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The prevalence and importance of algorithmic two-sided marketplaces has drawn attention to the issue of fairness in such settings. Algorithmic decisions are used in assigning students to schools, users to advertisers, and applicants to job interviews. These decisions should heed the preferences of individuals, and simultaneously be fair with respect to their merits (synonymous with fit, future performance, or need). Merits conditioned on observable features are always \emph{uncertain}, a fact that is exacerbated by the widespread use of machine learning algorithms to infer merit from the observables. As our key contribution, we carefully axiomatize a notion of individual fairness in the two-sided marketplace setting which respects the uncertainty in the merits; indeed, it simultaneously recognizes uncertainty as the primary potential cause of unfairness and an approach to address it. We design a linear programming framework to find fair utility-maximizing distributions over allocations, and we show that the linear program is robust to perturbations in the estimated parameters of the uncertain merit distributions, a key property in combining the approach with machine learning techniques.

Multiple measures, such as WEAT or MAC, attempt to quantify the magnitude of bias present in word embeddings in terms of a single-number metric. However, such metrics and the related statistical significance calculations rely on treating pre-averaged data as individual data points and employing bootstrapping techniques with low sample sizes. We show that similar results can be easily obtained using such methods even if the data are generated by a null model lacking the intended bias. Consequently, we argue that this approach generates false confidence. To address this issue, we propose a Bayesian alternative: hierarchical Bayesian modeling, which enables a more uncertainty-sensitive inspection of bias in word embeddings at different levels of granularity. To showcase our method, we apply it to Religion, Gender, and Race word lists from the original research, together with our control neutral word lists. We deploy the method using Google, Glove, and Reddit embeddings. Further, we utilize our approach to evaluate a debiasing technique applied to Reddit word embedding. Our findings reveal a more complex landscape than suggested by the proponents of single-number metrics. The datasets and source code for the paper are publicly available.

Learning paradigms based purely on offline data as well as those based solely on sequential online learning have been well-studied in the literature. In this paper, we consider combining offline data with online learning, an area less studied but of obvious practical importance. We consider the stochastic $K$-armed bandit problem, where our goal is to identify the arm with the highest mean in the presence of relevant offline data, with confidence $1-\delta$. We conduct a lower bound analysis on policies that provide such $1-\delta$ probabilistic correctness guarantees. We develop algorithms that match the lower bound on sample complexity when $\delta$ is small. Our algorithms are computationally efficient with an average per-sample acquisition cost of $\tilde{O}(K)$, and rely on a careful characterization of the optimality conditions of the lower bound problem.

Given subsets of uncertain values, we study the problem of identifying the subset of minimum total value (sum of the uncertain values) by querying as few values as possible. This set selection problem falls into the field of explorable uncertainty and is of intrinsic importance therein as it implies strong adversarial lower bounds for a wide range of interesting combinatorial problems such as knapsack and matchings. We consider a stochastic problem variant and give algorithms that, in expectation, improve upon these adversarial lower bounds. The key to our results is to prove a strong structural connection to a seemingly unrelated covering problem with uncertainty in the constraints via a linear programming formulation. We exploit this connection to derive an algorithmic framework that can be used to solve both problems under uncertainty, obtaining nearly tight bounds on the competitive ratio. This is the first non-trivial stochastic result concerning the sum of unknown values without further structure known for the set. With our novel methods, we lay the foundations for solving more general problems in the area of explorable uncertainty.

This paper presents a robust version of the stratified sampling method when multiple uncertain input models are considered for stochastic simulation. Various variance reduction techniques have demonstrated their superior performance in accelerating simulation processes. Nevertheless, they often use a single input model and further assume that the input model is exactly known and fixed. We consider more general cases in which it is necessary to assess a simulation's response to a variety of input models, such as when evaluating the reliability of wind turbines under nonstationary wind conditions or the operation of a service system when the distribution of customer inter-arrival time is heterogeneous at different times. Moreover, the estimation variance may be considerably impacted by uncertainty in input models. To address such nonstationary and uncertain input models, we offer a distributionally robust (DR) stratified sampling approach with the goal of minimizing the maximum of worst-case estimator variances among plausible but uncertain input models. Specifically, we devise a bi-level optimization framework for formulating DR stochastic problems with different ambiguity set designs, based on the $L_2$-norm, 1-Wasserstein distance, parametric family of distributions, and distribution moments. In order to cope with the non-convexity of objective function, we present a solution approach that uses Bayesian optimization. Numerical experiments and the wind turbine case study demonstrate the robustness of the proposed approach.

Recently proposed Generalized Time-domain Velocity Vector (GTVV) is a generalization of relative room impulse response in spherical harmonic (aka Ambisonic) domain that allows for blind estimation of early-echo parameters: the directions and relative delays of individual reflections. However, the derived closed-form expression of GTVV mandates few assumptions to hold, most important being that the impulse response of the reference signal needs to be a minimum-phase filter. In practice, the reference is obtained by spatial filtering towards the Direction-of-Arrival of the source, and the aforementioned condition is bounded by the performance of the applied beamformer (and thus, by the Ambisonic array order). In the present work, we suggest to circumvent this problem by properly modelling the GTVV time series, which permits not only to relax the initial assumptions, but also to extract the information therein is a more consistent and efficient manner, entering the realm of blind system identification. Experiments using measured room impulse responses confirm the effectiveness of the proposed approach.

Conformalized Quantile Regression (CQR) is a recently proposed method for constructing prediction intervals for a response $Y$ given covariates $X$, without making distributional assumptions. However, as we demonstrate empirically, existing constructions of CQR can be ineffective for problems where the quantile regressors perform better in certain parts of the feature space than others. The reason is that the prediction intervals of CQR do not distinguish between two forms of uncertainty: first, the variability of the conditional distribution of $Y$ given $X$ (i.e., aleatoric uncertainty), and second, our uncertainty in estimating this conditional distribution (i.e., epistemic uncertainty). This can lead to uneven coverage, with intervals that are overly wide (or overly narrow) in regions where epistemic uncertainty is low (or high). To address this, we propose a new variant of the CQR methodology, Uncertainty-Aware CQR (UACQR), that explicitly separates these two sources of uncertainty to adjust quantile regressors differentially across the feature space. Compared to CQR, our methods enjoy the same distribution-free theoretical guarantees for coverage properties, while demonstrating in our experiments stronger conditional coverage in simulated settings and tighter intervals on a range of real-world data sets.

Training multimodal networks requires a vast amount of data due to their larger parameter space compared to unimodal networks. Active learning is a widely used technique for reducing data annotation costs by selecting only those samples that could contribute to improving model performance. However, current active learning strategies are mostly designed for unimodal tasks, and when applied to multimodal data, they often result in biased sample selection from the dominant modality. This unfairness hinders balanced multimodal learning, which is crucial for achieving optimal performance. To address this issue, we propose three guidelines for designing a more balanced multimodal active learning strategy. Following these guidelines, a novel approach is proposed to achieve more fair data selection by modulating the gradient embedding with the dominance degree among modalities. Our studies demonstrate that the proposed method achieves more balanced multimodal learning by avoiding greedy sample selection from the dominant modality. Our approach outperforms existing active learning strategies on a variety of multimodal classification tasks. Overall, our work highlights the importance of balancing sample selection in multimodal active learning and provides a practical solution for achieving more balanced active learning for multimodal classification.

Ensembles over neural network weights trained from different random initialization, known as deep ensembles, achieve state-of-the-art accuracy and calibration. The recently introduced batch ensembles provide a drop-in replacement that is more parameter efficient. In this paper, we design ensembles not only over weights, but over hyperparameters to improve the state of the art in both settings. For best performance independent of budget, we propose hyper-deep ensembles, a simple procedure that involves a random search over different hyperparameters, themselves stratified across multiple random initializations. Its strong performance highlights the benefit of combining models with both weight and hyperparameter diversity. We further propose a parameter efficient version, hyper-batch ensembles, which builds on the layer structure of batch ensembles and self-tuning networks. The computational and memory costs of our method are notably lower than typical ensembles. On image classification tasks, with MLP, LeNet, and Wide ResNet 28-10 architectures, our methodology improves upon both deep and batch ensembles.

The notion of uncertainty is of major importance in machine learning and constitutes a key element of machine learning methodology. In line with the statistical tradition, uncertainty has long been perceived as almost synonymous with standard probability and probabilistic predictions. Yet, due to the steadily increasing relevance of machine learning for practical applications and related issues such as safety requirements, new problems and challenges have recently been identified by machine learning scholars, and these problems may call for new methodological developments. In particular, this includes the importance of distinguishing between (at least) two different types of uncertainty, often refereed to as aleatoric and epistemic. In this paper, we provide an introduction to the topic of uncertainty in machine learning as well as an overview of hitherto attempts at handling uncertainty in general and formalizing this distinction in particular.