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We consider a generic and explicit tamed Euler--Maruyama scheme for multidimensional time-inhomogeneous stochastic differential equations with multiplicative Brownian noise. The diffusion coefficient is uniformly elliptic, H\"older continuous and weakly differentiable in the spatial variables while the drift satisfies the Ladyzhenskaya--Prodi--Serrin condition, as considered by Krylov and R\"ockner (2005). In the discrete scheme, the drift is tamed by replacing it by an approximation. A strong rate of convergence of the scheme is provided in terms of the approximation error of the drift in a suitable and possibly very weak topology. A few examples of approximating drifts are discussed in detail. The parameters of the approximating drifts can vary and be fine-tuned to achieve the standard $1/2$-strong convergence rate with a logarithmic factor.

We present generalized additive latent and mixed models (GALAMMs) for analysis of clustered data with latent and observed variables depending smoothly on observed variables. A profile likelihood algorithm is proposed, and we derive asymptotic standard errors of both smooth and parametric terms. The work was motivated by applications in cognitive neuroscience, and we show how GALAMMs can successfully model the complex lifespan trajectory of latent episodic memory, along with a discrepant trajectory of working memory, as well as the effect of latent socioeconomic status on hippocampal development. Simulation experiments suggest that model estimates are accurate even with moderate sample sizes.

We describe a class of algorithms for evaluating posterior moments of certain Bayesian linear regression models with a normal likelihood and a normal prior on the regression coefficients. The proposed methods can be used for hierarchical mixed effects models with partial pooling over one group of predictors, as well as random effects models with partial pooling over two groups of predictors. We demonstrate the performance of the methods on two applications, one involving U.S. opinion polls and one involving the modeling of COVID-19 outbreaks in Israel using survey data. The algorithms involve analytical marginalization of regression coefficients followed by numerical integration of the remaining low-dimensional density. The dominant cost of the algorithms is an eigendecomposition computed once for each value of the outside parameter of integration. Our approach drastically reduces run times compared to state-of-the-art Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms. The latter, in addition to being computationally expensive, can also be difficult to tune when applied to hierarchical models.

An explicit numerical method is developed for a class of time-changed stochastic differential equations, whose the coefficients obey H\"older's continuity in terms of the time variable and are allowed to grow super-linearly in terms of the state variable. The strong convergence of the method in a finite time interval is proved and the convergence rate is obtained. Numerical simulations are provided, which are in line with those theoretical results.

The efficient estimation of an approximate model order is very important for real applications with multi-dimensional data if the observed low-rank data is corrupted by additive noise. In this paper, we present a novel robust method for model order estimation of noise-corrupted multi-dimensional low-rank data based on the LineAr Regression of Global Eigenvalues (LaRGE). The LaRGE method uses the multi-linear singular values obtained from the HOSVD of the measurement tensor to construct global eigenvalues. In contrast to the Modified Exponential Test (EFT) that also exploits the approximate exponential profile of the noise eigenvalues, LaRGE does not require the calculation of the probability of false alarm. Moreover, LaRGE achieves a significantly improved performance in comparison with popular state-of-the-art methods. It is well suited for the analysis of biomedical data. The excellent performance of the LaRGE method is illustrated via simulations and results obtained from EEG recordings.

In this chapter, we show how to efficiently model high-dimensional extreme peaks-over-threshold events over space in complex non-stationary settings, using extended latent Gaussian Models (LGMs), and how to exploit the fitted model in practice for the computation of long-term return levels. The extended LGM framework assumes that the data follow a specific parametric distribution, whose unknown parameters are transformed using a multivariate link function and are then further modeled at the latent level in terms of fixed and random effects that have a joint Gaussian distribution. In the extremal context, we here assume that the data level distribution is described in terms of a Poisson point process likelihood, motivated by asymptotic extreme-value theory, and which conveniently exploits information from all threshold exceedances. This contrasts with the more common data-wasteful approach based on block maxima, which are typically modeled with the generalized extreme-value (GEV) distribution. When conditional independence can be assumed at the data level and latent random effects have a sparse probabilistic structure, fast approximate Bayesian inference becomes possible in very high dimensions, and we here present the recently proposed inference approach called "Max-and-Smooth", which provides exceptional speed-up compared to alternative methods. The proposed methodology is illustrated by application to satellite-derived precipitation data over Saudi Arabia, obtained from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission, with 2738 grid cells and about 20 million spatio-temporal observations in total. Our fitted model captures the spatial variability of extreme precipitation satisfactorily and our results show that the most intense precipitation events are expected near the south-western part of Saudi Arabia, along the Red Sea coastline.

We introduce Autoregressive Diffusion Models (ARDMs), a model class encompassing and generalizing order-agnostic autoregressive models (Uria et al., 2014) and absorbing discrete diffusion (Austin et al., 2021), which we show are special cases of ARDMs under mild assumptions. ARDMs are simple to implement and easy to train. Unlike standard ARMs, they do not require causal masking of model representations, and can be trained using an efficient objective similar to modern probabilistic diffusion models that scales favourably to highly-dimensional data. At test time, ARDMs support parallel generation which can be adapted to fit any given generation budget. We find that ARDMs require significantly fewer steps than discrete diffusion models to attain the same performance. Finally, we apply ARDMs to lossless compression, and show that they are uniquely suited to this task. Contrary to existing approaches based on bits-back coding, ARDMs obtain compelling results not only on complete datasets, but also on compressing single data points. Moreover, this can be done using a modest number of network calls for (de)compression due to the model's adaptable parallel generation.

Multivariate functional data can be intrinsically multivariate like movement trajectories in 2D or complementary like precipitation, temperature, and wind speeds over time at a given weather station. We propose a multivariate functional additive mixed model (multiFAMM) and show its application to both data situations using examples from sports science (movement trajectories of snooker players) and phonetic science (acoustic signals and articulation of consonants). The approach includes linear and nonlinear covariate effects and models the dependency structure between the dimensions of the responses using multivariate functional principal component analysis. Multivariate functional random intercepts capture both the auto-correlation within a given function and cross-correlations between the multivariate functional dimensions. They also allow us to model between-function correlations as induced by e.g.\ repeated measurements or crossed study designs. Modeling the dependency structure between the dimensions can generate additional insight into the properties of the multivariate functional process, improves the estimation of random effects, and yields corrected confidence bands for covariate effects. Extensive simulation studies indicate that a multivariate modeling approach is more parsimonious than fitting independent univariate models to the data while maintaining or improving model fit.

We introduce a new family of deep neural network models. Instead of specifying a discrete sequence of hidden layers, we parameterize the derivative of the hidden state using a neural network. The output of the network is computed using a black-box differential equation solver. These continuous-depth models have constant memory cost, adapt their evaluation strategy to each input, and can explicitly trade numerical precision for speed. We demonstrate these properties in continuous-depth residual networks and continuous-time latent variable models. We also construct continuous normalizing flows, a generative model that can train by maximum likelihood, without partitioning or ordering the data dimensions. For training, we show how to scalably backpropagate through any ODE solver, without access to its internal operations. This allows end-to-end training of ODEs within larger models.

The Variational Auto-Encoder (VAE) is one of the most used unsupervised machine learning models. But although the default choice of a Gaussian distribution for both the prior and posterior represents a mathematically convenient distribution often leading to competitive results, we show that this parameterization fails to model data with a latent hyperspherical structure. To address this issue we propose using a von Mises-Fisher (vMF) distribution instead, leading to a hyperspherical latent space. Through a series of experiments we show how such a hyperspherical VAE, or $\mathcal{S}$-VAE, is more suitable for capturing data with a hyperspherical latent structure, while outperforming a normal, $\mathcal{N}$-VAE, in low dimensions on other data types.