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Learning with noisy labels is a vital topic for practical deep learning as models should be robust to noisy open-world datasets in the wild. The state-of-the-art noisy label learning approach JoCoR fails when faced with a large ratio of noisy labels. Moreover, selecting small-loss samples can also cause error accumulation as once the noisy samples are mistakenly selected as small-loss samples, they are more likely to be selected again. In this paper, we try to deal with error accumulation in noisy label learning from both model and data perspectives. We introduce mean point ensemble to utilize a more robust loss function and more information from unselected samples to reduce error accumulation from the model perspective. Furthermore, as the flip images have the same semantic meaning as the original images, we select small-loss samples according to the loss values of flip images instead of the original ones to reduce error accumulation from the data perspective. Extensive experiments on CIFAR-10, CIFAR-100, and large-scale Clothing1M show that our method outperforms state-of-the-art noisy label learning methods with different levels of label noise. Our method can also be seamlessly combined with other noisy label learning methods to further improve their performance and generalize well to other tasks. The code is available in //github.com/zyh-uaiaaaa/MDA-noisy-label-learning.

Intensive Care Units usually carry patients with a serious risk of mortality. Recent research has shown the ability of Machine Learning to indicate the patients' mortality risk and point physicians toward individuals with a heightened need for care. Nevertheless, healthcare data is often subject to privacy regulations and can therefore not be easily shared in order to build Centralized Machine Learning models that use the combined data of multiple hospitals. Federated Learning is a Machine Learning framework designed for data privacy that can be used to circumvent this problem. In this study, we evaluate the ability of deep Federated Learning to predict the risk of Intensive Care Unit mortality at an early stage. We compare the predictive performance of Federated, Centralized, and Local Machine Learning in terms of AUPRC, F1-score, and AUROC. Our results show that Federated Learning performs equally well as the centralized approach and is substantially better than the local approach, thus providing a viable solution for early Intensive Care Unit mortality prediction. In addition, we show that the prediction performance is higher when the patient history window is closer to discharge or death. Finally, we show that using the F1-score as an early stopping metric can stabilize and increase the performance of our approach for the task at hand.

Auto-regressive moving-average (ARMA) models are ubiquitous forecasting tools. Parsimony in such models is highly valued for their interpretability and computational tractability, and as such the identification of model orders remains a fundamental task. We propose a novel method of ARMA order identification through projection predictive inference, which is grounded in Bayesian decision theory and naturally allows for uncertainty communication. It benefits from improved stability through the use of a reference model. The procedure consists of two steps: in the first, the practitioner incorporates their understanding of underlying data-generating process into a reference model, which we latterly project onto possibly parsimonious submodels. These submodels are optimally inferred to best replicate the predictive performance of the reference model. We further propose a search heuristic amenable to the ARMA framework. We show that the submodels selected by our procedure exhibit predictive performance at least as good as those produced by auto.arima over simulated and real-data experiments, and in some cases out-perform the latter. Finally we show that our procedure is robust to noise, and scales well to larger data.

We study the fundamental question of how to define and measure the distance from calibration for probabilistic predictors. While the notion of perfect calibration is well-understood, there is no consensus on how to quantify the distance from perfect calibration. Numerous calibration measures have been proposed in the literature, but it is unclear how they compare to each other, and many popular measures such as Expected Calibration Error (ECE) fail to satisfy basic properties like continuity. We present a rigorous framework for analyzing calibration measures, inspired by the literature on property testing. We propose a ground-truth notion of distance from calibration: the $\ell_1$ distance to the nearest perfectly calibrated predictor. We define a consistent calibration measure as one that is a polynomial factor approximation to the this distance. Applying our framework, we identify three calibration measures that are consistent and can be estimated efficiently: smooth calibration, interval calibration, and Laplace kernel calibration. The former two give quadratic approximations to the ground truth distance, which we show is information-theoretically optimal. Our work thus establishes fundamental lower and upper bounds on measuring distance to calibration, and also provides theoretical justification for preferring certain metrics (like Laplace kernel calibration) in practice.

The matrix-based R\'enyi's entropy allows us to directly quantify information measures from given data, without explicit estimation of the underlying probability distribution. This intriguing property makes it widely applied in statistical inference and machine learning tasks. However, this information theoretical quantity is not robust against noise in the data, and is computationally prohibitive in large-scale applications. To address these issues, we propose a novel measure of information, termed low-rank matrix-based R\'enyi's entropy, based on low-rank representations of infinitely divisible kernel matrices. The proposed entropy functional inherits the specialty of of the original definition to directly quantify information from data, but enjoys additional advantages including robustness and effective calculation. Specifically, our low-rank variant is more sensitive to informative perturbations induced by changes in underlying distributions, while being insensitive to uninformative ones caused by noises. Moreover, low-rank R\'enyi's entropy can be efficiently approximated by random projection and Lanczos iteration techniques, reducing the overall complexity from $\mathcal{O}(n^3)$ to $\mathcal{O}(n^2 s)$ or even $\mathcal{O}(ns^2)$, where $n$ is the number of data samples and $s \ll n$. We conduct large-scale experiments to evaluate the effectiveness of this new information measure, demonstrating superior results compared to matrix-based R\'enyi's entropy in terms of both performance and computational efficiency.

Transfer learning uses a data model, trained to make predictions or inferences on data from one population, to make reliable predictions or inferences on data from another population. Most existing transfer learning approaches are based on fine-tuning pre-trained neural network models, and fail to provide crucial uncertainty quantification. We develop a statistical framework for model predictions based on transfer learning, called RECaST. The primary mechanism is a Cauchy random effect that recalibrates a source model to a target population; we mathematically and empirically demonstrate the validity of our RECaST approach for transfer learning between linear models, in the sense that prediction sets will achieve their nominal stated coverage, and we numerically illustrate the method's robustness to asymptotic approximations for nonlinear models. Whereas many existing techniques are built on particular source models, RECaST is agnostic to the choice of source model. For example, our RECaST transfer learning approach can be applied to a continuous or discrete data model with linear or logistic regression, deep neural network architectures, etc. Furthermore, RECaST provides uncertainty quantification for predictions, which is mostly absent in the literature. We examine our method's performance in a simulation study and in an application to real hospital data.

The adaptive processing of structured data is a long-standing research topic in machine learning that investigates how to automatically learn a mapping from a structured input to outputs of various nature. Recently, there has been an increasing interest in the adaptive processing of graphs, which led to the development of different neural network-based methodologies. In this thesis, we take a different route and develop a Bayesian Deep Learning framework for graph learning. The dissertation begins with a review of the principles over which most of the methods in the field are built, followed by a study on graph classification reproducibility issues. We then proceed to bridge the basic ideas of deep learning for graphs with the Bayesian world, by building our deep architectures in an incremental fashion. This framework allows us to consider graphs with discrete and continuous edge features, producing unsupervised embeddings rich enough to reach the state of the art on several classification tasks. Our approach is also amenable to a Bayesian nonparametric extension that automatizes the choice of almost all model's hyper-parameters. Two real-world applications demonstrate the efficacy of deep learning for graphs. The first concerns the prediction of information-theoretic quantities for molecular simulations with supervised neural models. After that, we exploit our Bayesian models to solve a malware-classification task while being robust to intra-procedural code obfuscation techniques. We conclude the dissertation with an attempt to blend the best of the neural and Bayesian worlds together. The resulting hybrid model is able to predict multimodal distributions conditioned on input graphs, with the consequent ability to model stochasticity and uncertainty better than most works. Overall, we aim to provide a Bayesian perspective into the articulated research field of deep learning for graphs.

This book develops an effective theory approach to understanding deep neural networks of practical relevance. Beginning from a first-principles component-level picture of networks, we explain how to determine an accurate description of the output of trained networks by solving layer-to-layer iteration equations and nonlinear learning dynamics. A main result is that the predictions of networks are described by nearly-Gaussian distributions, with the depth-to-width aspect ratio of the network controlling the deviations from the infinite-width Gaussian description. We explain how these effectively-deep networks learn nontrivial representations from training and more broadly analyze the mechanism of representation learning for nonlinear models. From a nearly-kernel-methods perspective, we find that the dependence of such models' predictions on the underlying learning algorithm can be expressed in a simple and universal way. To obtain these results, we develop the notion of representation group flow (RG flow) to characterize the propagation of signals through the network. By tuning networks to criticality, we give a practical solution to the exploding and vanishing gradient problem. We further explain how RG flow leads to near-universal behavior and lets us categorize networks built from different activation functions into universality classes. Altogether, we show that the depth-to-width ratio governs the effective model complexity of the ensemble of trained networks. By using information-theoretic techniques, we estimate the optimal aspect ratio at which we expect the network to be practically most useful and show how residual connections can be used to push this scale to arbitrary depths. With these tools, we can learn in detail about the inductive bias of architectures, hyperparameters, and optimizers.

This paper focuses on the expected difference in borrower's repayment when there is a change in the lender's credit decisions. Classical estimators overlook the confounding effects and hence the estimation error can be magnificent. As such, we propose another approach to construct the estimators such that the error can be greatly reduced. The proposed estimators are shown to be unbiased, consistent, and robust through a combination of theoretical analysis and numerical testing. Moreover, we compare the power of estimating the causal quantities between the classical estimators and the proposed estimators. The comparison is tested across a wide range of models, including linear regression models, tree-based models, and neural network-based models, under different simulated datasets that exhibit different levels of causality, different degrees of nonlinearity, and different distributional properties. Most importantly, we apply our approaches to a large observational dataset provided by a global technology firm that operates in both the e-commerce and the lending business. We find that the relative reduction of estimation error is strikingly substantial if the causal effects are accounted for correctly.

With the rapid increase of large-scale, real-world datasets, it becomes critical to address the problem of long-tailed data distribution (i.e., a few classes account for most of the data, while most classes are under-represented). Existing solutions typically adopt class re-balancing strategies such as re-sampling and re-weighting based on the number of observations for each class. In this work, we argue that as the number of samples increases, the additional benefit of a newly added data point will diminish. We introduce a novel theoretical framework to measure data overlap by associating with each sample a small neighboring region rather than a single point. The effective number of samples is defined as the volume of samples and can be calculated by a simple formula $(1-\beta^{n})/(1-\beta)$, where $n$ is the number of samples and $\beta \in [0,1)$ is a hyperparameter. We design a re-weighting scheme that uses the effective number of samples for each class to re-balance the loss, thereby yielding a class-balanced loss. Comprehensive experiments are conducted on artificially induced long-tailed CIFAR datasets and large-scale datasets including ImageNet and iNaturalist. Our results show that when trained with the proposed class-balanced loss, the network is able to achieve significant performance gains on long-tailed datasets.