineated by clear boundaries. Our main contributions concern 1) a taxonomy and extensive overview of the state-of-the-art, 2) a novel framework to continually determine the stability-plasticity trade-off of the continual learner, 3) a comprehensive experimental comparison of 11 state-of-the-art continual learning methods and 4 baselines. We empirically scrutinize method strengths and weaknesses on three benchmarks, considering Tiny Imagenet and large-scale unbalanced iNaturalist and a sequence of recognition datasets. We study the influence of model capacity, weight decay and dropout regularization, and the order in which the tasks are presented, and qualitatively compare methods in terms of required memory, computation time, and storage.

Breast cancer remains a global challenge, causing over 1 million deaths globally in 2018. To achieve earlier breast cancer detection, screening x-ray mammography is recommended by health organizations worldwide and has been estimated to decrease breast cancer mortality by 20-40%. Nevertheless, significant false positive and false negative rates, as well as high interpretation costs, leave opportunities for improving quality and access. To address these limitations, there has been much recent interest in applying deep learning to mammography; however, obtaining large amounts of annotated data poses a challenge for training deep learning models for this purpose, as does ensuring generalization beyond the populations represented in the training dataset. Here, we present an annotation-efficient deep learning approach that 1) achieves state-of-the-art performance in mammogram classification, 2) successfully extends to digital breast tomosynthesis (DBT; "3D mammography"), 3) detects cancers in clinically-negative prior mammograms of cancer patients, 4) generalizes well to a population with low screening rates, and 5) outperforms five-out-of-five full-time breast imaging specialists by improving absolute sensitivity by an average of 14%. Our results demonstrate promise towards software that can improve the accuracy of and access to screening mammography worldwide.

Recent advances in 3D fully convolutional networks (FCN) have made it feasible to produce dense voxel-wise predictions of volumetric images. In this work, we show that a multi-class 3D FCN trained on manually labeled CT scans of several anatomical structures (ranging from the large organs to thin vessels) can achieve competitive segmentation results, while avoiding the need for handcrafting features or training class-specific models. To this end, we propose a two-stage, coarse-to-fine approach that will first use a 3D FCN to roughly define a candidate region, which will then be used as input to a second 3D FCN. This reduces the number of voxels the second FCN has to classify to ~10% and allows it to focus on more detailed segmentation of the organs and vessels. We utilize training and validation sets consisting of 331 clinical CT images and test our models on a completely unseen data collection acquired at a different hospital that includes 150 CT scans, targeting three anatomical organs (liver, spleen, and pancreas). In challenging organs such as the pancreas, our cascaded approach improves the mean Dice score from 68.5 to 82.2%, achieving the highest reported average score on this dataset. We compare with a 2D FCN method on a separate dataset of 240 CT scans with 18 classes and achieve a significantly higher performance in small organs and vessels. Furthermore, we explore fine-tuning our models to different datasets. Our experiments illustrate the promise and robustness of current 3D FCN based semantic segmentation of medical images, achieving state-of-the-art results. Our code and trained models are available for download: //github.com/holgerroth/3Dunet_abdomen_cascade.