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We present a robust deep incremental learning framework for regression tasks on financial temporal tabular datasets which is built upon the incremental use of commonly available tabular and time series prediction models to adapt to distributional shifts typical of financial datasets. The framework uses a simple basic building block (decision trees) to build self-similar models of any required complexity to deliver robust performance under adverse situations such as regime changes, fat-tailed distributions, and low signal-to-noise ratios. As a detailed study, we demonstrate our scheme using XGBoost models trained on the Numerai dataset and show that a two layer deep ensemble of XGBoost models over different model snapshots delivers high quality predictions under different market regimes. We also show that the performance of XGBoost models with different number of boosting rounds in three scenarios (small, standard and large) is monotonically increasing with respect to model size and converges towards the generalisation upper bound. We also evaluate the robustness of the model under variability of different hyperparameters, such as model complexity and data sampling settings. Our model has low hardware requirements as no specialised neural architectures are used and each base model can be independently trained in parallel.

Although industrial anomaly detection (AD) technology has made significant progress in recent years, generating realistic anomalies and learning priors of normal remain challenging tasks. In this study, we propose an end-to-end industrial anomaly detection method called FractalAD. Training samples are obtained by synthesizing fractal images and patches from normal samples. This fractal anomaly generation method is designed to sample the full morphology of anomalies. Moreover, we designed a backbone knowledge distillation structure to extract prior knowledge contained in normal samples. The differences between a teacher and a student model are converted into anomaly attention using a cosine similarity attention module. The proposed method enables an end-to-end semantic segmentation network to be used for anomaly detection without adding any trainable parameters to the backbone and segmentation head, and has obvious advantages over other methods in training and inference speed.. The results of ablation studies confirmed the effectiveness of fractal anomaly generation and backbone knowledge distillation. The results of performance experiments showed that FractalAD achieved competitive results on the MVTec AD dataset and MVTec 3D-AD dataset compared with other state-of-the-art anomaly detection methods.

Complex networks are used to model many real-world systems. However, the dimensionality of these systems can make them challenging to analyze. Dimensionality reduction techniques like POD can be used in such cases. However, these models are susceptible to perturbations in the input data. We propose an algorithmic framework that combines techniques from pattern recognition (PR) and stochastic filtering theory to enhance the output of such models. The results of our study show that our method can improve the accuracy of the surrogate model under perturbed inputs. Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) are susceptible to adversarial attacks. However, recent research has revealed that Neural Ordinary Differential Equations (neural ODEs) exhibit robustness in specific applications. We benchmark our algorithmic framework with the neural ODE-based approach as a reference.

This paper introduces an innovative method for conducting conditional independence testing in high-dimensional data, facilitating the automated discovery of significant associations within distinct subgroups of a population, all while controlling the false discovery rate. This is achieved by expanding upon the model-X knockoff filter to provide more informative inferences. Our enhanced inferences can help explain sample heterogeneity and uncover interactions, making better use of the capabilities offered by modern machine learning models. Specifically, our method is able to leverage any model for the identification of data-driven hypotheses pertaining to interesting population subgroups. Then, it rigorously test these hypotheses without succumbing to selection bias. Importantly, our approach is efficient and does not require sample splitting. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our method through simulations and numerical experiments, using data derived from a randomized experiment featuring multiple treatment variables.

Unveiling the underlying governing equations of nonlinear dynamic systems remains a significant challenge, especially when encountering noisy observations and no prior knowledge available. This study proposes R-DISCOVER, a framework designed to robustly uncover open-form partial differential equations (PDEs) from limited and noisy data. The framework operates through two alternating update processes: discovering and embedding. The discovering phase employs symbolic representation and a reinforcement learning (RL)-guided hybrid PDE generator to efficiently produce diverse open-form PDEs with tree structures. A neural network-based predictive model fits the system response and serves as the reward evaluator for the generated PDEs. PDEs with superior fits are utilized to iteratively optimize the generator via the RL method and the best-performing PDE is selected by a parameter-free stability metric. The embedding phase integrates the initially identified PDE from the discovering process as a physical constraint into the predictive model for robust training. The traversal of PDE trees automates the construction of the computational graph and the embedding process without human intervention. Numerical experiments demonstrate our framework's capability to uncover governing equations from nonlinear dynamic systems with limited and highly noisy data and outperform other physics-informed neural network-based discovery methods. This work opens new potential for exploring real-world systems with limited understanding.

The proliferation of unmanned vehicles offers many opportunities for solving environmental sampling tasks with applications in resource monitoring and precision agriculture. Informative path planning (IPP) includes a family of methods which offer improvements over traditional surveying techniques for suggesting locations for observation collection. In this work, we present a novel solution to the IPP problem by using a coregionalized Gaussian processes to estimate a dynamic scalar field that varies in space and time. Our method improves previous approaches by using a composite kernel accounting for spatiotemporal correlations and at the same time, can be readily incorporated in existing IPP algorithms. Through extensive simulations, we show that our novel modeling approach leads to more accurate estimations when compared with formerly proposed methods that do not account for the temporal dimension.

Calibration is a pivotal aspect in predictive modeling, as it ensures that the predictions closely correspond with what we observe empirically. The contemporary calibration framework, however, is predominantly focused on prediction models where the outcome is a binary variable. We extend the logistic calibration framework to the generalized calibration framework which includes all members of the exponential family of distributions. We propose two different methods to estimate the calibration curve in this setting, a generalized linear model and a non-parametric smoother. In addition, we define two measures that summarize the calibration performance. The generalized calibration slope which quantifies the amount of over- or underfitting and the generalized calibration slope or calibration-in-the-large that measures the agreement between the global empirical average and the average predicted value. We provide an illustrative example using a simulated data set and hereby show how we can utilize the generalized calibration framework to assess the calibration of different types of prediction models.

In this paper we develop a novel neural network model for predicting implied volatility surface. Prior financial domain knowledge is taken into account. A new activation function that incorporates volatility smile is proposed, which is used for the hidden nodes that process the underlying asset price. In addition, financial conditions, such as the absence of arbitrage, the boundaries and the asymptotic slope, are embedded into the loss function. This is one of the very first studies which discuss a methodological framework that incorporates prior financial domain knowledge into neural network architecture design and model training. The proposed model outperforms the benchmarked models with the option data on the S&P 500 index over 20 years. More importantly, the domain knowledge is satisfied empirically, showing the model is consistent with the existing financial theories and conditions related to implied volatility surface.

Machine-learning models have demonstrated great success in learning complex patterns that enable them to make predictions about unobserved data. In addition to using models for prediction, the ability to interpret what a model has learned is receiving an increasing amount of attention. However, this increased focus has led to considerable confusion about the notion of interpretability. In particular, it is unclear how the wide array of proposed interpretation methods are related, and what common concepts can be used to evaluate them. We aim to address these concerns by defining interpretability in the context of machine learning and introducing the Predictive, Descriptive, Relevant (PDR) framework for discussing interpretations. The PDR framework provides three overarching desiderata for evaluation: predictive accuracy, descriptive accuracy and relevancy, with relevancy judged relative to a human audience. Moreover, to help manage the deluge of interpretation methods, we introduce a categorization of existing techniques into model-based and post-hoc categories, with sub-groups including sparsity, modularity and simulatability. To demonstrate how practitioners can use the PDR framework to evaluate and understand interpretations, we provide numerous real-world examples. These examples highlight the often under-appreciated role played by human audiences in discussions of interpretability. Finally, based on our framework, we discuss limitations of existing methods and directions for future work. We hope that this work will provide a common vocabulary that will make it easier for both practitioners and researchers to discuss and choose from the full range of interpretation methods.

Deep learning constitutes a recent, modern technique for image processing and data analysis, with promising results and large potential. As deep learning has been successfully applied in various domains, it has recently entered also the domain of agriculture. In this paper, we perform a survey of 40 research efforts that employ deep learning techniques, applied to various agricultural and food production challenges. We examine the particular agricultural problems under study, the specific models and frameworks employed, the sources, nature and pre-processing of data used, and the overall performance achieved according to the metrics used at each work under study. Moreover, we study comparisons of deep learning with other existing popular techniques, in respect to differences in classification or regression performance. Our findings indicate that deep learning provides high accuracy, outperforming existing commonly used image processing techniques.