Substandard and falsified pharmaceuticals, prevalent in low- and middle-income countries, substantially increase levels of morbidity, mortality and drug resistance. Regulatory agencies combat this problem using post-market surveillance by collecting and testing samples where consumers purchase products. Existing analysis tools for post-market surveillance data focus attention on the locations of positive samples. This paper looks to expand such analysis through underutilized supply-chain information to provide inference on sources of substandard and falsified products. We first establish the presence of unidentifiability issues when integrating this supply-chain information with surveillance data. We then develop a Bayesian methodology for evaluating substandard and falsified sources that extracts utility from supply-chain information and mitigates unidentifiability while accounting for multiple sources of uncertainty. Using de-identified surveillance data, we show the proposed methodology to be effective in providing valuable inference.
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Nowadays, various memory-hungry applications like machine learning algorithms are knocking "the memory wall". Toward this, emerging memories featuring computational capacity are foreseen as a promising solution that performs data process inside the memory itself, so-called computation-in-memory, while eliminating the need for costly data movement. Recent research shows that utilizing the custom extension of RISC-V instruction set architecture to support computation-in-memory operations is effective. To evaluate the applicability of such methods further, this work enhances the standard GNU binary utilities to generate RISC-V executables with Logic-in-Memory (LiM) operations and develop a new gem5 simulation environment, which simulates the entire system (CPU, peripherals, etc.) in a cycle-accurate manner together with a user-defined LiM module integrated into the system. This work provides a modular testbed for the research community to evaluate potential LiM solutions and co-designs between hardware and software.
Symmetry is a fundamental tool in the exploration of a broad range of complex systems. In machine learning symmetry has been explored in both models and data. In this paper we seek to connect the symmetries arising from the architecture of a family of models with the symmetries of that family's internal representation of data. We do this by calculating a set of fundamental symmetry groups, which we call the intertwiner groups of the model. We connect intertwiner groups to a model's internal representations of data through a range of experiments that probe similarities between hidden states across models with the same architecture. Our work suggests that the symmetries of a network are propagated into the symmetries in that network's representation of data, providing us with a better understanding of how architecture affects the learning and prediction process. Finally, we speculate that for ReLU networks, the intertwiner groups may provide a justification for the common practice of concentrating model interpretability exploration on the activation basis in hidden layers rather than arbitrary linear combinations thereof.
How can citizens moderate hate, toxicity, and extremism in online discourse? We analyze a large corpus of more than 130,000 discussions on German Twitter over the turbulent four years marked by the migrant crisis and political upheavals. With a help of human annotators, language models, machine learning classifiers, and longitudinal statistical analyses, we discern the dynamics of different dimensions of discourse. We find that expressing simple opinions, not necessarily supported by facts but also without insults, relates to the least hate, toxicity, and extremity of speech and speakers in subsequent discussions. Sarcasm also helps in achieving those outcomes, in particular in the presence of organized extreme groups. More constructive comments such as providing facts or exposing contradictions can backfire and attract more extremity. Mentioning either outgroups or ingroups is typically related to a deterioration of discourse in the long run. A pronounced emotional tone, either negative such as anger or fear, or positive such as enthusiasm and pride, also leads to worse outcomes. Going beyond one-shot analyses on smaller samples of discourse, our findings have implications for the successful management of online commons through collective civic moderation.
Tyler's and Maronna's M-estimators, as well as their regularized variants, are popular robust methods to estimate the scatter or covariance matrix of a multivariate distribution. In this work, we study the non-asymptotic behavior of these estimators, for data sampled from a distribution that satisfies one of the following properties: 1) independent sub-Gaussian entries, up to a linear transformation; 2) log-concave distributions; 3) distributions satisfying a convex concentration property. Our main contribution is the derivation of tight non-asymptotic concentration bounds of these M-estimators around a suitably scaled version of the data sample covariance matrix. Prior to our work, non-asymptotic bounds were derived only for Elliptical and Gaussian distributions. Our proof uses a variety of tools from non asymptotic random matrix theory and high dimensional geometry. Finally, we illustrate the utility of our results on two examples of practical interest: sparse covariance and sparse precision matrix estimation.
Detecting sets of relevant patterns from a given dataset is an important challenge in data mining. The relevance of a pattern, also called utility in the literature, is a subjective measure and can be actually assessed from very different points of view. Rule-based languages like Answer Set Programming (ASP) seem well suited for specifying user-provided criteria to assess pattern utility in a form of constraints; moreover, declarativity of ASP allows for a very easy switch between several criteria in order to analyze the dataset from different points of view. In this paper, we make steps toward extending the notion of High Utility Pattern Mining (HUPM); in particular we introduce a new framework that allows for new classes of utility criteria not considered in the previous literature. We also show how recent extensions of ASP with external functions can support a fast and effective encoding and testing of the new framework. To demonstrate the potential of the proposed framework, we exploit it as a building block for the definition of an innovative method for predicting ICU admission for COVID-19 patients. Finally, an extensive experimental activity demonstrates both from a quantitative and a qualitative point of view the effectiveness of the proposed approach. Under consideration in Theory and Practice of Logic Programming (TPLP)
The imsets of \citet{studeny2006probabilistic} are an algebraic method for representing conditional independence models. They have many attractive properties when applied to such models, and they are particularly nice for working with directed acyclic graph (DAG) models. In particular, the `standard' imset for a DAG is in one-to-one correspondence with the independences it induces, and hence is a label for its Markov equivalence class. We first present a proposed extension to standard imsets for maximal ancestral graph (MAG) models, using the parameterizing set representation of \citet{hu2020faster}. We show that for many such graphs our proposed imset is \emph{perfectly Markovian} with respect to the graph, including \emph{simple} MAGs, as well as for a large class of purely bidirected models. Thus providing a scoring criteria by measuring the discrepancy for a list of independences that define the model; this gives an alternative to the usual BIC score that is much easier to compute. We also show that, of independence models that do represent the MAG, the one we give is the simplest possible, in a manner we make precise. Unfortunately, for some graphs the representation does not represent all the independences in the model, and in certain cases does not represent any at all. For these general MAGs, we refine the reduced ordered local Markov property \citep{richardlocalmarkov} by a novel graphical tool called \emph{power DAGs}, and this results in an imset that induces the correct model and which, under a mild condition, can be constructed in polynomial time.
In recent years, industry leaders and researchers have proposed to use technical provenance standards to address visual misinformation spread through digitally altered media. By adding immutable and secure provenance information such as authorship and edit date to media metadata, social media users could potentially better assess the validity of the media they encounter. However, it is unclear how end users would respond to provenance information, or how to best design provenance indicators to be understandable to laypeople. We conducted an online experiment with 595 participants from the US and UK to investigate how provenance information altered users' accuracy perceptions and trust in visual content shared on social media. We found that provenance information often lowered trust and caused users to doubt deceptive media, particularly when it revealed that the media was composited. We additionally tested conditions where the provenance information itself was shown to be incomplete or invalid, and found that these states have a significant impact on participants' accuracy perceptions and trust in media, leading them, in some cases, to disbelieve honest media. Our findings show that provenance, although enlightening, is still not a concept well-understood by users, who confuse media credibility with the orthogonal (albeit related) concept of provenance credibility. We discuss how design choices may contribute to provenance (mis)understanding, and conclude with implications for usable provenance systems, including clearer interfaces and user education.
In contrast to batch learning where all training data is available at once, continual learning represents a family of methods that accumulate knowledge and learn continuously with data available in sequential order. Similar to the human learning process with the ability of learning, fusing, and accumulating new knowledge coming at different time steps, continual learning is considered to have high practical significance. Hence, continual learning has been studied in various artificial intelligence tasks. In this paper, we present a comprehensive review of the recent progress of continual learning in computer vision. In particular, the works are grouped by their representative techniques, including regularization, knowledge distillation, memory, generative replay, parameter isolation, and a combination of the above techniques. For each category of these techniques, both its characteristics and applications in computer vision are presented. At the end of this overview, several subareas, where continuous knowledge accumulation is potentially helpful while continual learning has not been well studied, are discussed.
This paper focuses on the expected difference in borrower's repayment when there is a change in the lender's credit decisions. Classical estimators overlook the confounding effects and hence the estimation error can be magnificent. As such, we propose another approach to construct the estimators such that the error can be greatly reduced. The proposed estimators are shown to be unbiased, consistent, and robust through a combination of theoretical analysis and numerical testing. Moreover, we compare the power of estimating the causal quantities between the classical estimators and the proposed estimators. The comparison is tested across a wide range of models, including linear regression models, tree-based models, and neural network-based models, under different simulated datasets that exhibit different levels of causality, different degrees of nonlinearity, and different distributional properties. Most importantly, we apply our approaches to a large observational dataset provided by a global technology firm that operates in both the e-commerce and the lending business. We find that the relative reduction of estimation error is strikingly substantial if the causal effects are accounted for correctly.
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