Variational autoencoders (VAEs) are a popular framework for modeling complex data distributions; they can be efficiently trained via variational inference by maximizing the evidence lower bound (ELBO), at the expense of a gap to the exact (log-)marginal likelihood. While VAEs are commonly used for representation learning, it is unclear why ELBO maximization would yield useful representations, since unregularized maximum likelihood estimation cannot invert the data-generating process. Yet, VAEs often succeed at this task. We seek to elucidate this apparent paradox by studying nonlinear VAEs in the limit of near-deterministic decoders. We first prove that, in this regime, the optimal encoder approximately inverts the decoder -- a commonly used but unproven conjecture -- which we refer to as {\em self-consistency}. Leveraging self-consistency, we show that the ELBO converges to a regularized log-likelihood. This allows VAEs to perform what has recently been termed independent mechanism analysis (IMA): it adds an inductive bias towards decoders with column-orthogonal Jacobians, which helps recovering the true latent factors. The gap between ELBO and log-likelihood is therefore welcome, since it bears unanticipated benefits for nonlinear representation learning. In experiments on synthetic and image data, we show that VAEs uncover the true latent factors when the data generating process satisfies the IMA assumption.
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Counterfactual reasoning from logged data has become increasingly important for many applications such as web advertising or healthcare. In this paper, we address the problem of learning stochastic policies with continuous actions from the viewpoint of counterfactual risk minimization (CRM). While the CRM framework is appealing and well studied for discrete actions, the continuous action case raises new challenges about modelization, optimization, and~offline model selection with real data which turns out to be particularly challenging. Our paper contributes to these three aspects of the CRM estimation pipeline. First, we introduce a modelling strategy based on a joint kernel embedding of contexts and actions, which overcomes the shortcomings of previous discretization approaches. Second, we empirically show that the optimization aspect of counterfactual learning is important, and we demonstrate the benefits of proximal point algorithms and differentiable estimators. Finally, we propose an evaluation protocol for offline policies in real-world logged systems, which is challenging since policies cannot be replayed on test data, and we release a new large-scale dataset along with multiple synthetic, yet realistic, evaluation setups.
We study the problem of sharing as many branching conditions of a given forest classifier or regressor as possible while keeping classification performance. As a constraint for preventing from accuracy degradation, we first consider the one that the decision paths of all the given feature vectors must not change. For a branching condition that a value of a certain feature is at most a given threshold, the set of values satisfying such constraint can be represented as an interval. Thus, the problem is reduced to the problem of finding the minimum set intersecting all the constraint-satisfying intervals for each set of branching conditions on the same feature. We propose an algorithm for the original problem using an algorithm solving this problem efficiently. The constraint is relaxed later to promote further sharing of branching conditions by allowing decision path change of a certain ratio of the given feature vectors or allowing a certain number of non-intersected constraint-satisfying intervals. We also extended our algorithm for both the relaxations. The effectiveness of our method is demonstrated through comprehensive experiments using 21 datasets (13 classification and 8 regression datasets in UCI machine learning repository) and 4 classifiers/regressors (random forest, extremely randomized trees, AdaBoost and gradient boosting).
The Gaussian graphical model is routinely employed to model the joint distribution of multiple random variables. The graph it induces is not only useful for describing the relationship between random variables but also critical for improving statistical estimation precision. In high-dimensional data analysis, despite an abundant literature on estimating this graph structure, tests for the adequacy of its specification at a global level is severely underdeveloped. To make progress, this paper proposes a novel goodness-of-fit test that is computationally easy and theoretically tractable. Under the null hypothesis, it is shown that asymptotic distribution of the proposed test statistic follows a Gumbel distribution. Interestingly the location parameter of this limiting Gumbel distribution depends on the dependence structure under the null. We further develop a novel consistency-empowered test statistic when the true structure is nested in the postulated structure, by amplifying the noise incurred in estimation. Extensive simulation illustrates that the proposed test procedure has the right size under the null, and is powerful under the alternative. As an application, we apply the test to the analysis of a COVID-19 data set, demonstrating that our test can serve as a valuable tool in choosing a graph structure to improve estimation efficiency.
Quantile regression is increasingly encountered in modern big data applications due to its robustness and flexibility. We consider the scenario of learning the conditional quantiles of a specific target population when the available data may go beyond the target and be supplemented from other sources that possibly share similarities with the target. A crucial question is how to properly distinguish and utilize useful information from other sources to improve the quantile estimation and inference at the target. We develop transfer learning methods for high-dimensional quantile regression by detecting informative sources whose models are similar to the target and utilizing them to improve the target model. We show that under reasonable conditions, the detection of the informative sources based on sample splitting is consistent. Compared to the naive estimator with only the target data, the transfer learning estimator achieves a much lower error rate as a function of the sample sizes, the signal-to-noise ratios, and the similarity measures among the target and the source models. Extensive simulation studies demonstrate the superiority of our proposed approach. We apply our methods to tackle the problem of detecting hard-landing risk for flight safety and show the benefits and insights gained from transfer learning of three different types of airplanes: Boeing 737, Airbus A320, and Airbus A380.
This paper proposes a theoretical framework on the mechanism of autoencoders. To the encoder part, under the main use of dimensionality reduction, we investigate its two fundamental properties: bijective maps and data disentangling. The general construction methods of an encoder that satisfies either or both of the above two properties are given. The generalization mechanism of autoencoders is modeled. Based on the theoretical framework above, we explain some experimental results of variational autoencoders, denoising autoencoders, and linear-unit autoencoders, with emphasis on the interpretation of the lower-dimensional representation of data via encoders; and the mechanism of image restoration through autoencoders is natural to be understood by those explanations. Compared to PCA and decision trees, the advantages of (generalized) autoencoders on dimensionality reduction and classification are demonstrated, respectively. Convolutional neural networks and randomly weighted neural networks are also interpreted by this framework.
Model-based safety assessment has been one of the leading research thrusts of the System Safety Engineering community for over two decades. However, there is still a lack of consensus on what MBSA is. The ambiguity in the identity of MBSA impedes the advancement of MBSA as an active research area. For this reason, this paper aims to investigate the identity of MBSA to help achieve a consensus across the community. Towards this end, we first reason about the core activities that an MBSA approach must conduct. Second, we characterize the core patterns in which the core activities must be conducted for an approach to be considered MBSA. Finally, a recently published MBSA paper is reviewed to test the effectiveness of our characterization of MBSA.
Fingerprints are key tools in climate change detection and attribution (D&A) that are used to determine whether changes in observations are different from internal climate variability (detection), and whether observed changes can be assigned to specific external drivers (attribution). We propose a direct D&A approach based on supervised learning to extract fingerprints that lead to robust predictions under relevant interventions on exogenous variables, i.e., climate drivers other than the target. We employ anchor regression, a distributionally-robust statistical learning method inspired by causal inference that extrapolates well to perturbed data under the interventions considered. The residuals from the prediction achieve either uncorrelatedness or mean independence with the exogenous variables, thus guaranteeing robustness. We define D&A as a unified hypothesis testing framework that relies on the same statistical model but uses different targets and test statistics. In the experiments, we first show that the CO2 forcing can be robustly predicted from temperature spatial patterns under strong interventions on the solar forcing. Second, we illustrate attribution to the greenhouse gases and aerosols while protecting against interventions on the aerosols and CO2 forcing, respectively. Our study shows that incorporating robustness constraints against relevant interventions may significantly benefit detection and attribution of climate change.
This paper makes 3 contributions. First, it generalizes the Lindeberg\textendash Feller and Lyapunov Central Limit Theorems to Hilbert Spaces by way of $L^2$. Second, it generalizes these results to spaces in which sample failure and missingness can occur. Finally, it shows that satisfaction of the Lindeberg\textendash Feller Condition in such spaces guarantees the consistency of all inferences from the partial functional data with respect to the completely observed data. These latter two results are especially important given the increasing attention to statistical inference with partially observed functional data. This paper goes beyond previous research by providing simple boundedness conditions which guarantee that \textit{all} inferences, as opposed to some proper subset of them, will be consistently estimated. This is shown primarily by aggregating conditional expectations with respect to the space of missingness patterns. This paper appears to be the first to apply this technique.
We present a novel counterfactual framework for both Zero-Shot Learning (ZSL) and Open-Set Recognition (OSR), whose common challenge is generalizing to the unseen-classes by only training on the seen-classes. Our idea stems from the observation that the generated samples for unseen-classes are often out of the true distribution, which causes severe recognition rate imbalance between the seen-class (high) and unseen-class (low). We show that the key reason is that the generation is not Counterfactual Faithful, and thus we propose a faithful one, whose generation is from the sample-specific counterfactual question: What would the sample look like, if we set its class attribute to a certain class, while keeping its sample attribute unchanged? Thanks to the faithfulness, we can apply the Consistency Rule to perform unseen/seen binary classification, by asking: Would its counterfactual still look like itself? If ``yes'', the sample is from a certain class, and ``no'' otherwise. Through extensive experiments on ZSL and OSR, we demonstrate that our framework effectively mitigates the seen/unseen imbalance and hence significantly improves the overall performance. Note that this framework is orthogonal to existing methods, thus, it can serve as a new baseline to evaluate how ZSL/OSR models generalize. Codes are available at //github.com/yue-zhongqi/gcm-cf.
While it is nearly effortless for humans to quickly assess the perceptual similarity between two images, the underlying processes are thought to be quite complex. Despite this, the most widely used perceptual metrics today, such as PSNR and SSIM, are simple, shallow functions, and fail to account for many nuances of human perception. Recently, the deep learning community has found that features of the VGG network trained on the ImageNet classification task has been remarkably useful as a training loss for image synthesis. But how perceptual are these so-called "perceptual losses"? What elements are critical for their success? To answer these questions, we introduce a new Full Reference Image Quality Assessment (FR-IQA) dataset of perceptual human judgments, orders of magnitude larger than previous datasets. We systematically evaluate deep features across different architectures and tasks and compare them with classic metrics. We find that deep features outperform all previous metrics by huge margins. More surprisingly, this result is not restricted to ImageNet-trained VGG features, but holds across different deep architectures and levels of supervision (supervised, self-supervised, or even unsupervised). Our results suggest that perceptual similarity is an emergent property shared across deep visual representations.
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