Bayesian optimization (BO) primarily uses Gaussian processes (GP) as the key surrogate model, mostly with a simple stationary and separable kernel function such as the squared-exponential kernel with automatic relevance determination (SE-ARD). However, such simple kernel specifications are deficient in learning functions with complex features, such as being nonstationary, nonseparable, and multimodal. Approximating such functions using a local GP, even in a low-dimensional space, requires a large number of samples, not to mention in a high-dimensional setting. In this paper, we propose to use Bayesian Kernelized Tensor Factorization (BKTF) -- as a new surrogate model -- for BO in a $D$-dimensional Cartesian product space. Our key idea is to approximate the underlying $D$-dimensional solid with a fully Bayesian low-rank tensor CP decomposition, in which we place GP priors on the latent basis functions for each dimension to encode local consistency and smoothness. With this formulation, information from each sample can be shared not only with neighbors but also across dimensions. Although BKTF no longer has an analytical posterior, we can still efficiently approximate the posterior distribution through Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and obtain prediction and full uncertainty quantification (UQ). We conduct numerical experiments on both standard BO test functions and machine learning hyperparameter tuning problems, and our results show that BKTF offers a flexible and highly effective approach for characterizing complex functions with UQ, especially in cases where the initial sample size and budget are severely limited.
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The streaming model is an abstraction of computing over massive data streams, which is a popular way of dealing with large-scale modern data analysis. In this model, there is a stream of data points, one after the other. A streaming algorithm is only allowed one pass over the data stream, and the goal is to perform some analysis during the stream while using as small space as possible. Clustering problems (such as $k$-means and $k$-median) are fundamental unsupervised machine learning primitives, and streaming clustering algorithms have been extensively studied in the past. However, since data privacy becomes a central concern in many real-world applications, non-private clustering algorithms are not applicable in many scenarios. In this work, we provide the first differentially private streaming algorithms for $k$-means and $k$-median clustering of $d$-dimensional Euclidean data points over a stream with length at most $T$ using $poly(k,d,\log(T))$ space to achieve a {\it constant} multiplicative error and a $poly(k,d,\log(T))$ additive error. In particular, we present a differentially private streaming clustering framework which only requires an offline DP coreset algorithm as a blackbox. By plugging in existing DP coreset results via Ghazi, Kumar, Manurangsi 2020 and Kaplan, Stemmer 2018, we achieve (1) a $(1+\gamma)$-multiplicative approximation with $\tilde{O}_\gamma(poly(k,d,\log(T)))$ space for any $\gamma>0$, and the additive error is $poly(k,d,\log(T))$ or (2) an $O(1)$-multiplicative approximation with $\tilde{O}(k \cdot poly(d,\log(T)))$ space and $poly(k,d,\log(T))$ additive error. In addition, our algorithmic framework is also differentially private under the continual release setting, i.e., the union of outputs of our algorithms at every timestamp is always differentially private.
We propose a novel learning-based surrogate data assimilation (DA) model for efficient state estimation in a limited area. Our model employs a feedforward neural network for online computation, eliminating the need for integrating high-dimensional limited-area models. This approach offers significant computational advantages over traditional DA algorithms. Furthermore, our method avoids the requirement of lateral boundary conditions for the limited-area model in both online and offline computations. The design of our surrogate DA model is built upon a robust theoretical framework that leverages two fundamental concepts: observability and effective region. The concept of observability enables us to quantitatively determine the optimal amount of observation data necessary for accurate DA. Meanwhile, the concept of effective region substantially reduces the computational burden associated with computing observability and generating training data.
The edit distance is a fundamental measure of sequence similarity, defined as the minimum number of character insertions, deletions, and substitutions needed to transform one string into the other. Given two strings of length at most $n$, simple dynamic programming computes their edit distance exactly in $O(n^2)$ time, which is also the best possible (up to subpolynomial factors) assuming the Strong Exponential Time Hypothesis (SETH). The last few decades have seen tremendous progress in edit distance approximation, where the runtime has been brought down to subquadratic, near-linear, and even sublinear at the cost of approximation. In this paper, we study the dynamic edit distance problem, where the strings change dynamically as the characters are substituted, inserted, or deleted over time. Each change may happen at any location of either of the two strings. The goal is to maintain the (exact or approximate) edit distance of such dynamic strings while minimizing the update time. The exact edit distance can be maintained in $\tilde{O}(n)$ time per update (Charalampopoulos, Kociumaka, Mozes; 2020), which is again tight assuming SETH. Unfortunately, even with the unprecedented progress in edit distance approximation in the static setting, strikingly little is known regarding dynamic edit distance approximation. Utilizing the off-the-shelf tools, it is possible to achieve an $O(n^{c})$-approximation in $n^{0.5-c+o(1)}$ update time for any constant $c\in [0,\frac16]$. Improving upon this trade-off remains open. The contribution of this work is a dynamic $n^{o(1)}$-approximation algorithm with amortized expected update time of $n^{o(1)}$. In other words, we bring the approximation-ratio and update-time product down to $n^{o(1)}$. Our solution utilizes an elegant framework of precision sampling tree for edit distance approximation (Andoni, Krauthgamer, Onak; 2010).
Bayesian model comparison (BMC) offers a principled approach for assessing the relative merits of competing computational models and propagating uncertainty into model selection decisions. However, BMC is often intractable for the popular class of hierarchical models due to their high-dimensional nested parameter structure. To address this intractability, we propose a deep learning method for performing BMC on any set of hierarchical models which can be instantiated as probabilistic programs. Since our method enables amortized inference, it allows efficient re-estimation of posterior model probabilities and fast performance validation prior to any real-data application. In a series of extensive validation studies, we benchmark the performance of our method against the state-of-the-art bridge sampling method and demonstrate excellent amortized inference across all BMC settings. We then showcase our method by comparing four hierarchical evidence accumulation models that have previously been deemed intractable for BMC due to partly implicit likelihoods. In this application, we corroborate evidence for the recently proposed L\'evy flight model of decision-making and show how transfer learning can be leveraged to enhance training efficiency. We provide reproducible code for all analyses and an open-source implementation of our method.
Recently Chen and Poor initiated the study of learning mixtures of linear dynamical systems. While linear dynamical systems already have wide-ranging applications in modeling time-series data, using mixture models can lead to a better fit or even a richer understanding of underlying subpopulations represented in the data. In this work we give a new approach to learning mixtures of linear dynamical systems that is based on tensor decompositions. As a result, our algorithm succeeds without strong separation conditions on the components, and can be used to compete with the Bayes optimal clustering of the trajectories. Moreover our algorithm works in the challenging partially-observed setting. Our starting point is the simple but powerful observation that the classic Ho-Kalman algorithm is a close relative of modern tensor decomposition methods for learning latent variable models. This gives us a playbook for how to extend it to work with more complicated generative models.
For predictive modeling relying on Bayesian inversion, fully independent, or ``mean-field'', Gaussian distributions are often used as approximate probability density functions in variational inference since the number of variational parameters is twice the number of unknown model parameters. The resulting diagonal covariance structure coupled with unimodal behavior can be too restrictive when dealing with highly non-Gaussian behavior, including multimodality. High-fidelity surrogate posteriors in the form of Gaussian mixtures can capture any distribution to an arbitrary degree of accuracy while maintaining some analytical tractability. Variational inference with Gaussian mixtures with full-covariance structures suffers from a quadratic growth in variational parameters with the number of model parameters. Coupled with the existence of multiple local minima due to nonconvex trends in the loss functions often associated with variational inference, these challenges motivate the need for robust initialization procedures to improve the performance and scalability of variational inference with mixture models. In this work, we propose a method for constructing an initial Gaussian mixture model approximation that can be used to warm-start the iterative solvers for variational inference. The procedure begins with an optimization stage in model parameter space in which local gradient-based optimization, globalized through multistart, is used to determine a set of local maxima, which we take to approximate the mixture component centers. Around each mode, a local Gaussian approximation is constructed via the Laplace method. Finally, the mixture weights are determined through constrained least squares regression. Robustness and scalability are demonstrated using synthetic tests. The methodology is applied to an inversion problem in structural dynamics involving unknown viscous damping coefficients.
The accurate modeling of dynamics in interactive environments is critical for successful long-range prediction. Such a capability could advance Reinforcement Learning (RL) and Planning algorithms, but achieving it is challenging. Inaccuracies in model estimates can compound, resulting in increased errors over long horizons. We approach this problem from the lens of Koopman theory, where the nonlinear dynamics of the environment can be linearized in a high-dimensional latent space. This allows us to efficiently parallelize the sequential problem of long-range prediction using convolution, while accounting for the agent's action at every time step. Our approach also enables stability analysis and better control over gradients through time. Taken together, these advantages result in significant improvement over the existing approaches, both in the efficiency and the accuracy of modeling dynamics over extended horizons. We also report promising experimental results in dynamics modeling for the scenarios of both model-based planning and model-free RL.
Gaussian Process Networks (GPNs) are a class of directed graphical models which employ Gaussian processes as priors for the conditional expectation of each variable given its parents in the network. The model allows describing continuous joint distributions in a compact but flexible manner with minimal parametric assumptions on the dependencies between variables. Bayesian structure learning of GPNs requires computing the posterior over graphs of the network and is computationally infeasible even in low dimensions. This work implements Monte Carlo and Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods to sample from the posterior distribution of network structures. As such, the approach follows the Bayesian paradigm, comparing models via their marginal likelihood and computing the posterior probability of the GPN features. Simulation studies show that our method outperforms state-of-the-art algorithms in recovering the graphical structure of the network and provides an accurate approximation of its posterior distribution.
We consider the estimation of factor model-based variance-covariance matrix when the factor loading matrix is assumed sparse. To do so, we rely on a system of penalized estimating functions to account for the identification issue of the factor loading matrix while fostering sparsity in potentially all its entries. We prove the oracle property of the penalized estimator for the factor model when the dimension is fixed. That is, the penalization procedure can recover the true sparse support, and the estimator is asymptotically normally distributed. Consistency and recovery of the true zero entries are established when the number of parameters is diverging. These theoretical results are supported by simulation experiments, and the relevance of the proposed method is illustrated by an application to portfolio allocation.
Substantial progress has been made recently on developing provably accurate and efficient algorithms for low-rank matrix factorization via nonconvex optimization. While conventional wisdom often takes a dim view of nonconvex optimization algorithms due to their susceptibility to spurious local minima, simple iterative methods such as gradient descent have been remarkably successful in practice. The theoretical footings, however, had been largely lacking until recently. In this tutorial-style overview, we highlight the important role of statistical models in enabling efficient nonconvex optimization with performance guarantees. We review two contrasting approaches: (1) two-stage algorithms, which consist of a tailored initialization step followed by successive refinement; and (2) global landscape analysis and initialization-free algorithms. Several canonical matrix factorization problems are discussed, including but not limited to matrix sensing, phase retrieval, matrix completion, blind deconvolution, robust principal component analysis, phase synchronization, and joint alignment. Special care is taken to illustrate the key technical insights underlying their analyses. This article serves as a testament that the integrated consideration of optimization and statistics leads to fruitful research findings.
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