Inspired by the demands of real-time climate and weather forecasting, we develop optimistic online learning algorithms that require no parameter tuning and have optimal regret guarantees under delayed feedback. Our algorithms -- DORM, DORM+, and AdaHedgeD -- arise from a novel reduction of delayed online learning to optimistic online learning that reveals how optimistic hints can mitigate the regret penalty caused by delay. We pair this delay-as-optimism perspective with a new analysis of optimistic learning that exposes its robustness to hinting errors and a new meta-algorithm for learning effective hinting strategies in the presence of delay. We conclude by benchmarking our algorithms on four subseasonal climate forecasting tasks, demonstrating low regret relative to state-of-the-art forecasting models.
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Distributed learning provides an attractive framework for scaling the learning task by sharing the computational load over multiple nodes in a network. Here, we investigate the performance of distributed learning for large-scale linear regression where the model parameters, i.e., the unknowns, are distributed over the network. We adopt a statistical learning approach. In contrast to works that focus on the performance on the training data, we focus on the generalization error, i.e., the performance on unseen data. We provide high-probability bounds on the generalization error for both isotropic and correlated Gaussian data as well as sub-gaussian data. These results reveal the dependence of the generalization performance on the partitioning of the model over the network. In particular, our results show that the generalization error of the distributed solution can be substantially higher than that of the centralized solution even when the error on the training data is at the same level for both the centralized and distributed approaches. Our numerical results illustrate the performance with both real-world image data as well as synthetic data.
Regression is one of the most commonly used statistical techniques. However, testing regression systems is a great challenge because of the absence of test oracle in general. In this paper, we show that Metamorphic Testing is an effective approach to test multiple linear regression systems. In doing so, we identify intrinsic mathematical properties of linear regression, and then propose 11 Metamorphic Relations to be used for testing. Their effectiveness is examined using mutation analysis with a range of different regression programs. We further look at how the testing could be adopted in a more effective way. Our work is applicable to examine the reliability of predictive systems based on regression that has been widely used in economics, engineering and science, as well as of the regression calculation manipulated by statistical users.
Setting sale prices correctly is of great importance for firms, and the study and forecast of prices time series is therefore a relevant topic not only from a data science perspective but also from an economic and applicative one. In this paper we examine different techniques to forecast sale prices applied by an Italian food wholesaler, as a step towards the automation of pricing tasks usually taken care by human workforce. We consider ARIMA models and compare them to Prophet, a scalable forecasting tool by Facebook based on a generalized additive model, and to deep learning models exploiting Long Short--Term Memory (LSTM) and Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs). ARIMA models are frequently used in econometric analyses, providing a good benchmark for the problem under study. Our results indicate that ARIMA models and LSTM neural networks perform similarly for the forecasting task under consideration, while the combination of CNNs and LSTMs attains the best overall accuracy, but requires more time to be tuned. On the contrary, Prophet is quick and easy to use, but considerably less accurate.t overall accuracy, but requires more time to be tuned. On the contrary, Prophet is quick and easy to use, but considerably less accurate.
We investigate the problem of online learning, which has gained significant attention in recent years due to its applicability in a wide range of fields from machine learning to game theory. Specifically, we study the online optimization of mixable loss functions in a dynamic environment. We introduce online mixture schemes that asymptotically achieves the performance of the best dynamic estimation sequence of the switching oracle with optimal regret redundancies. The best dynamic estimation sequence that we compete against is selected in hindsight with full observation of the loss functions and is allowed to select different optimal estimations in different time intervals (segments). We propose two mixtures in our work. Firstly, we propose a tractable polynomial time complexity algorithm that can achieve the optimal redundancy of the intractable brute force approach. Secondly, we propose an efficient logarithmic time complexity algorithm that can achieve the optimal redundancy up to a constant multiplicity gap. Our results are guaranteed to hold in a strong deterministic sense in an individual sequence manner.
This paper addresses the difficulty of forecasting multiple financial time series (TS) conjointly using deep neural networks (DNN). We investigate whether DNN-based models could forecast these TS more efficiently by learning their representation directly. To this end, we make use of the dynamic factor graph (DFG) from that we enhance by proposing a novel variable-length attention-based mechanism to render it memory-augmented. Using this mechanism, we propose an unsupervised DNN architecture for multivariate TS forecasting that allows to learn and take advantage of the relationships between these TS. We test our model on two datasets covering 19 years of investment funds activities. Our experimental results show that our proposed approach outperforms significantly typical DNN-based and statistical models at forecasting their 21-day price trajectory.
Methods proposed in the literature towards continual deep learning typically operate in a task-based sequential learning setup. A sequence of tasks is learned, one at a time, with all data of current task available but not of previous or future tasks. Task boundaries and identities are known at all times. This setup, however, is rarely encountered in practical applications. Therefore we investigate how to transform continual learning to an online setup. We develop a system that keeps on learning over time in a streaming fashion, with data distributions gradually changing and without the notion of separate tasks. To this end, we build on the work on Memory Aware Synapses, and show how this method can be made online by providing a protocol to decide i) when to update the importance weights, ii) which data to use to update them, and iii) how to accumulate the importance weights at each update step. Experimental results show the validity of the approach in the context of two applications: (self-)supervised learning of a face recognition model by watching soap series and learning a robot to avoid collisions.
There has been a recent explosion in the capabilities of game-playing artificial intelligence. Many classes of tasks, from video games to motor control to board games, are now solvable by fairly generic algorithms, based on deep learning and reinforcement learning, that learn to play from experience with minimal prior knowledge. However, these machines often do not win through intelligence alone -- they possess vastly superior speed and precision, allowing them to act in ways a human never could. To level the playing field, we restrict the machine's reaction time to a human level, and find that standard deep reinforcement learning methods quickly drop in performance. We propose a solution to the action delay problem inspired by human perception -- to endow agents with a neural predictive model of the environment which "undoes" the delay inherent in their environment -- and demonstrate its efficacy against professional players in Super Smash Bros. Melee, a popular console fighting game.
The reinforcement learning community has made great strides in designing algorithms capable of exceeding human performance on specific tasks. These algorithms are mostly trained one task at the time, each new task requiring to train a brand new agent instance. This means the learning algorithm is general, but each solution is not; each agent can only solve the one task it was trained on. In this work, we study the problem of learning to master not one but multiple sequential-decision tasks at once. A general issue in multi-task learning is that a balance must be found between the needs of multiple tasks competing for the limited resources of a single learning system. Many learning algorithms can get distracted by certain tasks in the set of tasks to solve. Such tasks appear more salient to the learning process, for instance because of the density or magnitude of the in-task rewards. This causes the algorithm to focus on those salient tasks at the expense of generality. We propose to automatically adapt the contribution of each task to the agent's updates, so that all tasks have a similar impact on the learning dynamics. This resulted in state of the art performance on learning to play all games in a set of 57 diverse Atari games. Excitingly, our method learned a single trained policy - with a single set of weights - that exceeds median human performance. To our knowledge, this was the first time a single agent surpassed human-level performance on this multi-task domain. The same approach also demonstrated state of the art performance on a set of 30 tasks in the 3D reinforcement learning platform DeepMind Lab.
Recommender systems can mitigate the information overload problem by suggesting users' personalized items. In real-world recommendations such as e-commerce, a typical interaction between the system and its users is -- users are recommended a page of items and provide feedback; and then the system recommends a new page of items. To effectively capture such interaction for recommendations, we need to solve two key problems -- (1) how to update recommending strategy according to user's \textit{real-time feedback}, and 2) how to generate a page of items with proper display, which pose tremendous challenges to traditional recommender systems. In this paper, we study the problem of page-wise recommendations aiming to address aforementioned two challenges simultaneously. In particular, we propose a principled approach to jointly generate a set of complementary items and the corresponding strategy to display them in a 2-D page; and propose a novel page-wise recommendation framework based on deep reinforcement learning, DeepPage, which can optimize a page of items with proper display based on real-time feedback from users. The experimental results based on a real-world e-commerce dataset demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed framework.
Clustering and classification critically rely on distance metrics that provide meaningful comparisons between data points. We present mixed-integer optimization approaches to find optimal distance metrics that generalize the Mahalanobis metric extensively studied in the literature. Additionally, we generalize and improve upon leading methods by removing reliance on pre-designated "target neighbors," "triplets," and "similarity pairs." Another salient feature of our method is its ability to enable active learning by recommending precise regions to sample after an optimal metric is computed to improve classification performance. This targeted acquisition can significantly reduce computational burden by ensuring training data completeness, representativeness, and economy. We demonstrate classification and computational performance of the algorithms through several simple and intuitive examples, followed by results on real image and medical datasets.
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