We consider a general proportional odds model for survival data under binary treatment, where the functional form of the covariates is left unspecified. We derive the efficient score for the conditional survival odds ratio given the covariates using modern semiparametric theory. The efficient score may be useful in the development of doubly robust estimators, although computational challenges remain.
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We derive optimality conditions for the optimum sample allocation problem in stratified sampling, formulated as the determination of the fixed strata sample sizes that minimize the total cost of the survey, under the assumed level of variance of the stratified $\pi$ estimator of the population total (or mean) and one-sided upper bounds imposed on sample sizes in strata. In this context, we presume that the variance function is of some generic form that, in particular, covers the case of the simple random sampling without replacement design in strata. The optimality conditions mentioned above will be derived from the Karush-Kuhn-Tucker conditions. Based on the established optimality conditions, we provide a formal proof of the optimality of the existing procedure, termed here as LRNA, which solves the allocation problem considered. We formulate the LRNA in such a way that it also provides the solution to the classical optimum allocation problem (i.e. minimization of the estimator's variance under a fixed total cost) under one-sided lower bounds imposed on sample sizes in strata. In this context, the LRNA can be considered as a counterparty to the popular recursive Neyman allocation procedure that is used to solve the classical problem of an optimum sample allocation with added one-sided upper bounds. Ready-to-use R-implementation of the LRNA is available through our stratallo package, which is published on the Comprehensive R Archive Network (CRAN) package repository.
In computational social choice, the distortion of a voting rule quantifies the degree to which the rule overcomes limited preference information to select a socially desirable outcome. This concept has been investigated extensively, but only through a worst-case lens. Instead, we study the expected distortion of voting rules with respect to an underlying distribution over voter utilities. Our main contribution is the design and analysis of a novel and intuitive rule, binomial voting, which provides strong distribution-independent guarantees for both expected distortion and expected welfare.
Calibrating agent-based models (ABMs) in economics and finance typically involves a derivative-free search in a very large parameter space. In this work, we benchmark a number of search methods in the calibration of a well-known macroeconomic ABM on real data, and further assess the performance of "mixed strategies" made by combining different methods. We find that methods based on random-forest surrogates are particularly efficient, and that combining search methods generally increases performance since the biases of any single method are mitigated. Moving from these observations, we propose a reinforcement learning (RL) scheme to automatically select and combine search methods on-the-fly during a calibration run. The RL agent keeps exploiting a specific method only as long as this keeps performing well, but explores new strategies when the specific method reaches a performance plateau. The resulting RL search scheme outperforms any other method or method combination tested, and does not rely on any prior information or trial and error procedure.
Uniformly valid inference for cointegrated vector autoregressive processes has so far proven difficult due to certain discontinuities arising in the asymptotic distribution of the least squares estimator. We extend asymptotic results from the univariate case to multiple dimensions and show how inference can be based on these results. Furthermore, we show that lag augmentation and a recent instrumental variable procedure can also yield uniformly valid tests and confidence regions. We verify the theoretical findings and investigate finite sample properties in simulation experiments for two specific examples.
Sequence prediction on temporal data requires the ability to understand compositional structures of multi-level semantics beyond individual and contextual properties. The task of temporal action segmentation, which aims at translating an untrimmed activity video into a sequence of action segments, remains challenging for this reason. This paper addresses the problem by introducing an effective activity grammar to guide neural predictions for temporal action segmentation. We propose a novel grammar induction algorithm that extracts a powerful context-free grammar from action sequence data. We also develop an efficient generalized parser that transforms frame-level probability distributions into a reliable sequence of actions according to the induced grammar with recursive rules. Our approach can be combined with any neural network for temporal action segmentation to enhance the sequence prediction and discover its compositional structure. Experimental results demonstrate that our method significantly improves temporal action segmentation in terms of both performance and interpretability on two standard benchmarks, Breakfast and 50 Salads.
We consider a distributed coding for computing problem with constant decoding locality, i.e. with a vanishing error probability, any single sample of the function can be approximately recovered by probing only constant number of compressed bits. We establish an achievable rate region by designing an efficient coding scheme. The scheme reduces the required rate by introducing auxiliary random variables and supports local decoding at the same time. Then we show the rate region is optimal under mild regularity conditions on source distributions. A coding for computing problem with side information is analogously studied. These results indicate that more rate has to be taken in order to achieve lower coding complexity in distributed computing settings. Moreover, useful graph characterizations are developed to simplify the computation of the achievable rate region.
Reliable and efficient trajectory optimization methods are a fundamental need for autonomous dynamical systems, effectively enabling applications including rocket landing, hypersonic reentry, spacecraft rendezvous, and docking. Within such safety-critical application areas, the complexity of the emerging trajectory optimization problems has motivated the application of AI-based techniques to enhance the performance of traditional approaches. However, current AI-based methods either attempt to fully replace traditional control algorithms, thus lacking constraint satisfaction guarantees and incurring in expensive simulation, or aim to solely imitate the behavior of traditional methods via supervised learning. To address these limitations, this paper proposes the Autonomous Rendezvous Transformer (ART) and assesses the capability of modern generative models to solve complex trajectory optimization problems, both from a forecasting and control standpoint. Specifically, this work assesses the capabilities of Transformers to (i) learn near-optimal policies from previously collected data, and (ii) warm-start a sequential optimizer for the solution of non-convex optimal control problems, thus guaranteeing hard constraint satisfaction. From a forecasting perspective, results highlight how ART outperforms other learning-based architectures at predicting known fuel-optimal trajectories. From a control perspective, empirical analyses show how policies learned through Transformers are able to generate near-optimal warm-starts, achieving trajectories that are (i) more fuel-efficient, (ii) obtained in fewer sequential optimizer iterations, and (iii) computed with an overall runtime comparable to benchmarks based on convex optimization.
Biases in the dataset often enable the model to achieve high performance on in-distribution data, while poorly performing on out-of-distribution data. To mitigate the detrimental effect of the bias on the networks, previous works have proposed debiasing methods that down-weight the biased examples identified by an auxiliary model, which is trained with explicit bias labels. However, finding a type of bias in datasets is a costly process. Therefore, recent studies have attempted to make the auxiliary model biased without the guidance (or annotation) of bias labels, by constraining the model's training environment or the capability of the model itself. Despite the promising debiasing results of recent works, the multi-class learning objective, which has been naively used to train the auxiliary model, may harm the bias mitigation effect due to its regularization effect and competitive nature across classes. As an alternative, we propose a new debiasing framework that introduces binary classifiers between the auxiliary model and the main model, coined bias experts. Specifically, each bias expert is trained on a binary classification task derived from the multi-class classification task via the One-vs-Rest approach. Experimental results demonstrate that our proposed strategy improves the bias identification ability of the auxiliary model. Consequently, our debiased model consistently outperforms the state-of-the-art on various challenge datasets.
Kernel methods are a popular class of nonlinear predictive models in machine learning. Scalable algorithms for learning kernel models need to be iterative in nature, but convergence can be slow due to poor conditioning. Spectral preconditioning is an important tool to speed-up the convergence of such iterative algorithms for training kernel models. However computing and storing a spectral preconditioner can be expensive which can lead to large computational and storage overheads, precluding the application of kernel methods to problems with large datasets. A Nystrom approximation of the spectral preconditioner is often cheaper to compute and store, and has demonstrated success in practical applications. In this paper we analyze the trade-offs of using such an approximated preconditioner. Specifically, we show that a sample of logarithmic size (as a function of the size of the dataset) enables the Nystrom-based approximated preconditioner to accelerate gradient descent nearly as well as the exact preconditioner, while also reducing the computational and storage overheads.
Object detection typically assumes that training and test data are drawn from an identical distribution, which, however, does not always hold in practice. Such a distribution mismatch will lead to a significant performance drop. In this work, we aim to improve the cross-domain robustness of object detection. We tackle the domain shift on two levels: 1) the image-level shift, such as image style, illumination, etc, and 2) the instance-level shift, such as object appearance, size, etc. We build our approach based on the recent state-of-the-art Faster R-CNN model, and design two domain adaptation components, on image level and instance level, to reduce the domain discrepancy. The two domain adaptation components are based on H-divergence theory, and are implemented by learning a domain classifier in adversarial training manner. The domain classifiers on different levels are further reinforced with a consistency regularization to learn a domain-invariant region proposal network (RPN) in the Faster R-CNN model. We evaluate our newly proposed approach using multiple datasets including Cityscapes, KITTI, SIM10K, etc. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed approach for robust object detection in various domain shift scenarios.
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