With only observational data on two variables, and without other assumptions, it is not possible to infer which one causes the other. Much of the causal literature has focused on guaranteeing identifiability of causal direction in statistical models for datasets where strong assumptions hold, such as additive noise or restrictions on parameter count. These methods are then subsequently tested on realistic datasets, most of which violate their assumptions. Building on previous attempts, we show how to use causal assumptions within the Bayesian framework. This allows us to specify models with realistic assumptions, while also encoding independent causal mechanisms, leading to an asymmetry between the causal directions. Identifying causal direction then becomes a Bayesian model selection problem. We analyse why Bayesian model selection works for known identifiable cases and flexible model classes, while also providing correctness guarantees about its behaviour. To demonstrate our approach, we construct a Bayesian non-parametric model that can flexibly model the joint. We then outperform previous methods on a wide range of benchmark datasets with varying data generating assumptions showing the usefulness of our method.
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Model selection in the context of bandit optimization is a challenging problem, as it requires balancing exploration and exploitation not only for action selection, but also for model selection. One natural approach is to rely on online learning algorithms that treat different models as experts. Existing methods, however, scale poorly ($\text{poly}M$) with the number of models $M$ in terms of their regret. Our key insight is that, for model selection in linear bandits, we can emulate full-information feedback to the online learner with a favorable bias-variance trade-off. This allows us to develop ALEXP, which has an exponentially improved ($\log M$) dependence on $M$ for its regret. ALEXP has anytime guarantees on its regret, and neither requires knowledge of the horizon $n$, nor relies on an initial purely exploratory stage. Our approach utilizes a novel time-uniform analysis of the Lasso, establishing a new connection between online learning and high-dimensional statistics.
Debiased machine learning estimators for nonparametric inference of smooth functionals of the data-generating distribution can suffer from excessive variability and instability. For this reason, practitioners may resort to simpler models based on parametric or semiparametric assumptions. However, such simplifying assumptions may fail to hold, and estimates may then be biased due to model misspecification. To address this problem, we propose Adaptive Debiased Machine Learning (ADML), a nonparametric framework that combines data-driven model selection and debiased machine learning techniques to construct asymptotically linear, adaptive, and superefficient estimators for pathwise differentiable functionals. By learning model structure directly from data, ADML avoids the bias introduced by model misspecification and remains free from the restrictions of parametric and semiparametric models. While they may exhibit irregular behavior for the target parameter in a nonparametric statistical model, we demonstrate that ADML estimators provides regular and locally uniformly valid inference for a projection-based oracle parameter. Importantly, this oracle parameter agrees with the original target parameter for distributions within an unknown but correctly specified oracle statistical submodel that is learned from the data. This finding implies that there is no penalty, in a local asymptotic sense, for conducting data-driven model selection compared to having prior knowledge of the oracle submodel and oracle parameter. To demonstrate the practical applicability of our theory, we provide a broad class of ADML estimators for estimating the average treatment effect in adaptive partially linear regression models.
Hypertension is a highly prevalent chronic medical condition and a strong risk factor for cardiovascular disease (CVD), as it accounts for more than $45\%$ of CVD. The relation between blood pressure (BP) and its risk factors cannot be explored clearly by standard linear models. Although the fractional polynomials (FPs) can act as a concise and accurate formula for examining smooth relationships between response and predictors, modelling conditional mean functions observes the partial view of a distribution of response variable, as the distributions of many response variables such as BP measures are typically skew. Then modelling 'average' BP may link to CVD but extremely high BP could explore CVD insight deeply and precisely. So, existing mean-based FP approaches for modelling the relationship between factors and BP cannot answer key questions in need. Conditional quantile functions with FPs provide a comprehensive relationship between the response variable and its predictors, such as median and extremely high BP measures that may be often required in practical data analysis generally. To the best of our knowledge, this is new in the literature. Therefore, in this paper, we employ Bayesian variable selection with quantile-dependent prior for the FP model to propose a Bayesian variable selection with parametric nonlinear quantile regression model. The objective is to examine a nonlinear relationship between BP measures and their risk factors across median and upper quantile levels using data extracted from the 2007-2008 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). The variable selection in the model analysis identified that the nonlinear terms of continuous variables (body mass index, age), and categorical variables (ethnicity, gender and marital status) were selected as important predictors in the model across all quantile levels.
Valid statistical inference is challenging when the sample is subject to unknown selection bias. Data integration can be used to correct for selection bias when we have a parallel probability sample from the same population with some common measurements. How to model and estimate the selection probability or the propensity score (PS) of a non-probability sample using an independent probability sample is the challenging part of the data integration. We approach this difficult problem by employing multiple candidate models for PS combined with empirical likelihood. By incorporating multiple propensity score models into the internal bias calibration constraint in the empirical likelihood setup, the selection bias can be eliminated so long as the multiple candidate models contain a true PS model. The bias calibration constraint under the multiple PS models is called multiple bias calibration. Multiple PS models can include both missing-at-random and missing-not-at-random models. Asymptotic properties are discussed, and some limited simulation studies are presented to compare the proposed method with some existing competitors. Plasmode simulation studies using the Culture \& Community in a Time of Crisis dataset demonstrate the practical usage and advantages of the proposed method.
In many modern statistical problems, the limited available data must be used both to develop the hypotheses to test, and to test these hypotheses-that is, both for exploratory and confirmatory data analysis. Reusing the same dataset for both exploration and testing can lead to massive selection bias, leading to many false discoveries. Selective inference is a framework that allows for performing valid inference even when the same data is reused for exploration and testing. In this work, we are interested in the problem of selective inference for data clustering, where a clustering procedure is used to hypothesize a separation of the data points into a collection of subgroups, and we then wish to test whether these data-dependent clusters in fact represent meaningful differences within the data. Recent work by Gao et al. [2022] provides a framework for doing selective inference for this setting, where a hierarchical clustering algorithm is used for producing the cluster assignments, which was then extended to k-means clustering by Chen and Witten [2022]. Both these works rely on assuming a known covariance structure for the data, but in practice, the noise level needs to be estimated-and this is particularly challenging when the true cluster structure is unknown. In our work, we extend this work to the setting of noise with unknown variance, and provide a selective inference method for this more general setting. Empirical results show that our new method is better able to maintain high power while controlling Type I error when the true noise level is unknown.
This paper presents a novel approach to active learning that takes into account the non-independent and identically distributed (non-i.i.d.) structure of a clinical trial setting. There exists two types of clinical trials: retrospective and prospective. Retrospective clinical trials analyze data after treatment has been performed; prospective clinical trials collect data as treatment is ongoing. Typically, active learning approaches assume the dataset is i.i.d. when selecting training samples; however, in the case of clinical trials, treatment results in a dependency between the data collected at the current and past visits. Thus, we propose prospective active learning to overcome the limitations present in traditional active learning methods and apply it to disease detection in optical coherence tomography (OCT) images, where we condition on the time an image was collected to enforce the i.i.d. assumption. We compare our proposed method to the traditional active learning paradigm, which we refer to as retrospective in nature. We demonstrate that prospective active learning outperforms retrospective active learning in two different types of test settings.
Causal discovery and causal reasoning are classically treated as separate and consecutive tasks: one first infers the causal graph, and then uses it to estimate causal effects of interventions. However, such a two-stage approach is uneconomical, especially in terms of actively collected interventional data, since the causal query of interest may not require a fully-specified causal model. From a Bayesian perspective, it is also unnatural, since a causal query (e.g., the causal graph or some causal effect) can be viewed as a latent quantity subject to posterior inference -- other unobserved quantities that are not of direct interest (e.g., the full causal model) ought to be marginalized out in this process and contribute to our epistemic uncertainty. In this work, we propose Active Bayesian Causal Inference (ABCI), a fully-Bayesian active learning framework for integrated causal discovery and reasoning, which jointly infers a posterior over causal models and queries of interest. In our approach to ABCI, we focus on the class of causally-sufficient, nonlinear additive noise models, which we model using Gaussian processes. We sequentially design experiments that are maximally informative about our target causal query, collect the corresponding interventional data, and update our beliefs to choose the next experiment. Through simulations, we demonstrate that our approach is more data-efficient than several baselines that only focus on learning the full causal graph. This allows us to accurately learn downstream causal queries from fewer samples while providing well-calibrated uncertainty estimates for the quantities of interest.
The concept of causality plays an important role in human cognition . In the past few decades, causal inference has been well developed in many fields, such as computer science, medicine, economics, and education. With the advancement of deep learning techniques, it has been increasingly used in causal inference against counterfactual data. Typically, deep causal models map the characteristics of covariates to a representation space and then design various objective optimization functions to estimate counterfactual data unbiasedly based on the different optimization methods. This paper focuses on the survey of the deep causal models, and its core contributions are as follows: 1) we provide relevant metrics under multiple treatments and continuous-dose treatment; 2) we incorporate a comprehensive overview of deep causal models from both temporal development and method classification perspectives; 3) we assist a detailed and comprehensive classification and analysis of relevant datasets and source code.
This paper focuses on the expected difference in borrower's repayment when there is a change in the lender's credit decisions. Classical estimators overlook the confounding effects and hence the estimation error can be magnificent. As such, we propose another approach to construct the estimators such that the error can be greatly reduced. The proposed estimators are shown to be unbiased, consistent, and robust through a combination of theoretical analysis and numerical testing. Moreover, we compare the power of estimating the causal quantities between the classical estimators and the proposed estimators. The comparison is tested across a wide range of models, including linear regression models, tree-based models, and neural network-based models, under different simulated datasets that exhibit different levels of causality, different degrees of nonlinearity, and different distributional properties. Most importantly, we apply our approaches to a large observational dataset provided by a global technology firm that operates in both the e-commerce and the lending business. We find that the relative reduction of estimation error is strikingly substantial if the causal effects are accounted for correctly.
Causal inference is a critical research topic across many domains, such as statistics, computer science, education, public policy and economics, for decades. Nowadays, estimating causal effect from observational data has become an appealing research direction owing to the large amount of available data and low budget requirement, compared with randomized controlled trials. Embraced with the rapidly developed machine learning area, various causal effect estimation methods for observational data have sprung up. In this survey, we provide a comprehensive review of causal inference methods under the potential outcome framework, one of the well known causal inference framework. The methods are divided into two categories depending on whether they require all three assumptions of the potential outcome framework or not. For each category, both the traditional statistical methods and the recent machine learning enhanced methods are discussed and compared. The plausible applications of these methods are also presented, including the applications in advertising, recommendation, medicine and so on. Moreover, the commonly used benchmark datasets as well as the open-source codes are also summarized, which facilitate researchers and practitioners to explore, evaluate and apply the causal inference methods.
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