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In this work, a fully nonparametric geostatistical approach to estimate threshold exceeding probabilities is proposed. To estimate the large-scale variability (spatial trend) of the process, the nonparametric local linear regression estimator, with the bandwidth selected by a method that takes the spatial dependence into account, is used. A bias-corrected nonparametric estimator of the variogram, obtained from the nonparametric residuals, is proposed to estimate the small-scale variability. Finally, a bootstrap algorithm is designed to estimate the unconditional probabilities of exceeding a threshold value at any location. The behavior of this approach is evaluated through simulation and with an application to a real data set.

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Algorithms for initializing particle distribution in SPH simulations of complex geometries have been proven essential for improving the accuracy of SPH simulations. However, no such algorithms exist for boundary integral SPH models, which can model complex geometries without needing virtual particle layers. This study introduces a Boundary Integral based Particle Initialization (BIPI) algorithm. It consists of a particle-shifting technique carefully designed to redistribute particles to fit the boundary by using the boundary integral formulation for particles adjacent to the boundary. The proposed BIPI algorithm gives special consideration to particles adjacent to the boundary to prevent artificial volume compression. It can automatically produce a "uniform" particle distribution with reduced and stabilized concentration gradient for domains with complex geometrical shapes. Finally, a number of examples are presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm.

Three approaches for adaptively tuning diagonal scale matrices for HMC are discussed and compared. The common practice of scaling according to estimated marginal standard deviations is taken as a benchmark. Scaling according to the mean log-target gradient (ISG), and a scaling method targeting that the frequency of when the underlying Hamiltonian dynamics crosses the respective medians should be uniform across dimensions, are taken as alternatives. Numerical studies suggest that the ISG method leads in many cases to more efficient sampling than the benchmark, in particular in cases with strong correlations or non-linear dependencies. The ISG method is also easy to implement, computationally cheap and would be relatively simple to include in automatically tuned codes as an alternative to the benchmark practice.

Signed graphs are an emergent way of representing data in a variety of contexts were conflicting interactions exist. These include data from biological, ecological, and social systems. Here we propose the concept of communicability geometry for signed graphs, proving that metrics in this space, such as the communicability distance and angles, are Euclidean and spherical. We then apply these metrics to solve several problems in data analysis of signed graphs in a unified way. They include the partitioning of signed graphs, dimensionality reduction, finding hierarchies of alliances in signed networks as well as the quantification of the degree of polarization between the existing factions in systems represented by this type of graphs.

Purpose: To investigate whether Fractal Dimension (FD)-based oculomics could be used for individual risk prediction by evaluating repeatability and robustness. Methods: We used two datasets: Caledonia, healthy adults imaged multiple times in quick succession for research (26 subjects, 39 eyes, 377 colour fundus images), and GRAPE, glaucoma patients with baseline and follow-up visits (106 subjects, 196 eyes, 392 images). Mean follow-up time was 18.3 months in GRAPE, thus it provides a pessimistic lower-bound as vasculature could change. FD was computed with DART and AutoMorph. Image quality was assessed with QuickQual, but no images were initially excluded. Pearson, Spearman, and Intraclass Correlation (ICC) were used for population-level repeatability. For individual-level repeatability, we introduce measurement noise parameter {\lambda} which is within-eye Standard Deviation (SD) of FD measurements in units of between-eyes SD. Results: In Caledonia, ICC was 0.8153 for DART and 0.5779 for AutoMorph, Pearson/Spearman correlation (first and last image) 0.7857/0.7824 for DART, and 0.3933/0.6253 for AutoMorph. In GRAPE, Pearson/Spearman correlation (first and next visit) was 0.7479/0.7474 for DART, and 0.7109/0.7208 for AutoMorph (all p<0.0001). Median {\lambda} in Caledonia without exclusions was 3.55\% for DART and 12.65\% for AutoMorph, and improved to up to 1.67\% and 6.64\% with quality-based exclusions, respectively. Quality exclusions primarily mitigated large outliers. Worst quality in an eye correlated strongly with {\lambda} (Pearson 0.5350-0.7550, depending on dataset and method, all p<0.0001). Conclusions: Repeatability was sufficient for individual-level predictions in heterogeneous populations. DART performed better on all metrics and might be able to detect small, longitudinal changes, highlighting the potential of robust methods.

In the present study, the efficiency of preconditioners for solving linear systems associated with the discretized variable-density incompressible Navier-Stokes equations with semiimplicit second-order accuracy in time and spectral accuracy in space is investigated. The method, in which the inverse operator for the constant-density flow system acts as preconditioner, is implemented for three iterative solvers: the General Minimal Residual, the Conjugate Gradient and the Richardson Minimal Residual. We discuss the method, first, in the context of the one-dimensional flow case where a top-hat like profile for the density is used. Numerical evidence shows that the convergence is significantly improved due to the notable decrease in the condition number of the operators. Most importantly, we then validate the robustness and convergence properties of the method on two more realistic problems: the two-dimensional Rayleigh-Taylor instability problem and the three-dimensional variable-density swirling jet.

We consider linear bounded operators acting in Banach spaces with a basis, such operators can be represented by an infinite matrix. We prove that for an invertible operator there exists a sequence of invertible finite-dimensional operators so that the family of norms of their inverses is uniformly bounded. It leads to the fact that solutions of finite-dimensional equations converge to the solution of initial operator equation with infinite-dimensional matrix.

We consider the graphon mean-field system introduced in the work of Bayraktar, Chakraborty, and Wu. It is the large-population limit of a heterogeneously interacting diffusive particle system, where the interaction is of mean-field type with weights characterized by an underlying graphon function. Through observation of continuous-time trajectories within the particle system, we construct plug-in estimators of the particle density, the drift coefficient, and thus the graphon interaction weights of the mean-field system. Our estimators for the density and drift are direct results of kernel interpolation on the empirical data, and a deconvolution method leads to an estimator of the underlying graphon function. We show that, as the number of particles increases, the graphon estimator converges to the true graphon function pointwisely, and as a consequence, in the cut metric. Besides, we conduct a minimax analysis within a particular class of particle systems to justify the pointwise optimality of the density and drift estimators.

The purpose of this work is to introduce a strategy for determining the nodes and weights of a low-cardinality positive cubature formula nearly exact for polynomials of a given degree over spherical polygons. In the numerical section we report the results about numerical cubature over a spherical polygon $\cal P$ approximating Australia and reconstruction of functions over such $\cal P$, also affected by perturbations, via hyperinterpolation and some of its variants. The open-source Matlab software used in the numerical tests is available at the author's homepage.

To date, most methods for simulating conditioned diffusions are limited to the Euclidean setting. The conditioned process can be constructed using a change of measure known as Doob's $h$-transform. The specific type of conditioning depends on a function $h$ which is typically unknown in closed form. To resolve this, we extend the notion of guided processes to a manifold $M$, where one replaces $h$ by a function based on the heat kernel on $M$. We consider the case of a Brownian motion with drift, constructed using the frame bundle of $M$, conditioned to hit a point $x_T$ at time $T$. We prove equivalence of the laws of the conditioned process and the guided process with a tractable Radon-Nikodym derivative. Subsequently, we show how one can obtain guided processes on any manifold $N$ that is diffeomorphic to $M$ without assuming knowledge of the heat kernel on $N$. We illustrate our results with numerical simulations and an example of parameter estimation where a diffusion process on the torus is observed discretely in time.

The goal of explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) is to generate human-interpretable explanations, but there are no computationally precise theories of how humans interpret AI generated explanations. The lack of theory means that validation of XAI must be done empirically, on a case-by-case basis, which prevents systematic theory-building in XAI. We propose a psychological theory of how humans draw conclusions from saliency maps, the most common form of XAI explanation, which for the first time allows for precise prediction of explainee inference conditioned on explanation. Our theory posits that absent explanation humans expect the AI to make similar decisions to themselves, and that they interpret an explanation by comparison to the explanations they themselves would give. Comparison is formalized via Shepard's universal law of generalization in a similarity space, a classic theory from cognitive science. A pre-registered user study on AI image classifications with saliency map explanations demonstrate that our theory quantitatively matches participants' predictions of the AI.

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