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Due to the nature of pure-tone audiometry test, hearing loss data often has a complicated correlation structure. Generalized estimating equation (GEE) is commonly used to investigate the association between exposures and hearing loss, because it is robust to misspecification of the correlation matrix. However, this robustness typically entails a moderate loss of estimation efficiency in finite samples. This paper proposes to model the correlation coefficients and use second-order generalized estimating equations to estimate the correlation parameters. In simulation studies, we assessed the finite sample performance of our proposed method and compared it with other methods, such as GEE with independent, exchangeable and unstructured correlation structures. Our method achieves an efficiency gain which is larger for the coefficients of the covariates corresponding to the within-cluster variation (e.g., ear-level covariates) than the coefficients of cluster-level covariates. The efficiency gain is also more pronounced when the within-cluster correlations are moderate to strong, or when comparing to GEE with an unstructured correlation structure. As a real-world example, we applied the proposed method to data from the Audiology Assessment Arm of the Conservation of Hearing Study, and studied the association between a dietary adherence score and hearing loss.

We consider a a collection of categorical random variables. Of special interest is the causal effect on an outcome variable following an intervention on another variable. Conditionally on a Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG), we assume that the joint law of the random variables can be factorized according to the DAG, where each term is a categorical distribution for the node-variable given a configuration of its parents. The graph is equipped with a causal interpretation through the notion of interventional distribution and the allied "do-calculus". From a modeling perspective, the likelihood is decomposed into a product over nodes and parents of DAG-parameters, on which a suitably specified collection of Dirichlet priors is assigned. The overall joint distribution on the ensemble of DAG-parameters is then constructed using global and local independence. We account for DAG-model uncertainty and propose a reversible jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm which targets the joint posterior over DAGs and DAG-parameters; from the output we are able to recover a full posterior distribution of any causal effect coefficient of interest, possibly summarized by a Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) point estimate. We validate our method through extensive simulation studies, wherein comparisons with alternative state-of-the-art procedures reveal an outperformance in terms of estimation accuracy. Finally, we analyze a dataset relative to a study on depression and anxiety in undergraduate students.

Partial orders are a natural model for the social hierarchies that may constrain "queue-like" rank-order data. However, the computational cost of counting the linear extensions of a general partial order on a ground set with more than a few tens of elements is prohibitive. Vertex-series-parallel partial orders (VSPs) are a subclass of partial orders which admit rapid counting and represent the sorts of relations we expect to see in a social hierarchy. However, no Bayesian analysis of VSPs has been given to date. We construct a marginally consistent family of priors over VSPs with a parameter controlling the prior distribution over VSP depth. The prior for VSPs is given in closed form. We extend an existing observation model for queue-like rank-order data to represent noise in our data and carry out Bayesian inference on "Royal Acta" data and Formula 1 race data. Model comparison shows our model is a better fit to the data than Plackett-Luce mixtures, Mallows mixtures, and "bucket order" models and competitive with more complex models fitting general partial orders.

We revisit the problem of spurious modes that are sometimes encountered in partial differential equations discretizations. It is generally suspected that one of the causes for spurious modes is due to how boundary conditions are treated, and we use this as the starting point of our investigations. By regarding boundary conditions as algebraic constraints on a differential equation, we point out that any differential equation with homogeneous boundary conditions also admits a typically infinite number of hidden or implicit boundary conditions. In most discretization schemes, these additional implicit boundary conditions are violated, and we argue that this is what leads to the emergence of spurious modes. These observations motivate two definitions of the quality of computed eigenvalues based on violations of derivatives of boundary conditions on the one hand, and on the Grassmann distance between subspaces associated with computed eigenspaces on the other. Both of these tests are based on a standardized treatment of boundary conditions and do not require a priori knowledge of eigenvalue locations. The effectiveness of these tests is demonstrated on several examples known to have spurious modes. In addition, these quality tests show that in most problems, about half the computed spectrum of a differential operator is of low quality. The tests also specifically identify the low accuracy modes, which can then be projected out as a type of model reduction scheme.

In the study of sparse stochastic block models (SBMs) one often needs to analyze a distributional recursion, known as the belief propagation (BP) recursion. Uniqueness of the fixed point of this recursion implies several results about the SBM, including optimal recovery algorithms for SBM (Mossel et al. (2016)) and SBM with side information (Mossel and Xu (2016)), and a formula for SBM mutual information (Abbe et al. (2021)). The 2-community case corresponds to an Ising model, for which Yu and Polyanskiy (2022) established uniqueness for all cases. In this paper we analyze the $q$-ary Potts model, i.e., broadcasting of $q$-ary spins on a Galton-Watson tree with expected offspring degree $d$ through Potts channels with second-largest eigenvalue $\lambda$. We allow the intermediate vertices to be observed through noisy channels (side information). We prove that BP uniqueness holds with and without side information when $d\lambda^2 \ge 1 + C \max\{\lambda, q^{-1}\}\log q$ for some absolute constant $C>0$ independent of $q,\lambda,d$. For large $q$ and $\lambda = o(1/\log q)$, this is asymptotically achieving the Kesten-Stigum threshold $d\lambda^2=1$. These results imply mutual information formulas and optimal recovery algorithms for the $q$-community SBM in the corresponding ranges. For $q\ge 4$, Sly (2011); Mossel et al. (2022) showed that there exist choices of $q,\lambda,d$ below Kesten-Stigum (i.e. $d\lambda^2 < 1$) but reconstruction is possible. Somewhat surprisingly, we show that in such regimes BP uniqueness does not hold at least in the presence of weak side information. Our technical tool is a theory of $q$-ary symmetric channels, that we initiate here, generalizing the classical and widely-utilized information-theoretic characterization of BMS (binary memoryless symmetric) channels.

We introduce a sparse estimation in the ordinary kriging for functional data. The functional kriging predicts a feature given as a function at a location where the data are not observed by a linear combination of data observed at other locations. To estimate the weights of the linear combination, we apply the lasso-type regularization in minimizing the expected squared error. We derive an algorithm to derive the estimator using the augmented Lagrange method. Tuning parameters included in the estimation procedure are selected by cross-validation. Since the proposed method can shrink some of the weights of the linear combination toward zeros exactly, we can investigate which locations are necessary or unnecessary to predict the feature. Simulation and real data analysis show that the proposed method appropriately provides reasonable results.

Gaussian Process Networks (GPNs) are a class of directed graphical models which employ Gaussian processes as priors for the conditional expectation of each variable given its parents in the network. The model allows describing continuous joint distributions in a compact but flexible manner with minimal parametric assumptions on the dependencies between variables. Bayesian structure learning of GPNs requires computing the posterior over graphs of the network and is computationally infeasible even in low dimensions. This work implements Monte Carlo and Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods to sample from the posterior distribution of network structures. As such, the approach follows the Bayesian paradigm, comparing models via their marginal likelihood and computing the posterior probability of the GPN features. Simulation studies show that our method outperforms state-of-the-art algorithms in recovering the graphical structure of the network and provides an accurate approximation of its posterior distribution.

The primary objective of this scholarly work is to develop two estimation procedures - maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) and method of trimmed moments (MTM) - for the mean and variance of lognormal insurance payment severity data sets affected by different loss control mechanism, for example, truncation (due to deductibles), censoring (due to policy limits), and scaling (due to coinsurance proportions), in insurance and financial industries. Maximum likelihood estimating equations for both payment-per-payment and payment-per-loss data sets are derived which can be solved readily by any existing iterative numerical methods. The asymptotic distributions of those estimators are established via Fisher information matrices. Further, with a goal of balancing efficiency and robustness and to remove point masses at certain data points, we develop a dynamic MTM estimation procedures for lognormal claim severity models for the above-mentioned transformed data scenarios. The asymptotic distributional properties and the comparison with the corresponding MLEs of those MTM estimators are established along with extensive simulation studies. Purely for illustrative purpose, numerical examples for 1500 US indemnity losses are provided which illustrate the practical performance of the established results in this paper.

Separating signals from an additive mixture may be an unnecessarily hard problem when one is only interested in specific properties of a given signal. In this work, we tackle simpler "statistical component separation" problems that focus on recovering a predefined set of statistical descriptors of a target signal from a noisy mixture. Assuming access to samples of the noise process, we investigate a method devised to match the statistics of the solution candidate corrupted by noise samples with those of the observed mixture. We first analyze the behavior of this method using simple examples with analytically tractable calculations. Then, we apply it in an image denoising context employing 1) wavelet-based descriptors, 2) ConvNet-based descriptors on astrophysics and ImageNet data. In the case of 1), we show that our method better recovers the descriptors of the target data than a standard denoising method in most situations. Additionally, despite not constructed for this purpose, it performs surprisingly well in terms of peak signal-to-noise ratio on full signal reconstruction. In comparison, representation 2) appears less suitable for image denoising. Finally, we extend this method by introducing a diffusive stepwise algorithm which gives a new perspective to the initial method and leads to promising results for image denoising under specific circumstances.

The concept of causality plays an important role in human cognition . In the past few decades, causal inference has been well developed in many fields, such as computer science, medicine, economics, and education. With the advancement of deep learning techniques, it has been increasingly used in causal inference against counterfactual data. Typically, deep causal models map the characteristics of covariates to a representation space and then design various objective optimization functions to estimate counterfactual data unbiasedly based on the different optimization methods. This paper focuses on the survey of the deep causal models, and its core contributions are as follows: 1) we provide relevant metrics under multiple treatments and continuous-dose treatment; 2) we incorporate a comprehensive overview of deep causal models from both temporal development and method classification perspectives; 3) we assist a detailed and comprehensive classification and analysis of relevant datasets and source code.