The recent increase in yearly spacecraft launches and the high number of planned launches have raised questions about maintaining accessibility to space for all interested parties. A key to sustaining the future of space-flight is the ability to service malfunctioning - and actively remove dysfunctional spacecraft from orbit. Robotic platforms that autonomously perform these tasks are a topic of ongoing research and thus must undergo thorough testing before launch. For representative system-level testing, the European Space Agency (ESA) uses, among other things, the Orbital Robotics and GNC Lab (ORGL), a flat-floor facility where air-bearing based platforms exhibit free-floating behavior in three Degrees of Freedom (DoF). This work introduces a representative simulation of a free-floating platform in the testing environment and a software framework for controller development. Finally, this work proposes a controller within that framework for finding and following optimal trajectories between arbitrary states, which is evaluated in simulation and reality.
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In modern autonomy stacks, prediction modules are paramount to planning motions in the presence of other mobile agents. However, failures in prediction modules can mislead the downstream planner into making unsafe decisions. Indeed, the high uncertainty inherent to the task of trajectory forecasting ensures that such mispredictions occur frequently. Motivated by the need to improve safety of autonomous vehicles without compromising on their performance, we develop a probabilistic run-time monitor that detects when a "harmful" prediction failure occurs, i.e., a task-relevant failure detector. We achieve this by propagating trajectory prediction errors to the planning cost to reason about their impact on the AV. Furthermore, our detector comes equipped with performance measures on the false-positive and the false-negative rate and allows for data-free calibration. In our experiments we compared our detector with various others and found that our detector has the highest area under the receiver operator characteristic curve.
We study \textit{rescaled gradient dynamical systems} in a Hilbert space $\mathcal{H}$, where implicit discretization in a finite-dimensional Euclidean space leads to high-order methods for solving monotone equations (MEs). Our framework can be interpreted as a natural generalization of celebrated dual extrapolation method~\citep{Nesterov-2007-Dual} from first order to high order via appeal to the regularization toolbox of optimization theory~\citep{Nesterov-2021-Implementable, Nesterov-2021-Inexact}. More specifically, we establish the existence and uniqueness of a global solution and analyze the convergence properties of solution trajectories. We also present discrete-time counterparts of our high-order continuous-time methods, and we show that the $p^{th}$-order method achieves an ergodic rate of $O(k^{-(p+1)/2})$ in terms of a restricted merit function and a pointwise rate of $O(k^{-p/2})$ in terms of a residue function. Under regularity conditions, the restarted version of $p^{th}$-order methods achieves local convergence with the order $p \geq 2$. Notably, our methods are \textit{optimal} since they have matched the lower bound established for solving the monotone equation problems under a standard linear span assumption~\citep{Lin-2022-Perseus}.
Random forests are a sensible non-parametric model to predict competing risk data according to some covariates. However, there are currently no packages that can adequately handle large datasets ($n > 100,000$). We introduce a new R package, largeRCRF, using the random competing risks forest theory developed by Ishwaran et al. (2014). We verify our package's validity and accuracy through simulation studies and show that its results are similar enough to randomForestSRC while taking less time to run. We also demonstrate the package on a large dataset that was previously inaccessible, using hardware requirements that are available to most researchers.
We consider studies where multiple measures on an outcome variable are collected over time, but some subjects drop out before the end of follow up. Analyses of such data often proceed under either a 'last observation carried forward' or 'missing at random' assumption. We consider two alternative strategies for identification; the first is closely related to the difference-in-differences methodology in the causal inference literature. The second enables correction for violations of the parallel trend assumption, so long as one has access to a valid 'bespoke instrumental variable'. These are compared with existing approaches, first conceptually and then in an analysis of data from the Framingham Heart Study.
We consider prediction with expert advice when data are generated from distributions varying arbitrarily within an unknown constraint set. This semi-adversarial setting includes (at the extremes) the classical i.i.d. setting, when the unknown constraint set is restricted to be a singleton, and the unconstrained adversarial setting, when the constraint set is the set of all distributions. The Hedge algorithm -- long known to be minimax (rate) optimal in the adversarial regime -- was recently shown to be simultaneously minimax optimal for i.i.d. data. In this work, we propose to relax the i.i.d. assumption by seeking adaptivity at all levels of a natural ordering on constraint sets. We provide matching upper and lower bounds on the minimax regret at all levels, show that Hedge with deterministic learning rates is suboptimal outside of the extremes, and prove that one can adaptively obtain minimax regret at all levels. We achieve this optimal adaptivity using the follow-the-regularized-leader (FTRL) framework, with a novel adaptive regularization scheme that implicitly scales as the square root of the entropy of the current predictive distribution, rather than the entropy of the initial predictive distribution. Finally, we provide novel technical tools to study the statistical performance of FTRL along the semi-adversarial spectrum.
Space robotics applications, such as Active Space Debris Removal (ASDR), require representative testing before launch. A commonly used approach to emulate the microgravity environment in space is air-bearing based platforms on flat-floors, such as the European Space Agency's Orbital Robotics and GNC Lab (ORGL). This work proposes a control architecture for a floating platform at the ORGL, equipped with eight solenoid-valve-based thrusters and one reaction wheel. The control architecture consists of two main components: a trajectory planner that finds optimal trajectories connecting two states and a trajectory follower that follows any physically feasible trajectory. The controller is first evaluated within an introduced simulation, achieving a 100 % success rate at finding and following trajectories to the origin within a Monte-Carlo test. Individual trajectories are also successfully followed by the physical system. In this work, we showcase the ability of the controller to reject disturbances and follow a straight-line trajectory within tens of centimeters.
Incentive Designs for Stackelberg Games with a Large Number of Followers and their Mean-Field Limits
We study incentive designs for a class of stochastic Stackelberg games with one leader and a large number of (finite as well as infinite population of) followers. We investigate whether the leader can craft a strategy under a dynamic information structure that induces a desired behavior among the followers. For the finite population setting, under sufficient conditions, we show that there exist symmetric incentive strategies for the leader that attain approximately optimal performance from the leader's viewpoint and lead to an approximate symmetric (pure) Nash best response among the followers. Driving the follower population to infinity, we arrive at the interesting result that in this infinite-population regime the leader cannot design a smooth "finite-energy" incentive strategy, namely, a mean-field limit for such games is not well-defined. As a way around this, we introduce a class of stochastic Stackelberg games with a leader, a major follower, and a finite or infinite population of minor followers, where the leader provides an incentive only for the major follower, who in turn influences the rest of the followers through her strategy. For this class of problems, we are able to establish the existence of an incentive strategy with finitely many minor followers. We also show that if the leader's strategy with finitely many minor followers converges as their population size grows, then the limit defines an incentive strategy for the corresponding mean-field Stackelberg game. Examples of quadratic Gaussian games are provided to illustrate both positive and negative results. In addition, as a byproduct of our analysis, we establish existence of a randomized incentive strategy for the class mean-field Stackelberg games, which in turn provides an approximation for an incentive strategy of the corresponding finite population Stackelberg game.
Model Predictive Control (MPC) approaches are widely used in robotics, since they allow to compute updated trajectories while the robot is moving. They generally require heuristic references for the tracking terms and proper tuning of parameters of the cost function in order to obtain good performance. When for example, a legged robot has to react to disturbances from the environment (e.g., recover after a push) or track a certain goal with statically unstable gaits, the effectiveness of the algorithm can degrade. In this work we propose a novel optimization-based Reference Generator, named Governor, which exploits a Linear Inverted Pendulum model to compute reference trajectories for the Center of Mass, while taking into account the possible under-actuation of a gait (e.g. in a trot). The obtained trajectories are used as references for the cost function of the Nonlinear MPC presented in our previous work [1]. We also present a formulation that can guarantee a certain response time to reach a goal, without the need to tune the weights of the cost terms. In addition, foothold locations are corrected to drive the robot towards the goal. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach both in simulations and experiments in different scenarios with the Aliengo robot.
With the rapid growth of threats, sophistication and diversity in the manner of intrusion, traditional belt barrier systems are now faced with a major challenge of providing high and concrete coverage quality to expand the guarding service market. Recent efforts aim at constructing a belt barrier by deploying bistatic radar(s) on a specific line regardless of the limitation on deployment locations, to keep the width of the barrier from going below a specific threshold and the total bistatic radar placement cost is minimized, referred to as the Minimum Cost Linear Placement (MCLP) problem. The existing solutions are heuristic, and their validity is tightly bound by the barrier width parameter that these solutions only work for a fixed barrier width value. In this work, we propose an optimal solution, referred to as the Opt_MCLP, for the "open MCLP problem" that works for full range of the barrier width. Through rigorous theoretical analysis and experimentation, we demonstrate that the proposed algorithms perform well in terms of placement cost reduction and barrier coverage guarantee.
Behaviors of the synthetic characters in current military simulations are limited since they are generally generated by rule-based and reactive computational models with minimal intelligence. Such computational models cannot adapt to reflect the experience of the characters, resulting in brittle intelligence for even the most effective behavior models devised via costly and labor-intensive processes. Observation-based behavior model adaptation that leverages machine learning and the experience of synthetic entities in combination with appropriate prior knowledge can address the issues in the existing computational behavior models to create a better training experience in military training simulations. In this paper, we introduce a framework that aims to create autonomous synthetic characters that can perform coherent sequences of believable behavior while being aware of human trainees and their needs within a training simulation. This framework brings together three mutually complementary components. The first component is a Unity-based simulation environment - Rapid Integration and Development Environment (RIDE) - supporting One World Terrain (OWT) models and capable of running and supporting machine learning experiments. The second is Shiva, a novel multi-agent reinforcement and imitation learning framework that can interface with a variety of simulation environments, and that can additionally utilize a variety of learning algorithms. The final component is the Sigma Cognitive Architecture that will augment the behavior models with symbolic and probabilistic reasoning capabilities. We have successfully created proof-of-concept behavior models leveraging this framework on realistic terrain as an essential step towards bringing machine learning into military simulations.
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