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Regression models are used in a wide range of applications providing a powerful scientific tool for researchers from different fields. Linear, or simple parametric, models are often not sufficient to describe complex relationships between input variables and a response. Such relationships can be better described through flexible approaches such as neural networks, but this results in less interpretable models and potential overfitting. Alternatively, specific parametric nonlinear functions can be used, but the specification of such functions is in general complicated. In this paper, we introduce a flexible approach for the construction and selection of highly flexible nonlinear parametric regression models. Nonlinear features are generated hierarchically, similarly to deep learning, but have additional flexibility on the possible types of features to be considered. This flexibility, combined with variable selection, allows us to find a small set of important features and thereby more interpretable models. Within the space of possible functions, a Bayesian approach, introducing priors for functions based on their complexity, is considered. A genetically modified mode jumping Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm is adopted to perform Bayesian inference and estimate posterior probabilities for model averaging. In various applications, we illustrate how our approach is used to obtain meaningful nonlinear models. Additionally, we compare its predictive performance with several machine learning algorithms.

This paper presents a novel Bayesian approach for hyperspectral image unmixing. The observed pixels are modeled by a linear combination of material signatures weighted by their corresponding abundances. A spike-and-slab abundance prior is adopted to promote sparse mixtures and an Ising prior model is used to capture spatial correlation of the mixture support across pixels. We approximate the posterior distribution of the abundances using the expectation-propagation (EP) method. We show that it can significantly reduce the computational complexity of the unmixing stage and meanwhile provide uncertainty measures, compared to expensive Monte Carlo strategies traditionally considered for uncertainty quantification. Moreover, many variational parameters within each EP factor can be updated in a parallel manner, which enables mapping of efficient algorithmic architectures based on graphics processing units (GPU). Under the same approximate Bayesian framework, we then extend the proposed algorithm to semi-supervised unmixing, whereby the abundances are viewed as latent variables and the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm is used to refine the endmember matrix. Experimental results on synthetic data and real hyperspectral data illustrate the benefits of the proposed framework over state-of-art linear unmixing methods.

We consider functional data which are measured on a discrete set of observation points. Often such data are measured with additional noise. We explore in this paper the factor structure underlying this type of data. We show that the latent signal can be attributed to the common components of a corresponding factor model and can be estimated accordingly, by borrowing methods from factor model literature. We also show that principal components, which play a key role in functional data analysis, can be accurately estimated after taking such a multivariate instead of a `functional' perspective. In addition to the estimation problem, we also address testing of the null-hypothesis of iid noise. While this assumption is largely prevailing in the literature, we believe that it is often unrealistic and not supported by a residual analysis.

Sparse model identification enables the discovery of nonlinear dynamical systems purely from data; however, this approach is sensitive to noise, especially in the low-data limit. In this work, we leverage the statistical approach of bootstrap aggregating (bagging) to robustify the sparse identification of nonlinear dynamics (SINDy) algorithm. First, an ensemble of SINDy models is identified from subsets of limited and noisy data. The aggregate model statistics are then used to produce inclusion probabilities of the candidate functions, which enables uncertainty quantification and probabilistic forecasts. We apply this ensemble-SINDy (E-SINDy) algorithm to several synthetic and real-world data sets and demonstrate substantial improvements to the accuracy and robustness of model discovery from extremely noisy and limited data. For example, E-SINDy uncovers partial differential equations models from data with more than twice as much measurement noise as has been previously reported. Similarly, E-SINDy learns the Lotka Volterra dynamics from remarkably limited data of yearly lynx and hare pelts collected from 1900-1920. E-SINDy is computationally efficient, with similar scaling as standard SINDy. Finally, we show that ensemble statistics from E-SINDy can be exploited for active learning and improved model predictive control.

Short-time Fourier transform (STFT) is the most common window-based approach for analyzing the spectrotemporal dynamics of time series. To mitigate the effects of high variance on the spectral estimates due to finite-length, independent STFT windows, state-space multitaper (SSMT) method used a state-space framework to introduce dependency among the spectral estimates. However, the assumed time-invariance of the state-space parameters makes the spectral dynamics difficult to capture when the time series is highly nonstationary. We propose an adaptive SSMT (ASSMT) method as a time-varying extension of SSMT. ASSMT tracks highly nonstationary dynamics by adaptively updating the state parameters and Kalman gains using a heuristic, computationally efficient exponential smoothing technique. In analyses of simulated data and real human electroencephalogram (EEG) recordings, ASSMT showed improved denoising and smoothing properties relative to standard multitaper and SSMT approaches.

Gaussian Process (GPs) models are a rich distribution over functions with inductive biases controlled by a kernel function. Learning occurs through the optimisation of kernel hyperparameters using the marginal likelihood as the objective. This classical approach known as Type-II maximum likelihood (ML-II) yields point estimates of the hyperparameters, and continues to be the default method for training GPs. However, this approach risks underestimating predictive uncertainty and is prone to overfitting especially when there are many hyperparameters. Furthermore, gradient based optimisation makes ML-II point estimates highly susceptible to the presence of local minima. This work presents an alternative learning procedure where the hyperparameters of the kernel function are marginalised using Nested Sampling (NS), a technique that is well suited to sample from complex, multi-modal distributions. We focus on regression tasks with the spectral mixture (SM) class of kernels and find that a principled approach to quantifying model uncertainty leads to substantial gains in predictive performance across a range of synthetic and benchmark data sets. In this context, nested sampling is also found to offer a speed advantage over Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC), widely considered to be the gold-standard in MCMC based inference.

Federated learning describes the distributed training of models across multiple clients while keeping the data private on-device. In this work, we view the server-orchestrated federated learning process as a hierarchical latent variable model where the server provides the parameters of a prior distribution over the client-specific model parameters. We show that with simple Gaussian priors and a hard version of the well known Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm, learning in such a model corresponds to FedAvg, the most popular algorithm for the federated learning setting. This perspective on FedAvg unifies several recent works in the field and opens up the possibility for extensions through different choices for the hierarchical model. Based on this view, we further propose a variant of the hierarchical model that employs prior distributions to promote sparsity. By similarly using the hard-EM algorithm for learning, we obtain FedSparse, a procedure that can learn sparse neural networks in the federated learning setting. FedSparse reduces communication costs from client to server and vice-versa, as well as the computational costs for inference with the sparsified network - both of which are of great practical importance in federated learning.

Training datasets for machine learning often have some form of missingness. For example, to learn a model for deciding whom to give a loan, the available training data includes individuals who were given a loan in the past, but not those who were not. This missingness, if ignored, nullifies any fairness guarantee of the training procedure when the model is deployed. Using causal graphs, we characterize the missingness mechanisms in different real-world scenarios. We show conditions under which various distributions, used in popular fairness algorithms, can or can not be recovered from the training data. Our theoretical results imply that many of these algorithms can not guarantee fairness in practice. Modeling missingness also helps to identify correct design principles for fair algorithms. For example, in multi-stage settings where decisions are made in multiple screening rounds, we use our framework to derive the minimal distributions required to design a fair algorithm. Our proposed algorithm decentralizes the decision-making process and still achieves similar performance to the optimal algorithm that requires centralization and non-recoverable distributions.

Deep neural networks and decision trees operate on largely separate paradigms; typically, the former performs representation learning with pre-specified architectures, while the latter is characterised by learning hierarchies over pre-specified features with data-driven architectures. We unite the two via adaptive neural trees (ANTs), a model that incorporates representation learning into edges, routing functions and leaf nodes of a decision tree, along with a backpropagation-based training algorithm that adaptively grows the architecture from primitive modules (e.g., convolutional layers). ANTs allow increased interpretability via hierarchical clustering, e.g., learning meaningful class associations, such as separating natural vs. man-made objects. We demonstrate this on classification and regression tasks, achieving over 99% and 90% accuracy on the MNIST and CIFAR-10 datasets, and outperforming standard neural networks, random forests and gradient boosted trees on the SARCOS dataset. Furthermore, ANT optimisation naturally adapts the architecture to the size and complexity of the training data.

We study the problem of learning a latent variable model from a stream of data. Latent variable models are popular in practice because they can explain observed data in terms of unobserved concepts. These models have been traditionally studied in the offline setting. In the online setting, on the other hand, the online EM is arguably the most popular algorithm for learning latent variable models. Although the online EM is computationally efficient, it typically converges to a local optimum. In this work, we develop a new online learning algorithm for latent variable models, which we call SpectralLeader. SpectralLeader always converges to the global optimum, and we derive a sublinear upper bound on its $n$-step regret in the bag-of-words model. In both synthetic and real-world experiments, we show that SpectralLeader performs similarly to or better than the online EM with tuned hyper-parameters.