Binary density ratio estimation (DRE), the problem of estimating the ratio $p_1/p_2$ given their empirical samples, provides the foundation for many state-of-the-art machine learning algorithms such as contrastive representation learning and covariate shift adaptation. In this work, we consider a generalized setting where given samples from multiple distributions $p_1, \ldots, p_k$ (for $k > 2$), we aim to efficiently estimate the density ratios between all pairs of distributions. Such a generalization leads to important new applications such as estimating statistical discrepancy among multiple random variables like multi-distribution $f$-divergence, and bias correction via multiple importance sampling. We then develop a general framework from the perspective of Bregman divergence minimization, where each strictly convex multivariate function induces a proper loss for multi-distribution DRE. Moreover, we rederive the theoretical connection between multi-distribution density ratio estimation and class probability estimation, justifying the use of any strictly proper scoring rule composite with a link function for multi-distribution DRE. We show that our framework leads to methods that strictly generalize their counterparts in binary DRE, as well as new methods that show comparable or superior performance on various downstream tasks.
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The vast majority of literature on evaluating the significance of a treatment effect based on observational data has been confined to discrete treatments. These methods are not applicable to drawing inference for a continuous treatment, which arises in many important applications. To adjust for confounders when evaluating a continuous treatment, existing inference methods often rely on discretizing the treatment or using (possibly misspecified) parametric models for the effect curve. Recently, Kennedy et al. (2017) proposed nonparametric doubly robust estimation for a continuous treatment effect in observational studies. However, inference for the continuous treatment effect is a significantly harder problem. To the best of our knowledge, a completely nonparametric doubly robust approach for inference in this setting is not yet available. We develop such a nonparametric doubly robust procedure in this paper for making inference on the continuous treatment effect curve. Using empirical process techniques for local U- and V-processes, we establish the test statistic's asymptotic distribution. Furthermore, we propose a wild bootstrap procedure for implementing the test in practice. We illustrate the new method via simulations and a study of a constructed dataset relating the effect of nurse staffing hours on hospital performance. We implement and share code for our doubly robust dose response test in the R package DRDRtest on CRAN.
In this paper, we introduce reduced-bias estimators for the estimation of the tail index of a Pareto-type distribution. This is achieved through the use of a regularised weighted least squares with an exponential regression model for log-spacings of top order statistics. The asymptotic properties of the proposed estimators are investigated analytically and found to be asymptotically unbiased, consistent and normally distributed. Also, the finite sample behaviour of the estimators are studied through a simulations theory. The proposed estimators were found to yield low bias and MSE. In addition, the proposed estimators are illustrated through the estimation of the tail index of the underlying distribution of claims from the insurance industry.
Successful applications of InfoNCE and its variants have popularized the use of contrastive variational mutual information (MI) estimators in machine learning. While featuring superior stability, these estimators crucially depend on costly large-batch training, and they sacrifice bound tightness for variance reduction. To overcome these limitations, we revisit the mathematics of popular variational MI bounds from the lens of unnormalized statistical modeling and convex optimization. Our investigation not only yields a new unified theoretical framework encompassing popular variational MI bounds but also leads to a novel, simple, and powerful contrastive MI estimator named as FLO. Theoretically, we show that the FLO estimator is tight, and it provably converges under stochastic gradient descent. Empirically, our FLO estimator overcomes the limitations of its predecessors and learns more efficiently. The utility of FLO is verified using an extensive set of benchmarks, which also reveals the trade-offs in practical MI estimation.
Any reasonable machine learning (ML) model should not only interpolate efficiently in between the training samples provided (in-distribution region), but also approach the extrapolative or out-of-distribution (OOD) region without being overconfident. Our experiment on human subjects justifies the aforementioned properties for human intelligence as well. Many state-of-the-art algorithms have tried to fix the overconfidence problem of ML models in the OOD region. However, in doing so, they have often impaired the in-distribution performance of the model. Our key insight is that ML models partition the feature space into polytopes and learn constant (random forests) or affine (ReLU networks) functions over those polytopes. This leads to the OOD overconfidence problem for the polytopes which lie in the training data boundary and extend to infinity. To resolve this issue, we propose kernel density methods that fit Gaussian kernel over the polytopes, which are learned using ML models. Specifically, we introduce two variants of kernel density polytopes: Kernel Density Forest (KDF) and Kernel Density Network (KDN) based on random forests and deep networks, respectively. Studies on various simulation settings show that both KDF and KDN achieve uniform confidence over the classes in the OOD region while maintaining good in-distribution accuracy compared to that of their respective parent models.
Distribution estimation under error-prone or non-ideal sampling modelled as "sticky" channels have been studied recently motivated by applications such as DNA computing. Missing mass, the sum of probabilities of missing letters, is an important quantity that plays a crucial role in distribution estimation, particularly in the large alphabet regime. In this work, we consider the problem of estimation of missing mass, which has been well-studied under independent and identically distributed (i.i.d) sampling, in the case when sampling is "sticky". Precisely, we consider the scenario where each sample from an unknown distribution gets repeated a geometrically-distributed number of times. We characterise the minimax rate of Mean Squared Error (MSE) of estimating missing mass from such sticky sampling channels. An upper bound on the minimax rate is obtained by bounding the risk of a modified Good-Turing estimator. We derive a matching lower bound on the minimax rate by extending the Le Cam method.
A new approach to $L_2$-consistent estimation of a general density functional using $k$-nearest neighbor distances is proposed, where the functional under consideration is in the form of the expectation of some function $f$ of the densities at each point. The estimator is designed to be asymptotically unbiased, using the convergence of the normalized volume of a $k$-nearest neighbor ball to a Gamma distribution in the large-sample limit, and naturally involves the inverse Laplace transform of a scaled version of the function $f.$ Some instantiations of the proposed estimator recover existing $k$-nearest neighbor based estimators of Shannon and R\'enyi entropies and Kullback--Leibler and R\'enyi divergences, and discover new consistent estimators for many other functionals such as logarithmic entropies and divergences. The $L_2$-consistency of the proposed estimator is established for a broad class of densities for general functionals, and the convergence rate in mean squared error is established as a function of the sample size for smooth, bounded densities.
Recent contrastive representation learning methods rely on estimating mutual information (MI) between multiple views of an underlying context. E.g., we can derive multiple views of a given image by applying data augmentation, or we can split a sequence into views comprising the past and future of some step in the sequence. Contrastive lower bounds on MI are easy to optimize, but have a strong underestimation bias when estimating large amounts of MI. We propose decomposing the full MI estimation problem into a sum of smaller estimation problems by splitting one of the views into progressively more informed subviews and by applying the chain rule on MI between the decomposed views. This expression contains a sum of unconditional and conditional MI terms, each measuring modest chunks of the total MI, which facilitates approximation via contrastive bounds. To maximize the sum, we formulate a contrastive lower bound on the conditional MI which can be approximated efficiently. We refer to our general approach as Decomposed Estimation of Mutual Information (DEMI). We show that DEMI can capture a larger amount of MI than standard non-decomposed contrastive bounds in a synthetic setting, and learns better representations in a vision domain and for dialogue generation.
Approaches based on deep neural networks have achieved striking performance when testing data and training data share similar distribution, but can significantly fail otherwise. Therefore, eliminating the impact of distribution shifts between training and testing data is crucial for building performance-promising deep models. Conventional methods assume either the known heterogeneity of training data (e.g. domain labels) or the approximately equal capacities of different domains. In this paper, we consider a more challenging case where neither of the above assumptions holds. We propose to address this problem by removing the dependencies between features via learning weights for training samples, which helps deep models get rid of spurious correlations and, in turn, concentrate more on the true connection between discriminative features and labels. Extensive experiments clearly demonstrate the effectiveness of our method on multiple distribution generalization benchmarks compared with state-of-the-art counterparts. Through extensive experiments on distribution generalization benchmarks including PACS, VLCS, MNIST-M, and NICO, we show the effectiveness of our method compared with state-of-the-art counterparts.
Implicit probabilistic models are models defined naturally in terms of a sampling procedure and often induces a likelihood function that cannot be expressed explicitly. We develop a simple method for estimating parameters in implicit models that does not require knowledge of the form of the likelihood function or any derived quantities, but can be shown to be equivalent to maximizing likelihood under some conditions. Our result holds in the non-asymptotic parametric setting, where both the capacity of the model and the number of data examples are finite. We also demonstrate encouraging experimental results.
Many problems on signal processing reduce to nonparametric function estimation. We propose a new methodology, piecewise convex fitting (PCF), and give a two-stage adaptive estimate. In the first stage, the number and location of the change points is estimated using strong smoothing. In the second stage, a constrained smoothing spline fit is performed with the smoothing level chosen to minimize the MSE. The imposed constraint is that a single change point occurs in a region about each empirical change point of the first-stage estimate. This constraint is equivalent to requiring that the third derivative of the second-stage estimate has a single sign in a small neighborhood about each first-stage change point. We sketch how PCF may be applied to signal recovery, instantaneous frequency estimation, surface reconstruction, image segmentation, spectral estimation and multivariate adaptive regression.
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