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Joint models for longitudinal and time-to-event data are often employed to calculate dynamic individualized predictions used in numerous applications of precision medicine. Two components of joint models that influence the accuracy of these predictions are the shape of the longitudinal trajectories and the functional form linking the longitudinal outcome history to the hazard of the event. Finding a single well-specified model that produces accurate predictions for all subjects and follow-up times can be challenging, especially when considering multiple longitudinal outcomes. In this work, we use the concept of super learning and avoid selecting a single model. In particular, we specify a weighted combination of the dynamic predictions calculated from a library of joint models with different specifications. The weights are selected to optimize a predictive accuracy metric using V-fold cross-validation. We use as predictive accuracy measures the expected quadratic prediction error and the expected predictive cross-entropy. In a simulation study, we found that the super learning approach produces results very similar to the Oracle model, which was the model with the best performance in the test datasets. All proposed methodology is implemented in the freely available R package JMbayes2.

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ACM/IEEE第23屆模型驅動工程語言和系統國際會議,是模型驅動軟件和系統工程的首要會議系列,由ACM-SIGSOFT和IEEE-TCSE支持組織。自1998年以來,模型涵蓋了建模的各個方面,從語言和方法到工具和應用程序。模特的參加者來自不同的背景,包括研究人員、學者、工程師和工業專業人士。MODELS 2019是一個論壇,參與者可以圍繞建模和模型驅動的軟件和系統交流前沿研究成果和創新實踐經驗。今年的版本將為建模社區提供進一步推進建模基礎的機會,并在網絡物理系統、嵌入式系統、社會技術系統、云計算、大數據、機器學習、安全、開源等新興領域提出建模的創新應用以及可持續性。 官網鏈接: · 估計/估計量 · Machine Translation · 可辨認的 · 罰項 ·
2024 年 1 月 23 日

Insufficient modeling of human preferences within the reward model is a major obstacle for leveraging human feedback to improve translation quality. Fortunately, quality estimation (QE), which predicts the quality of a given translation without reference, has achieved impressive alignment with human evaluations in the last two years. In this work, we investigate the potential of employing the QE model as the reward model (the QE-based reward model) to predict human preferences for feedback training. We first identify the overoptimization problem during QE-based feedback training, manifested as an increase in reward while translation quality declines. We examine the problem and argue that the vulnerability of the QE model might lead to high rewards for incorrect translations, resulting in overoptimization and error propagation. To address the problem, we adopt a simple yet effective method that uses heuristic rules to detect the incorrect translations and assigns a penalty term to the QE-based rewards for the detected incorrect translations. Experimental results show that the proposed QE-based feedback training achieves consistent and significant improvements across various settings, further verified through human preference studies. Our subsequent analysis demonstrates the high data efficiency of the proposed QE-based feedback training: the proposed approach using a small amount of monolingual data can outperform systems using larger parallel corpora.

The application of supervised learning techniques in combination with model predictive control (MPC) has recently generated significant interest, particularly in the area of approximate explicit MPC, where function approximators like deep neural networks are used to learn the MPC policy via optimal state-action pairs generated offline. While the aim of approximate explicit MPC is to closely replicate the MPC policy, substituting online optimization with a trained neural network, the performance guarantees that come with solving the online optimization problem are typically lost. This paper considers an alternative strategy, where supervised learning is used to learn the optimal value function offline instead of learning the optimal policy. This can then be used as the cost-to-go function in a myopic MPC with a very short prediction horizon, such that the online computation burden reduces significantly without affecting the controller performance. This approach differs from existing work on value function approximations in the sense that it learns the cost-to-go function by using offline-collected state-value pairs, rather than closed-loop performance data. The cost of generating the state-value pairs used for training is addressed using a sensitivity-based data augmentation scheme.

We consider training decision trees using noisily labeled data, focusing on loss functions that can lead to robust learning algorithms. Our contributions are threefold. First, we offer novel theoretical insights on the robustness of many existing loss functions in the context of decision tree learning. We show that some of the losses belong to a class of what we call conservative losses, and the conservative losses lead to an early stopping behavior during training and noise-tolerant predictions during testing. Second, we introduce a framework for constructing robust loss functions, called distribution losses. These losses apply percentile-based penalties based on an assumed margin distribution, and they naturally allow adapting to different noise rates via a robustness parameter. In particular, we introduce a new loss called the negative exponential loss, which leads to an efficient greedy impurity-reduction learning algorithm. Lastly, our experiments on multiple datasets and noise settings validate our theoretical insight and the effectiveness of our adaptive negative exponential loss.

Large language models (LLMs) with enormous pre-training tokens and parameters emerge diverse abilities, including math reasoning, code generation, and instruction following. These abilities are further enhanced by supervised fine-tuning (SFT). While the open-source community has explored ad-hoc SFT for enhancing individual capabilities, proprietary LLMs exhibit versatility across various skills. Therefore, understanding the facilitation of multiple abilities via SFT is paramount. In this study, we specifically focuses on the interplay of data composition between mathematical reasoning, code generation, and general human-aligning abilities during SFT. We propose four intriguing research questions to explore the association between model performance and various factors including data amount, composition ratio, model size and SFT strategies. Our experiments reveal that distinct capabilities scale differently and larger models generally show superior performance with same amount of data. Mathematical reasoning and code generation consistently improve with increasing data amount, whereas general abilities plateau after roughly a thousand samples. Moreover, we observe data composition appears to enhance various abilities under limited data conditions, yet can lead to performance conflicts when data is plentiful. Our findings also suggest the amount of composition data influences performance more than the composition ratio. In analysis of SFT strategies, we find that sequentially learning multiple skills risks catastrophic forgetting. Our proposed Dual-stage Mixed Fine-tuning (DMT) strategy offers a promising solution to learn multiple abilities with different scaling patterns.

We explore the critical data size in language models, a threshold that marks a fundamental shift from quick memorization to slow generalization. We formalize the phase transition under the grokking configuration into the Data Efficiency Hypothesis and identify data insufficiency, sufficiency, and surplus regimes in language models training dynamics. We develop a grokking configuration to reproduce grokking on simplistic language models stably by rescaling initialization and weight decay. We show that generalization occurs only when language models reach a critical size. We analyze grokking across sample-wise and model-wise, verifying the proposed data efficiency hypothesis. Our experiments reveal smoother phase transitions occurring at the critical dataset size for language datasets. As the model size increases, this critical point also becomes larger, indicating that larger models require more data. Our results deepen the understanding of language model training, offering a novel perspective on the role of data in the learning mechanism of language models.

Designing and generating new data under targeted properties has been attracting various critical applications such as molecule design, image editing and speech synthesis. Traditional hand-crafted approaches heavily rely on expertise experience and intensive human efforts, yet still suffer from the insufficiency of scientific knowledge and low throughput to support effective and efficient data generation. Recently, the advancement of deep learning induces expressive methods that can learn the underlying representation and properties of data. Such capability provides new opportunities in figuring out the mutual relationship between the structural patterns and functional properties of the data and leveraging such relationship to generate structural data given the desired properties. This article provides a systematic review of this promising research area, commonly known as controllable deep data generation. Firstly, the potential challenges are raised and preliminaries are provided. Then the controllable deep data generation is formally defined, a taxonomy on various techniques is proposed and the evaluation metrics in this specific domain are summarized. After that, exciting applications of controllable deep data generation are introduced and existing works are experimentally analyzed and compared. Finally, the promising future directions of controllable deep data generation are highlighted and five potential challenges are identified.

The existence of representative datasets is a prerequisite of many successful artificial intelligence and machine learning models. However, the subsequent application of these models often involves scenarios that are inadequately represented in the data used for training. The reasons for this are manifold and range from time and cost constraints to ethical considerations. As a consequence, the reliable use of these models, especially in safety-critical applications, is a huge challenge. Leveraging additional, already existing sources of knowledge is key to overcome the limitations of purely data-driven approaches, and eventually to increase the generalization capability of these models. Furthermore, predictions that conform with knowledge are crucial for making trustworthy and safe decisions even in underrepresented scenarios. This work provides an overview of existing techniques and methods in the literature that combine data-based models with existing knowledge. The identified approaches are structured according to the categories integration, extraction and conformity. Special attention is given to applications in the field of autonomous driving.

Deep reinforcement learning algorithms can perform poorly in real-world tasks due to the discrepancy between source and target environments. This discrepancy is commonly viewed as the disturbance in transition dynamics. Many existing algorithms learn robust policies by modeling the disturbance and applying it to source environments during training, which usually requires prior knowledge about the disturbance and control of simulators. However, these algorithms can fail in scenarios where the disturbance from target environments is unknown or is intractable to model in simulators. To tackle this problem, we propose a novel model-free actor-critic algorithm -- namely, state-conservative policy optimization (SCPO) -- to learn robust policies without modeling the disturbance in advance. Specifically, SCPO reduces the disturbance in transition dynamics to that in state space and then approximates it by a simple gradient-based regularizer. The appealing features of SCPO include that it is simple to implement and does not require additional knowledge about the disturbance or specially designed simulators. Experiments in several robot control tasks demonstrate that SCPO learns robust policies against the disturbance in transition dynamics.

We propose a new method for event extraction (EE) task based on an imitation learning framework, specifically, inverse reinforcement learning (IRL) via generative adversarial network (GAN). The GAN estimates proper rewards according to the difference between the actions committed by the expert (or ground truth) and the agent among complicated states in the environment. EE task benefits from these dynamic rewards because instances and labels yield to various extents of difficulty and the gains are expected to be diverse -- e.g., an ambiguous but correctly detected trigger or argument should receive high gains -- while the traditional RL models usually neglect such differences and pay equal attention on all instances. Moreover, our experiments also demonstrate that the proposed framework outperforms state-of-the-art methods, without explicit feature engineering.

Object detection typically assumes that training and test data are drawn from an identical distribution, which, however, does not always hold in practice. Such a distribution mismatch will lead to a significant performance drop. In this work, we aim to improve the cross-domain robustness of object detection. We tackle the domain shift on two levels: 1) the image-level shift, such as image style, illumination, etc, and 2) the instance-level shift, such as object appearance, size, etc. We build our approach based on the recent state-of-the-art Faster R-CNN model, and design two domain adaptation components, on image level and instance level, to reduce the domain discrepancy. The two domain adaptation components are based on H-divergence theory, and are implemented by learning a domain classifier in adversarial training manner. The domain classifiers on different levels are further reinforced with a consistency regularization to learn a domain-invariant region proposal network (RPN) in the Faster R-CNN model. We evaluate our newly proposed approach using multiple datasets including Cityscapes, KITTI, SIM10K, etc. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed approach for robust object detection in various domain shift scenarios.

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