Much work in the parimutuel betting literature has discussed estimating event outcome probabilities or developing optimal wagering strategies, particularly for horse race betting. Some betting pools, however, involve betting not just on a single event, but on a tuple of events. For example, pick six betting in horse racing, March Madness bracket challenges, and predicting a randomly drawn bitstring each involve making a series of individual forecasts. Although traditional optimal wagering strategies work well when the size of the tuple is very small (e.g., betting on the winner of a horse race), they are intractable for more general betting pools in higher dimensions (e.g., March Madness bracket challenges). Hence we pose the multi-brackets problem: supposing we wish to predict a tuple of events and that we know the true probabilities of each potential outcome of each event, what is the best way to tractably generate a set of $n$ predicted tuples? The most general version of this problem is extremely difficult, so we begin with a simpler setting. In particular, we generate $n$ independent predicted tuples according to a distribution having optimal entropy. This entropy-based approach is tractable, scalable, and performs well.
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Benchmarking is crucial for evaluating a DBMS, yet existing benchmarks often fail to reflect the varied nature of user workloads. As a result, there is increasing momentum toward creating databases that incorporate real-world user data to more accurately mirror business environments. However, privacy concerns deter users from directly sharing their data, underscoring the importance of creating synthesized databases for benchmarking that also prioritize privacy protection. Differential privacy has become a key method for safeguarding privacy when sharing data, but the focus has largely been on minimizing errors in aggregate queries or classification tasks, with less attention given to benchmarking factors like runtime performance. This paper delves into the creation of privacy-preserving databases specifically for benchmarking, aiming to produce a differentially private database whose query performance closely resembles that of the original data. Introducing PrivBench, an innovative synthesis framework, we support the generation of high-quality data that maintains privacy. PrivBench uses sum-product networks (SPNs) to partition and sample data, enhancing data representation while securing privacy. The framework allows users to adjust the detail of SPN partitions and privacy settings, crucial for customizing privacy levels. We validate our approach, which uses the Laplace and exponential mechanisms, in maintaining privacy. Our tests show that PrivBench effectively generates data that maintains privacy and excels in query performance, consistently reducing errors in query execution time, query cardinality, and KL divergence.
The end-to-end neural combinatorial optimization (NCO) method shows promising performance in solving complex combinatorial optimization problems without the need for expert design. However, existing methods struggle with large-scale problems, hindering their practical applicability. To overcome this limitation, this work proposes a novel Self-Improved Learning (SIL) method for better scalability of neural combinatorial optimization. Specifically, we develop an efficient self-improved mechanism that enables direct model training on large-scale problem instances without any labeled data. Powered by an innovative local reconstruction approach, this method can iteratively generate better solutions by itself as pseudo-labels to guide efficient model training. In addition, we design a linear complexity attention mechanism for the model to efficiently handle large-scale combinatorial problem instances with low computation overhead. Comprehensive experiments on the Travelling Salesman Problem (TSP) and the Capacitated Vehicle Routing Problem (CVRP) with up to 100K nodes in both uniform and real-world distributions demonstrate the superior scalability of our method.
Because of their excellent asymptotic and finite-length performance, spatially-coupled (SC) codes are a class of low-density parity-check codes that is gaining increasing attention. Multi-dimensional (MD) SC codes are constructed by connecting copies of an SC code via relocations in order to mitigate various sources of non-uniformity and improve performance in many data storage and data transmission systems. As the number of degrees of freedom in the MD-SC code design increases, appropriately exploiting them becomes more difficult because of the complexity growth of the design process. In this paper, we propose a probabilistic framework for the MD-SC code design, which is based on the gradient-descent (GD) algorithm, to design better MD codes and address this challenge. In particular, we express the expected number of short cycles, which we seek to minimize, in the graph representation of the code in terms of entries of a probability-distribution matrix that characterizes the MD-SC code design. We then find a locally-optimal probability distribution, which serves as the starting point of a finite-length algorithmic optimizer that produces the final MD-SC code. We offer the theoretical analysis as well as the algorithms, and we present experimental results demonstrating that our MD codes, conveniently called GD-MD codes, have notably lower short cycle numbers compared with the available state-of-the-art. Moreover, our algorithms converge on solutions in few iterations, which confirms the complexity reduction as a result of limiting the search space via the locally-optimal GD-MD distributions.
Survival prediction is a complex ordinal regression task that aims to predict the survival coefficient ranking among a cohort of patients, typically achieved by analyzing patients' whole slide images. Existing deep learning approaches mainly adopt multiple instance learning or graph neural networks under weak supervision. Most of them are unable to uncover the diverse interactions between different types of biological entities(\textit{e.g.}, cell cluster and tissue block) across multiple scales, while such interactions are crucial for patient survival prediction. In light of this, we propose a novel multi-scale heterogeneity-aware hypergraph representation framework. Specifically, our framework first constructs a multi-scale heterogeneity-aware hypergraph and assigns each node with its biological entity type. It then mines diverse interactions between nodes on the graph structure to obtain a global representation. Experimental results demonstrate that our method outperforms state-of-the-art approaches on three benchmark datasets. Code is publicly available at \href{//github.com/Hanminghao/H2GT}{//github.com/Hanminghao/H2GT}.
The main function of depth completion is to compensate for an insufficient and unpredictable number of sparse depth measurements of hardware sensors. However, existing research on depth completion assumes that the sparsity -- the number of points or LiDAR lines -- is fixed for training and testing. Hence, the completion performance drops severely when the number of sparse depths changes significantly. To address this issue, we propose the sparsity-adaptive depth refinement (SDR) framework, which refines monocular depth estimates using sparse depth points. For SDR, we propose the masked spatial propagation network (MSPN) to perform SDR with a varying number of sparse depths effectively by gradually propagating sparse depth information throughout the entire depth map. Experimental results demonstrate that MPSN achieves state-of-the-art performance on both SDR and conventional depth completion scenarios.
We describe a class of tasks called decision-oriented dialogues, in which AI assistants must collaborate with one or more humans via natural language to help them make complex decisions. We formalize three domains in which users face everyday decisions: (1) choosing an assignment of reviewers to conference papers, (2) planning a multi-step itinerary in a city, and (3) negotiating travel plans for a group of friends. In each of these settings, AI assistants and users have disparate abilities that they must combine to arrive at the best decision: assistants can access and process large amounts of information, while users have preferences and constraints external to the system. For each task, we build a dialogue environment where agents receive a reward based on the quality of the final decision they reach. Using these environments, we collect human-human dialogues with humans playing the role of assistant. To compare how current AI assistants communicate in these settings, we present baselines using large language models in self-play. Finally, we highlight a number of challenges models face in decision-oriented dialogues, ranging from efficient communication to reasoning and optimization, and release our environments as a testbed for future modeling work.
The development of autonomous agents which can interact with other agents to accomplish a given task is a core area of research in artificial intelligence and machine learning. Towards this goal, the Autonomous Agents Research Group develops novel machine learning algorithms for autonomous systems control, with a specific focus on deep reinforcement learning and multi-agent reinforcement learning. Research problems include scalable learning of coordinated agent policies and inter-agent communication; reasoning about the behaviours, goals, and composition of other agents from limited observations; and sample-efficient learning based on intrinsic motivation, curriculum learning, causal inference, and representation learning. This article provides a broad overview of the ongoing research portfolio of the group and discusses open problems for future directions.
Generative commonsense reasoning which aims to empower machines to generate sentences with the capacity of reasoning over a set of concepts is a critical bottleneck for text generation. Even the state-of-the-art pre-trained language generation models struggle at this task and often produce implausible and anomalous sentences. One reason is that they rarely consider incorporating the knowledge graph which can provide rich relational information among the commonsense concepts. To promote the ability of commonsense reasoning for text generation, we propose a novel knowledge graph augmented pre-trained language generation model KG-BART, which encompasses the complex relations of concepts through the knowledge graph and produces more logical and natural sentences as output. Moreover, KG-BART can leverage the graph attention to aggregate the rich concept semantics that enhances the model generalization on unseen concept sets. Experiments on benchmark CommonGen dataset verify the effectiveness of our proposed approach by comparing with several strong pre-trained language generation models, particularly KG-BART outperforms BART by 5.80, 4.60, in terms of BLEU-3, 4. Moreover, we also show that the generated context by our model can work as background scenarios to benefit downstream commonsense QA tasks.
External knowledge is often useful for natural language understanding tasks. We introduce a contextual text representation model called Conceptual-Contextual (CC) embeddings, which incorporates structured knowledge into text representations. Unlike entity embedding methods, our approach encodes a knowledge graph into a context model. CC embeddings can be easily reused for a wide range of tasks just like pre-trained language models. Our model effectively encodes the huge UMLS database by leveraging semantic generalizability. Experiments on electronic health records (EHRs) and medical text processing benchmarks showed our model gives a major boost to the performance of supervised medical NLP tasks.
External knowledge is often useful for natural language understanding tasks. We introduce a contextual text representation model called Conceptual-Contextual (CC) embeddings, which incorporates structured knowledge into text representations. Unlike entity embedding methods, our approach encodes a knowledge graph into a context model. CC embeddings can be easily reused for a wide range of tasks just like pre-trained language models. Our model effectively encodes the huge UMLS database by leveraging semantic generalizability. Experiments on electronic health records (EHRs) and medical text processing benchmarks showed our model gives a major boost to the performance of supervised medical NLP tasks.
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