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Many approaches have been proposed to use diffusion models to augment training datasets for downstream tasks, such as classification. However, diffusion models are themselves trained on large datasets, often with noisy annotations, and it remains an open question to which extent these models contribute to downstream classification performance. In particular, it remains unclear if they generalize enough to improve over directly using the additional data of their pre-training process for augmentation. We systematically evaluate a range of existing methods to generate images from diffusion models and study new extensions to assess their benefit for data augmentation. Personalizing diffusion models towards the target data outperforms simpler prompting strategies. However, using the pre-training data of the diffusion model alone, via a simple nearest-neighbor retrieval procedure, leads to even stronger downstream performance. Our study explores the potential of diffusion models in generating new training data, and surprisingly finds that these sophisticated models are not yet able to beat a simple and strong image retrieval baseline on simple downstream vision tasks.

In the realm of tensor optimization, low-rank tensor decomposition, particularly Tucker decomposition, stands as a pivotal technique for reducing the number of parameters and for saving storage. We embark on an exploration of Tucker tensor varieties -- the set of tensors with bounded Tucker rank -- in which the geometry is notably more intricate than the well-explored geometry of matrix varieties. We give an explicit parametrization of the tangent cone of Tucker tensor varieties and leverage its geometry to develop provable gradient-related line-search methods for optimization on Tucker tensor varieties. The search directions are computed from approximate projections of antigradient onto the tangent cone, which circumvents the calculation of intractable metric projections. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work concerning geometry and optimization on Tucker tensor varieties. In practice, low-rank tensor optimization suffers from the difficulty of choosing a reliable rank parameter. To this end, we incorporate the established geometry and propose a Tucker rank-adaptive method that is capable of identifying an appropriate rank during iterations while the convergence is also guaranteed. Numerical experiments on tensor completion with synthetic and real-world datasets reveal that the proposed methods are in favor of recovering performance over other state-of-the-art methods. Moreover, the rank-adaptive method performs the best across various rank parameter selections and is indeed able to find an appropriate rank.

High-dimensional, higher-order tensor data are gaining prominence in a variety of fields, including but not limited to computer vision and network analysis. Tensor factor models, induced from noisy versions of tensor decomposition or factorization, are natural potent instruments to study a collection of tensor-variate objects that may be dependent or independent. However, it is still in the early stage of developing statistical inferential theories for estimation of various low-rank structures, which are customary to play the role of signals of tensor factor models. In this paper, starting from tensor matricization, we aim to ``decode" estimation of a higher-order tensor factor model in the sense that, we recast it into mode-wise traditional high-dimensional vector/fiber factor models so as to deploy the conventional estimation of principle components analysis (PCA). Demonstrated by the Tucker tensor factor model (TuTFaM), which is induced from most popular Tucker decomposition, we summarize that estimations on signal components are essentially mode-wise PCA techniques, and the involvement of projection and iteration will enhance the signal-to-noise ratio to various extend. We establish the inferential theory of the proposed estimations and conduct rich simulation experiments under TuTFaM, and illustrate how the proposed estimations can work in tensor reconstruction, clustering for video and economic datasets, respectively.

Prediction models are used amongst others to inform medical decisions on interventions. Typically, individuals with high risks of adverse outcomes are advised to undergo an intervention while those at low risk are advised to refrain from it. Standard prediction models do not always provide risks that are relevant to inform such decisions: e.g., an individual may be estimated to be at low risk because similar individuals in the past received an intervention which lowered their risk. Therefore, prediction models supporting decisions should target risks belonging to defined intervention strategies. Previous works on prediction under interventions assumed that the prediction model was used only at one time point to make an intervention decision. In clinical practice, intervention decisions are rarely made only once: they might be repeated, deferred and re-evaluated. This requires estimated risks under interventions that can be reconsidered at several potential decision moments. In the current work, we highlight key considerations for formulating estimands in sequential prediction under interventions that can inform such intervention decisions. We illustrate these considerations by giving examples of estimands for a case study about choosing between vaginal delivery and cesarean section for women giving birth. Our formalization of prediction tasks in a sequential, causal, and estimand context provides guidance for future studies to ensure that the right question is answered and appropriate causal estimation approaches are chosen to develop sequential prediction models that can inform intervention decisions.

Treatment-covariate interaction tests are commonly applied by researchers to examine whether the treatment effect varies across patient subgroups defined by baseline characteristics. The objective of this study is to explore treatment-covariate interaction tests involving covariate-adaptive randomization. Without assuming a parametric data generation model, we investigate usual interaction tests and observe that they tend to be conservative: specifically, their limiting rejection probabilities under the null hypothesis do not exceed the nominal level and are typically strictly lower than it. To address this problem, we propose modifications to the usual tests to obtain corresponding exact tests. Moreover, we introduce a novel class of stratified-adjusted interaction tests that are simple, broadly applicable, and more powerful than the usual and modified tests. Our findings are relevant to two types of interaction tests: one involving stratification covariates and the other involving additional covariates that are not used for randomization.

Regression with random data objects is becoming increasingly common in modern data analysis. Unfortunately, like the traditional regression setting with Euclidean data, random response regression is not immune to the trouble caused by unusual observations. A metric Cook's distance extending the classical Cook's distances of Cook (1977) to general metric-valued response objects is proposed. The performance of the metric Cook's distance in both Euclidean and non-Euclidean response regression with Euclidean predictors is demonstrated in an extensive experimental study. A real data analysis of county-level COVID-19 transmission in the United States also illustrates the usefulness of this method in practice.

Threshold selection is a fundamental problem in any threshold-based extreme value analysis. While models are asymptotically motivated, selecting an appropriate threshold for finite samples can be difficult through standard methods. Inference can also be highly sensitive to the choice of threshold. Too low a threshold choice leads to bias in the fit of the extreme value model, while too high a choice leads to unnecessary additional uncertainty in the estimation of model parameters. In this paper, we develop a novel methodology for automated threshold selection that directly tackles this bias-variance trade-off. We also develop a method to account for the uncertainty in this threshold choice and propagate this uncertainty through to high quantile inference. Through a simulation study, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our method for threshold selection and subsequent extreme quantile estimation. We apply our method to the well-known, troublesome example of the River Nidd dataset.

We study a multi-server queueing system with a periodic arrival rate and customers whose joining decision is based on their patience and a delay proxy. Specifically, each customer has a patience level sampled from a common distribution. Upon arrival, they receive an estimate of their delay before joining service and then join the system only if this delay is not more than their patience, otherwise they balk. The main objective is to estimate the parameters pertaining to the arrival rate and patience distribution. Here the complication factor is that this inference should be performed based on the observed process only, i.e., balking customers remain unobserved. We set up a likelihood function of the state dependent effective arrival process (i.e., corresponding to the customers who join), establish strong consistency of the MLE, and derive the asymptotic distribution of the estimation error. Due to the intrinsic non-stationarity of the Poisson arrival process, the proof techniques used in previous work become inapplicable. The novelty of the proving mechanism in this paper lies in the procedure of constructing i.i.d. objects from dependent samples by decomposing the sample path into i.i.d.\ regeneration cycles. The feasibility of the MLE-approach is discussed via a sequence of numerical experiments, for multiple choices of functions which provide delay estimates. In particular, it is observed that the arrival rate is best estimated at high service capacities, and the patience distribution is best estimated at lower service capacities.

Linear regression and classification methods with repeated functional data are considered. For each statistical unit in the sample, a real-valued parameter is observed over time under different conditions. Two regression methods based on fusion penalties are presented. The first one is a generalization of the variable fusion methodology based on the 1-nearest neighbor. The second one, called group fusion lasso, assumes some grouping structure of conditions and allows for homogeneity among the regression coefficient functions within groups. A finite sample numerical simulation and an application on EEG data are presented.

In large-scale systems there are fundamental challenges when centralised techniques are used for task allocation. The number of interactions is limited by resource constraints such as on computation, storage, and network communication. We can increase scalability by implementing the system as a distributed task-allocation system, sharing tasks across many agents. However, this also increases the resource cost of communications and synchronisation, and is difficult to scale. In this paper we present four algorithms to solve these problems. The combination of these algorithms enable each agent to improve their task allocation strategy through reinforcement learning, while changing how much they explore the system in response to how optimal they believe their current strategy is, given their past experience. We focus on distributed agent systems where the agents' behaviours are constrained by resource usage limits, limiting agents to local rather than system-wide knowledge. We evaluate these algorithms in a simulated environment where agents are given a task composed of multiple subtasks that must be allocated to other agents with differing capabilities, to then carry out those tasks. We also simulate real-life system effects such as networking instability. Our solution is shown to solve the task allocation problem to 6.7% of the theoretical optimal within the system configurations considered. It provides 5x better performance recovery over no-knowledge retention approaches when system connectivity is impacted, and is tested against systems up to 100 agents with less than a 9% impact on the algorithms' performance.