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Budget-feasible procurement has been a major paradigm in mechanism design since its introduction by Singer (2010). An auctioneer (buyer) with a strict budget constraint is interested in buying goods or services from a group of strategic agents (sellers). In many scenarios it makes sense to allow the auctioneer to only partially buy what an agent offers, e.g., an agent might have multiple copies of an item to sell, they might offer multiple levels of a service, or they may be available to perform a task for any fraction of a specified time interval. Nevertheless, the focus of the related literature has been on settings where each agent's services are either fully acquired or not at all. The main reason for this, is that in settings with partial allocations like the ones mentioned, there are strong inapproximability results (see, e.g., Chan & Chen (2014), Anari et al. (2018)). Under the mild assumption of being able to afford each agent entirely, we are able to circumvent such results in this work. We design a polynomial-time, deterministic, truthful, budget-feasible $(2+\sqrt{3})$-approximation mechanism for the setting where each agent offers multiple levels of service and the auctioneer has a discrete separable concave valuation function. We then use this result to design a deterministic, truthful and budget-feasible mechanism for the setting where any fraction of a service can be acquired and the auctioneer's valuation function is separable concave (i.e., the sum of concave functions). The approximation ratio of this mechanism depends on how `nice' the concave functions are, and is $O(1)$ for valuation functions that are sums of $O(1)$-regular functions (e.g., functions like $\log(1+x)$). For the special case of a linear valuation function, we improve the best known approximation ratio for the problem from $1+\phi$ (by Klumper & Sch\"afer (2022)) to $2$.

We derive an extension of the sequential homotopy method that allows for the application of inexact Krylov methods for the linear (double) saddle-point systems arising in the local semismooth Newton method for the homotopy subproblems. For the class of problems that exhibit (after suitable partitioning of the variables) a zero in the off-diagonal blocks of the Hessian of the Lagrangian, we propose and analyze an efficient, parallelizable, symmetric positive definite preconditioner based on a double Schur complement approach. For discretized optimal control problems with PDE constraints, this structure is often present with the canonical partitioning of the variables in states and controls. We conclude with numerical results for a badly conditioned and highly nonlinear benchmark optimization problem with elliptic partial differential equations and control bounds. The resulting method is faster than using direct linear algebra for the 2D benchmark and allows for the parallel solution of large 3D problems.

In this work, we study the square min-sum bin packing problem (SMSBPP), where a list of square items has to be packed into indexed square bins of dimensions $1 \times 1$ with no overlap between the areas of the items. The bins are indexed and the cost of packing each item is equal to the index of the bin in which it is placed in. The objective is to minimize the total cost of packing all items, which is equivalent to minimizing the average cost of items. The problem has applications in minimizing the average time of logistic operations such as cutting stock and delivery of products. We prove that classic algorithms for two-dimensional bin packing that order items in non-increasing order of size, such as Next Fit Decreasing Height or Any Fit Decreasing Height heuristics, can have an arbitrarily bad performance for SMSBPP. We, then, present a $\frac{53}{22}$-approximation and a PTAS for the problem.

We propose a general framework for obtaining probabilistic solutions to PDE-based inverse problems. Bayesian methods are attractive for uncertainty quantification but assume knowledge of the likelihood model or data generation process. This assumption is difficult to justify in many inverse problems, where the specification of the data generation process is not obvious. We adopt a Gibbs posterior framework that directly posits a regularized variational problem on the space of probability distributions of the parameter. We propose a novel model comparison framework that evaluates the optimality of a given loss based on its ''predictive performance''. We provide cross-validation procedures to calibrate the regularization parameter of the variational objective and compare multiple loss functions. Some novel theoretical properties of Gibbs posteriors are also presented. We illustrate the utility of our framework via a simulated example, motivated by dispersion-based wave models used to characterize arterial vessels in ultrasound vibrometry.

Data-driven control in unknown environments requires a clear understanding of the involved uncertainties for ensuring safety and efficient exploration. While aleatoric uncertainty that arises from measurement noise can often be explicitly modeled given a parametric description, it can be harder to model epistemic uncertainty, which describes the presence or absence of training data. The latter can be particularly useful for implementing exploratory control strategies when system dynamics are unknown. We propose a novel method for detecting the absence of training data using deep learning, which gives a continuous valued scalar output between $0$ (indicating low uncertainty) and $1$ (indicating high uncertainty). We utilize this detector as a proxy for epistemic uncertainty and show its advantages over existing approaches on synthetic and real-world datasets. Our approach can be directly combined with aleatoric uncertainty estimates and allows for uncertainty estimation in real-time as the inference is sample-free unlike existing approaches for uncertainty modeling. We further demonstrate the practicality of this uncertainty estimate in deploying online data-efficient control on a simulated quadcopter acted upon by an unknown disturbance model.

The number of modes in a probability density function is representative of the model's complexity and can also be viewed as the number of existing subpopulations. Despite its relevance, little research has been devoted to its estimation. Focusing on the univariate setting, we propose a novel approach targeting prediction accuracy inspired by some overlooked aspects of the problem. We argue for the need for structure in the solutions, the subjective and uncertain nature of modes, and the convenience of a holistic view blending global and local density properties. Our method builds upon a combination of flexible kernel estimators and parsimonious compositional splines. Feature exploration, model selection and mode testing are implemented in the Bayesian inference paradigm, providing soft solutions and allowing to incorporate expert judgement in the process. The usefulness of our proposal is illustrated through a case study in sports analytics, showcasing multiple companion visualisation tools. A thorough simulation study demonstrates that traditional modality-driven approaches paradoxically struggle to provide accurate results. In this context, our method emerges as a top-tier alternative offering innovative solutions for analysts.

Inverse UQ is the process to inversely quantify the model input uncertainties based on experimental data. This work focuses on developing an inverse UQ process for time-dependent responses, using dimensionality reduction by functional principal component analysis (PCA) and deep neural network (DNN)-based surrogate models. The demonstration is based on the inverse UQ of TRACE physical model parameters using the FEBA transient experimental data. The measurement data is time-dependent peak cladding temperature (PCT). Since the quantity-of-interest (QoI) is time-dependent that corresponds to infinite-dimensional responses, PCA is used to reduce the QoI dimension while preserving the transient profile of the PCT, in order to make the inverse UQ process more efficient. However, conventional PCA applied directly to the PCT time series profiles can hardly represent the data precisely due to the sudden temperature drop at the time of quenching. As a result, a functional alignment method is used to separate the phase and amplitude information of the transient PCT profiles before dimensionality reduction. DNNs are then trained using PC scores from functional PCA to build surrogate models of TRACE in order to reduce the computational cost in Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling. Bayesian neural networks are used to estimate the uncertainties of DNN surrogate model predictions. In this study, we compared four different inverse UQ processes with different dimensionality reduction methods and surrogate models. The proposed approach shows an improvement in reducing the dimension of the TRACE transient simulations, and the forward propagation of inverse UQ results has a better agreement with the experimental data.

In this work we propose a two-step alternative clearing method of day-ahead electricity markets. In the first step, using the aggregation of bids, an approximate clearing is performed, and based on the outcome of this problem, the estimates for the clearing prices of individual periods are derived. These assumptions regarding the range of clearing prices explicitly determine the acceptance indicators for a subset of the original bids. In the subsequent stage, another round of clearing is performed to determine the acceptance indicators of the remaining bids and the market clearing prices. We show that the bid-aggregation based method may result in suboptimal solution or in an infeasible problem in the second step, but we also point out that these pitfalls of the algorithm may be avoided if a different aggregation pattern is used. We propose to define multiple different aggregation patterns, and to use parallel computing to enhance the performance of the algorithm. We test the proposed approach on setups of various problem sizes, and conclude that in the case of parallel computing with 4 threads a significant gain in computational speed may be achieved, with a high success rate.

Due to their increasing spread, confidence in neural network predictions became more and more important. However, basic neural networks do not deliver certainty estimates or suffer from over or under confidence. Many researchers have been working on understanding and quantifying uncertainty in a neural network's prediction. As a result, different types and sources of uncertainty have been identified and a variety of approaches to measure and quantify uncertainty in neural networks have been proposed. This work gives a comprehensive overview of uncertainty estimation in neural networks, reviews recent advances in the field, highlights current challenges, and identifies potential research opportunities. It is intended to give anyone interested in uncertainty estimation in neural networks a broad overview and introduction, without presupposing prior knowledge in this field. A comprehensive introduction to the most crucial sources of uncertainty is given and their separation into reducible model uncertainty and not reducible data uncertainty is presented. The modeling of these uncertainties based on deterministic neural networks, Bayesian neural networks, ensemble of neural networks, and test-time data augmentation approaches is introduced and different branches of these fields as well as the latest developments are discussed. For a practical application, we discuss different measures of uncertainty, approaches for the calibration of neural networks and give an overview of existing baselines and implementations. Different examples from the wide spectrum of challenges in different fields give an idea of the needs and challenges regarding uncertainties in practical applications. Additionally, the practical limitations of current methods for mission- and safety-critical real world applications are discussed and an outlook on the next steps towards a broader usage of such methods is given.

The notion of uncertainty is of major importance in machine learning and constitutes a key element of machine learning methodology. In line with the statistical tradition, uncertainty has long been perceived as almost synonymous with standard probability and probabilistic predictions. Yet, due to the steadily increasing relevance of machine learning for practical applications and related issues such as safety requirements, new problems and challenges have recently been identified by machine learning scholars, and these problems may call for new methodological developments. In particular, this includes the importance of distinguishing between (at least) two different types of uncertainty, often refereed to as aleatoric and epistemic. In this paper, we provide an introduction to the topic of uncertainty in machine learning as well as an overview of hitherto attempts at handling uncertainty in general and formalizing this distinction in particular.