Investors are interested in predicting future success of startup companies, preferably using publicly available data which can be gathered using free online sources. Using public-only data has been shown to work, but there is still much room for improvement. Two of the best performing prediction experiments use 17 and 49 features respectively, mostly numeric and categorical in nature. In this paper, we significantly expand and diversify both the sources and the number of features (to 171) to achieve better prediction. Data collected from Crunchbase, the Google Search API, and Twitter (now X) are used to predict whether a company will raise a round of funding within a fixed time horizon. Much of the new features are textual and the Twitter subset include linguistic metrics such as measures of passive voice and parts-of-speech. A total of ten machine learning models are also evaluated for best performance. The adaptable model can be used to predict funding 1-5 years into the future, with a variable cutoff threshold to favor either precision or recall. Prediction with comparable assumptions generally achieves F scores above 0.730 which outperforms previous attempts in the literature (0.531), and does so with fewer examples. Furthermore, we find that the vast majority of the performance impact comes from the top 18 of 171 features which are mostly generic company observations, including the best performing individual feature which is the free-form text description of the company.
Camera localization methods based on retrieval, local feature matching, and 3D structure-based pose estimation are accurate but require high storage, are slow, and are not privacy-preserving. A method based on scene landmark detection (SLD) was recently proposed to address these limitations. It involves training a convolutional neural network (CNN) to detect a few predetermined, salient, scene-specific 3D points or landmarks and computing camera pose from the associated 2D-3D correspondences. Although SLD outperformed existing learning-based approaches, it was notably less accurate than 3D structure-based methods. In this paper, we show that the accuracy gap was due to insufficient model capacity and noisy labels during training. To mitigate the capacity issue, we propose to split the landmarks into subgroups and train a separate network for each subgroup. To generate better training labels, we propose using dense reconstructions to estimate visibility of scene landmarks. Finally, we present a compact architecture to improve memory efficiency. Accuracy wise, our approach is on par with state of the art structure based methods on the INDOOR-6 dataset but runs significantly faster and uses less storage. Code and models can be found at //github.com/microsoft/SceneLandmarkLocalization.
QA models are faced with complex and open-ended contextual reasoning problems, but can often learn well-performing solution heuristics by exploiting dataset-specific patterns in their training data. These patterns, or "dataset artifacts", reduce the model's ability to generalize to real-world QA problems. Utilizing an ElectraSmallDiscriminator model trained for QA, we analyze the impacts and incidence of dataset artifacts using an adversarial challenge set designed to confuse models reliant on artifacts for prediction. Extending existing work on methods for mitigating artifact impacts, we propose cartographic inoculation, a novel method that fine-tunes models on an optimized subset of the challenge data to reduce model reliance on dataset artifacts. We show that by selectively fine-tuning a model on ambiguous adversarial examples from a challenge set, significant performance improvements can be made on the full challenge dataset with minimal loss of model generalizability to other challenging environments and QA datasets.
With the recent advancement of Large Language Models (LLMs), generating functionally correct code has become less complicated for a wide array of developers. While using LLMs has sped up the functional development process, it poses a heavy risk to code security. Code generation with proper security measures using LLM is a significantly more challenging task than functional code generation. Security measures may include adding a pair of lines of code with the original code, consisting of null pointer checking or prepared statements for SQL injection prevention. Currently, available code repair LLMs generate code repair by supervised fine-tuning, where the model looks at cross-entropy loss. However, the original and repaired codes are mostly similar in functionality and syntactically, except for a few (1-2) lines, which act as security measures. This imbalance between the lines needed for security measures and the functional code enforces the supervised fine-tuned model to prioritize generating functional code without adding proper security measures, which also benefits the model by resulting in minimal loss. Therefore, in this work, for security hardening and strengthening of generated code from LLMs, we propose a reinforcement learning-based method for program-specific repair with the combination of semantic and syntactic reward mechanisms that focus heavily on adding security and functional measures in the code, respectively.
Imitation learning, which learns agent policy by mimicking expert demonstration, has shown promising results in many applications such as medical treatment regimes and self-driving vehicles. However, it remains a difficult task to interpret control policies learned by the agent. Difficulties mainly come from two aspects: 1) agents in imitation learning are usually implemented as deep neural networks, which are black-box models and lack interpretability; 2) the latent causal mechanism behind agents' decisions may vary along the trajectory, rather than staying static throughout time steps. To increase transparency and offer better interpretability of the neural agent, we propose to expose its captured knowledge in the form of a directed acyclic causal graph, with nodes being action and state variables and edges denoting the causal relations behind predictions. Furthermore, we design this causal discovery process to be state-dependent, enabling it to model the dynamics in latent causal graphs. Concretely, we conduct causal discovery from the perspective of Granger causality and propose a self-explainable imitation learning framework, {\method}. The proposed framework is composed of three parts: a dynamic causal discovery module, a causality encoding module, and a prediction module, and is trained in an end-to-end manner. After the model is learned, we can obtain causal relations among states and action variables behind its decisions, exposing policies learned by it. Experimental results on both synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed {\method} in learning the dynamic causal graphs for understanding the decision-making of imitation learning meanwhile maintaining high prediction accuracy.
Sequential neural posterior estimation (SNPE) techniques have been recently proposed for dealing with simulation-based models with intractable likelihoods. They are devoted to learning the posterior from adaptively proposed simulations using neural network-based conditional density estimators. As a SNPE technique, the automatic posterior transformation (APT) method proposed by Greenberg et al. (2019) performs notably and scales to high dimensional data. However, the APT method bears the computation of an expectation of the logarithm of an intractable normalizing constant, i.e., a nested expectation. Although atomic APT was proposed to solve this by discretizing the normalizing constant, it remains challenging to analyze the convergence of learning. In this paper, we propose a nested APT method to estimate the involved nested expectation instead. This facilitates establishing the convergence analysis. Since the nested estimators for the loss function and its gradient are biased, we make use of unbiased multi-level Monte Carlo (MLMC) estimators for debiasing. To further reduce the excessive variance of the unbiased estimators, this paper also develops some truncated MLMC estimators by taking account of the trade-off between the bias and the average cost. Numerical experiments for approximating complex posteriors with multimodal in moderate dimensions are provided.
It is unclear how to restructure ownership when an asset is privately held, and there is uncertainty about the owners' subjective valuations. When ownership is divided equally between two owners, a commonly used mechanism is called a BMBY mechanism. This mechanism works as follows: each owner can initiate a BMBY by naming her price. Once an owner declares a price, the other chooses to sell his holdings or buy the shares of the initiator at the given price. This mechanism is simple and tractable; however, it does not elicit actual owner valuations, does not guarantee an efficient allocation, and, most importantly, is limited to an equal partnership of two owners. In this paper, we extend this rationale to a multi-owner setting. Our proposed mechanism elicits owner valuations truthfully. Additionally, our proposed mechanism exhibits several desirable traits: it is easy to implement, budget balanced, robust to collusion (weakly group strategyproof), individually rational, and ex-post efficient.
Graphs are important data representations for describing objects and their relationships, which appear in a wide diversity of real-world scenarios. As one of a critical problem in this area, graph generation considers learning the distributions of given graphs and generating more novel graphs. Owing to their wide range of applications, generative models for graphs, which have a rich history, however, are traditionally hand-crafted and only capable of modeling a few statistical properties of graphs. Recent advances in deep generative models for graph generation is an important step towards improving the fidelity of generated graphs and paves the way for new kinds of applications. This article provides an extensive overview of the literature in the field of deep generative models for graph generation. Firstly, the formal definition of deep generative models for the graph generation and the preliminary knowledge are provided. Secondly, taxonomies of deep generative models for both unconditional and conditional graph generation are proposed respectively; the existing works of each are compared and analyzed. After that, an overview of the evaluation metrics in this specific domain is provided. Finally, the applications that deep graph generation enables are summarized and five promising future research directions are highlighted.
Sequential recommendation aims to leverage users' historical behaviors to predict their next interaction. Existing works have not yet addressed two main challenges in sequential recommendation. First, user behaviors in their rich historical sequences are often implicit and noisy preference signals, they cannot sufficiently reflect users' actual preferences. In addition, users' dynamic preferences often change rapidly over time, and hence it is difficult to capture user patterns in their historical sequences. In this work, we propose a graph neural network model called SURGE (short for SeqUential Recommendation with Graph neural nEtworks) to address these two issues. Specifically, SURGE integrates different types of preferences in long-term user behaviors into clusters in the graph by re-constructing loose item sequences into tight item-item interest graphs based on metric learning. This helps explicitly distinguish users' core interests, by forming dense clusters in the interest graph. Then, we perform cluster-aware and query-aware graph convolutional propagation and graph pooling on the constructed graph. It dynamically fuses and extracts users' current activated core interests from noisy user behavior sequences. We conduct extensive experiments on both public and proprietary industrial datasets. Experimental results demonstrate significant performance gains of our proposed method compared to state-of-the-art methods. Further studies on sequence length confirm that our method can model long behavioral sequences effectively and efficiently.
Aspect based sentiment analysis (ABSA) can provide more detailed information than general sentiment analysis, because it aims to predict the sentiment polarities of the given aspects or entities in text. We summarize previous approaches into two subtasks: aspect-category sentiment analysis (ACSA) and aspect-term sentiment analysis (ATSA). Most previous approaches employ long short-term memory and attention mechanisms to predict the sentiment polarity of the concerned targets, which are often complicated and need more training time. We propose a model based on convolutional neural networks and gating mechanisms, which is more accurate and efficient. First, the novel Gated Tanh-ReLU Units can selectively output the sentiment features according to the given aspect or entity. The architecture is much simpler than attention layer used in the existing models. Second, the computations of our model could be easily parallelized during training, because convolutional layers do not have time dependency as in LSTM layers, and gating units also work independently. The experiments on SemEval datasets demonstrate the efficiency and effectiveness of our models.
Deep neural networks (DNNs) have been found to be vulnerable to adversarial examples resulting from adding small-magnitude perturbations to inputs. Such adversarial examples can mislead DNNs to produce adversary-selected results. Different attack strategies have been proposed to generate adversarial examples, but how to produce them with high perceptual quality and more efficiently requires more research efforts. In this paper, we propose AdvGAN to generate adversarial examples with generative adversarial networks (GANs), which can learn and approximate the distribution of original instances. For AdvGAN, once the generator is trained, it can generate adversarial perturbations efficiently for any instance, so as to potentially accelerate adversarial training as defenses. We apply AdvGAN in both semi-whitebox and black-box attack settings. In semi-whitebox attacks, there is no need to access the original target model after the generator is trained, in contrast to traditional white-box attacks. In black-box attacks, we dynamically train a distilled model for the black-box model and optimize the generator accordingly. Adversarial examples generated by AdvGAN on different target models have high attack success rate under state-of-the-art defenses compared to other attacks. Our attack has placed the first with 92.76% accuracy on a public MNIST black-box attack challenge.