We study hypothesis testing under communication constraints, where each sample is quantized before being revealed to a statistician. Without communication constraints, it is well known that the sample complexity of simple binary hypothesis testing is characterized by the Hellinger distance between the distributions. We show that the sample complexity of simple binary hypothesis testing under communication constraints is at most a logarithmic factor larger than in the unconstrained setting and this bound is tight. We develop a polynomial-time algorithm that achieves the aforementioned sample complexity. Our framework extends to robust hypothesis testing, where the distributions are corrupted in the total variation distance. Our proofs rely on a new reverse data processing inequality and a reverse Markov inequality, which may be of independent interest. For simple $M$-ary hypothesis testing, the sample complexity in the absence of communication constraints has a logarithmic dependence on $M$. We show that communication constraints can cause an exponential blow-up leading to $\Omega(M)$ sample complexity even for adaptive algorithms.
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Spatial data can exhibit dependence structures more complicated than can be represented using models that rely on the traditional assumptions of stationarity and isotropy. Several statistical methods have been developed to relax these assumptions. One in particular, the "spatial deformation approach" defines a transformation from the geographic space in which data are observed, to a latent space in which stationarity and isotropy are assumed to hold. Taking inspiration from this class of models, we develop a new model for spatially dependent data observed on graphs. Our method implies an embedding of the graph into Euclidean space wherein the covariance can be modeled using traditional covariance functions such as those from the Mat\'{e}rn family. This is done via a class of graph metrics compatible with such covariance functions. By estimating the edge weights which underlie these metrics, we can recover the "intrinsic distance" between nodes of a graph. We compare our model to existing methods for spatially dependent graph data, primarily conditional autoregressive (CAR) models and their variants and illustrate the advantages our approach has over traditional methods. We fit our model and competitors to bird abundance data for several species in North Carolina. We find that our model fits the data best, and provides insight into the interaction between species-specific spatial distributions and geography.
Heterogeneity is a dominant factor in the behaviour of many biological processes. Despite this, it is common for mathematical and statistical analyses to ignore biological heterogeneity as a source of variability in experimental data. Therefore, methods for exploring the identifiability of models that explicitly incorporate heterogeneity through variability in model parameters are relatively underdeveloped. We develop a new likelihood-based framework, based on moment matching, for inference and identifiability analysis of differential equation models that capture biological heterogeneity through parameters that vary according to probability distributions. As our novel method is based on an approximate likelihood function, it is highly flexible; we demonstrate identifiability analysis using both a frequentist approach based on profile likelihood, and a Bayesian approach based on Markov-chain Monte Carlo. Through three case studies, we demonstrate our method by providing a didactic guide to inference and identifiability analysis of hyperparameters that relate to the statistical moments of model parameters from independent observed data. Our approach has a computational cost comparable to analysis of models that neglect heterogeneity, a significant improvement over many existing alternatives. We demonstrate how analysis of random parameter models can aid better understanding of the sources of heterogeneity from biological data.
Mark-point dependence plays a critical role in research problems that can be fitted into the general framework of marked point processes. In this work, we focus on adjusting for mark-point dependence when estimating the mean and covariance functions of the mark process, given independent replicates of the marked point process. We assume that the mark process is a Gaussian process and the point process is a log-Gaussian Cox process, where the mark-point dependence is generated through the dependence between two latent Gaussian processes. Under this framework, naive local linear estimators ignoring the mark-point dependence can be severely biased. We show that this bias can be corrected using a local linear estimator of the cross-covariance function and establish uniform convergence rates of the bias-corrected estimators. Furthermore, we propose a test statistic based on local linear estimators for mark-point independence, which is shown to converge to an asymptotic normal distribution in a parametric $\sqrt{n}$-convergence rate. Model diagnostics tools are developed for key model assumptions and a robust functional permutation test is proposed for a more general class of mark-point processes. The effectiveness of the proposed methods is demonstrated using extensive simulations and applications to two real data examples.
Testing hypothesis of independence between two random elements on a joint alphabet is a fundamental exercise in statistics. Pearson's chi-squared test is an effective test for such a situation when the contingency table is relatively small. General statistical tools are lacking when the contingency data tables are large or sparse. A test based on generalized mutual information is derived and proposed in this article. The new test has two desired theoretical properties. First, the test statistic is asymptotically normal under the hypothesis of independence; consequently it does not require the knowledge of the row and column sizes of the contingency table. Second, the test is consistent and therefore it would detect any form of dependence structure in the general alternative space given a sufficiently large sample. In addition, simulation studies show that the proposed test converges faster than Pearson's chi-squared test when the contingency table is large or sparse.
This study demonstrates the existence of a testable condition for the identification of the causal effect of a treatment on an outcome in observational data, which relies on two sets of variables: observed covariates to be controlled for and a suspected instrument. Under a causal structure commonly found in empirical applications, the testable conditional independence of the suspected instrument and the outcome given the treatment and the covariates has two implications. First, the instrument is valid, i.e. it does not directly affect the outcome (other than through the treatment) and is unconfounded conditional on the covariates. Second, the treatment is unconfounded conditional on the covariates such that the treatment effect is identified. We suggest tests of this conditional independence based on machine learning methods that account for covariates in a data-driven way and investigate their asymptotic behavior and finite sample performance in a simulation study. We also apply our testing approach to evaluating the impact of fertility on female labor supply when using the sibling sex ratio of the first two children as supposed instrument, which by and large points to a violation of our testable implication for the moderate set of socio-economic covariates considered.
Block stacking storage systems are highly adaptable warehouse systems with low investment costs. With multiple, deep lanes they can achieve high storage densities, but accessing some unit loads can be time-consuming. The unit-load pre-marshalling problem sorts the unit loads in a block stacking storage system in off-peak time periods to prepare for upcoming orders. The goal is to find a minimum number of unit-load moves needed to sequence a storage bay in ascending order based on the retrieval priority group of each unit load. In this paper, we present two solution approaches for determining the minimum number of unit-load moves. We show that for storage bays with one access direction, it is possible to adapt existing, optimal tree search procedures and lower bound heuristics from the container pre-marshalling problem. For multiple access directions, we develop a novel, two-step solution approach based on a network flow model and an A* algorithm with an adapted lower bound that is applicable in all scenarios. We further analyze the performance of the presented solutions in computational experiments for randomly generated problem instances and show that multiple access directions greatly reduce both the total access time of unit loads and the required sorting effort.
We consider the problem of online allocation (matching, budgeted allocations, and assortments) of reusable resources where an adversarial sequence of resource requests is revealed over time and allocated resources are used/rented for a stochastic duration, drawn independently from known resource usage distributions. This problem is a fundamental generalization of well studied models in online matching and resource allocation. We give an algorithm that obtains the best possible competitive ratio of $(1-1/e)$ for general usage distributions and large resource capacities. At the heart of our algorithm is a new quantity that factors in the potential of reusability for each resource by (computationally) creating an asymmetry between identical units of the resource. In order to control the stochastic dependencies induced by reusability, we introduce a relaxed online algorithm that is only subject to fluid approximations of the stochastic elements in the problem. The output of this relaxed algorithm guides the overall algorithm. Finally, we establish competitive ratio guarantees by constructing a feasible solution to an LP free system of constraints. More generally, these ideas lead to a principled approach for integrating stochastic and combinatorial elements (such as reusability, customer choice, and budgeted allocations) in online resource allocation problems.
In a series of recent papers the spectral behavior of the matrix sequence $\{Y_nT_n(f)\}$ is studied in the sense of the spectral distribution, where $Y_n$ is the main antidiagonal (or flip matrix) and $T_n(f)$ is the Toeplitz matrix generated by the function $f$, with $f$ being Lebesgue integrable and with real Fourier coefficients. This kind of study is also motivated by computational purposes for the solution of the related large linear systems using the (preconditioned) MINRES algorithm. Here we complement the spectral study with more results holding both asymptotically and for a fixed dimension $n$, and with regard to eigenvalues, singular values, and eigenvectors of $T_n(f), Y_nT_n(f)$ and to several relationships among them: beside fast linear solvers, a further target is the design of ad hoc procedures for the computation of the related spectra via matrix-less algorithms, with a cost being linear in the number of computed eigenvalues. We emphasize that the challenge of the case of non-monotone generating functions is considered in the current work, for which the previous matrix-less algorithms fail. Numerical experiments are reported and commented, with the aim of showing in a visual way the theoretical analysis.
This PhD thesis contains several contributions to the field of statistical causal modeling. Statistical causal models are statistical models embedded with causal assumptions that allow for the inference and reasoning about the behavior of stochastic systems affected by external manipulation (interventions). This thesis contributes to the research areas concerning the estimation of causal effects, causal structure learning, and distributionally robust (out-of-distribution generalizing) prediction methods. We present novel and consistent linear and non-linear causal effects estimators in instrumental variable settings that employ data-dependent mean squared prediction error regularization. Our proposed estimators show, in certain settings, mean squared error improvements compared to both canonical and state-of-the-art estimators. We show that recent research on distributionally robust prediction methods has connections to well-studied estimators from econometrics. This connection leads us to prove that general K-class estimators possess distributional robustness properties. We, furthermore, propose a general framework for distributional robustness with respect to intervention-induced distributions. In this framework, we derive sufficient conditions for the identifiability of distributionally robust prediction methods and present impossibility results that show the necessity of several of these conditions. We present a new structure learning method applicable in additive noise models with directed trees as causal graphs. We prove consistency in a vanishing identifiability setup and provide a method for testing substructure hypotheses with asymptotic family-wise error control that remains valid post-selection. Finally, we present heuristic ideas for learning summary graphs of nonlinear time-series models.
Causality can be described in terms of a structural causal model (SCM) that carries information on the variables of interest and their mechanistic relations. For most processes of interest the underlying SCM will only be partially observable, thus causal inference tries to leverage any exposed information. Graph neural networks (GNN) as universal approximators on structured input pose a viable candidate for causal learning, suggesting a tighter integration with SCM. To this effect we present a theoretical analysis from first principles that establishes a novel connection between GNN and SCM while providing an extended view on general neural-causal models. We then establish a new model class for GNN-based causal inference that is necessary and sufficient for causal effect identification. Our empirical illustration on simulations and standard benchmarks validate our theoretical proofs.
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