A Gaussian process (GP)-based methodology is proposed to emulate complex dynamical computer models (or simulators). The method relies on emulating the short-time numerical flow map of the system, where the flow map is a function that returns the solution of a dynamical system at a certain time point, given initial conditions. In order to predict the model output times series, a single realisation of the emulated flow map (i.e., its posterior distribution) is taken and used to iterate from the initial condition ahead in time. Repeating this procedure with multiple such draws creates a distribution over the time series whose mean and variance serve as the model output prediction and the associated uncertainty, respectively. However, since there is no known method to draw an exact sample from the GP posterior analytically, we approximate the kernel with random Fourier features and generate approximate sample paths. The proposed method is applied to emulate several dynamic nonlinear simulators including the well-known Lorenz and van der Pol models. The results suggest that our approach has a high predictive performance and the associated uncertainty can capture the dynamics of the system accurately. Additionally, our approach has potential for ``embarrassingly" parallel implementations where one can conduct the iterative predictions performed by a realisation on a single computing node.
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Deep learning is also known as hierarchical learning, where the learner _learns_ to represent a complicated target function by decomposing it into a sequence of simpler functions to reduce sample and time complexity. This paper formally analyzes how multi-layer neural networks can perform such hierarchical learning _efficiently_ and _automatically_ by SGD on the training objective. On the conceptual side, we present a theoretical characterizations of how certain types of deep (i.e. super-constant layer) neural networks can still be sample and time efficiently trained on some hierarchical tasks, when no existing algorithm (including layerwise training, kernel method, etc) is known to be efficient. We establish a new principle called "backward feature correction", where the errors in the lower-level features can be automatically corrected when training together with the higher-level layers. We believe this is a key behind how deep learning is performing deep (hierarchical) learning, as opposed to layerwise learning or simulating some non-hierarchical method. On the technical side, we show for every input dimension $d > 0$, there is a concept class of degree $\omega(1)$ multi-variate polynomials so that, using $\omega(1)$-layer neural networks as learners, SGD can learn any function from this class in $\mathsf{poly}(d)$ time to any $\frac{1}{\mathsf{poly}(d)}$ error, through learning to represent it as a composition of $\omega(1)$ layers of quadratic functions using "backward feature correction." In contrast, we do not know any other simpler algorithm (including layerwise training, applying kernel method sequentially, training a two-layer network, etc) that can learn this concept class in $\mathsf{poly}(d)$ time even to any $d^{-0.01}$ error. As a side result, we prove $d^{\omega(1)}$ lower bounds for several non-hierarchical learners, including any kernel methods.
Car-following behavior modeling is critical for understanding traffic flow dynamics and developing high-fidelity microscopic simulation models. Most existing impulse-response car-following models prioritize computational efficiency and interpretability by using a parsimonious nonlinear function based on immediate preceding state observations. However, this approach disregards historical information, limiting its ability to explain real-world driving data. Consequently, serially correlated residuals are commonly observed when calibrating these models with actual trajectory data, hindering their ability to capture complex and stochastic phenomena. To address this limitation, we propose a dynamic regression framework incorporating time series models, such as autoregressive processes, to capture error dynamics. This statistically rigorous calibration outperforms the simple assumption of independent errors and enables more accurate simulation and prediction by leveraging higher-order historical information. We validate the effectiveness of our framework using HighD and OpenACC data, demonstrating improved probabilistic simulations. In summary, our framework preserves the parsimonious nature of traditional car-following models while offering enhanced probabilistic simulations.
Feature bagging is a well-established ensembling method which aims to reduce prediction variance by training estimators in an ensemble on random subsamples or projections of features. Typically, ensembles are chosen to be homogeneous, in the sense the the number of feature dimensions available to an estimator is uniform across the ensemble. Here, we introduce heterogeneous feature ensembling, with estimators built on varying number of feature dimensions, and consider its performance in a linear regression setting. We study an ensemble of linear predictors, each fit using ridge regression on a subset of the available features. We allow the number of features included in these subsets to vary. Using the replica trick from statistical physics, we derive learning curves for ridge ensembles with deterministic linear masks. We obtain explicit expressions for the learning curves in the case of equicorrelated data with an isotropic feature noise. Using the derived expressions, we investigate the effect of subsampling and ensembling, finding sharp transitions in the optimal ensembling strategy in the parameter space of noise level, data correlations, and data-task alignment. Finally, we suggest variable-dimension feature bagging as a strategy to mitigate double descent for robust machine learning in practice.
Learning with rejection is a prototypical model for studying the interaction between humans and AI on prediction tasks. The model has two components, a predictor and a rejector. Upon the arrival of a sample, the rejector first decides whether to accept it; if accepted, the predictor fulfills the prediction task, and if rejected, the prediction will be deferred to humans. The learning problem requires learning a predictor and a rejector simultaneously. This changes the structure of the conventional loss function and often results in non-convexity and inconsistency issues. For the classification with rejection problem, several works develop surrogate losses for the jointly learning with provable consistency guarantees; in parallel, there has been less work for the regression counterpart. We study the regression with rejection (RwR) problem and investigate the no-rejection learning strategy which treats the RwR problem as a standard regression task to learn the predictor. We establish that the suboptimality of the no-rejection learning strategy observed in the literature can be mitigated by enlarging the function class of the predictor. Then we introduce the truncated loss to single out the learning for the predictor and we show that a consistent surrogate property can be established for the predictor individually in an easier way than for the predictor and the rejector jointly. Our findings advocate for a two-step learning procedure that first uses all the data to learn the predictor and then calibrates the prediction loss for the rejector. It is better aligned with the common intuition that more data samples will lead to a better predictor and it calls for more efforts on a better design of calibration algorithms for learning the rejector. While our discussions mainly focus on the regression problem, the theoretical results and insights generalize to the classification problem as well.
Reinforcement learning (RL) has been shown to learn sophisticated control policies for complex tasks including games, robotics, heating and cooling systems and text generation. The action-perception cycle in RL, however, generally assumes that a measurement of the state of the environment is available at each time step without a cost. In applications such as deep-sea and planetary robot exploration, materials design and medicine, however, there can be a high cost associated with measuring, or even approximating, the state of the environment. In this paper, we survey the recently growing literature that adopts the perspective that an RL agent might not need, or even want, a costly measurement at each time step. Within this context, we propose the Deep Dynamic Multi-Step Observationless Agent (DMSOA), contrast it with the literature and empirically evaluate it on OpenAI gym and Atari Pong environments. Our results, show that DMSOA learns a better policy with fewer decision steps and measurements than the considered alternative from the literature.
Recently, the performance of neural image compression (NIC) has steadily improved thanks to the last line of study, reaching or outperforming state-of-the-art conventional codecs. Despite significant progress, current NIC methods still rely on ConvNet-based entropy coding, limited in modeling long-range dependencies due to their local connectivity and the increasing number of architectural biases and priors, resulting in complex underperforming models with high decoding latency. Motivated by the efficiency investigation of the Tranformer-based transform coding framework, namely SwinT-ChARM, we propose to enhance the latter, as first, with a more straightforward yet effective Tranformer-based channel-wise auto-regressive prior model, resulting in an absolute image compression transformer (ICT). Through the proposed ICT, we can capture both global and local contexts from the latent representations and better parameterize the distribution of the quantized latents. Further, we leverage a learnable scaling module with a sandwich ConvNeXt-based pre-/post-processor to accurately extract more compact latent codes while reconstructing higher-quality images. Extensive experimental results on benchmark datasets showed that the proposed framework significantly improves the trade-off between coding efficiency and decoder complexity over the versatile video coding (VVC) reference encoder (VTM-18.0) and the neural codec SwinT-ChARM. Moreover, we provide model scaling studies to verify the computational efficiency of our approach and conduct several objective and subjective analyses to bring to the fore the performance gap between the adaptive image compression transformer (AICT) and the neural codec SwinT-ChARM.
We study efficient mechanisms for differentially private kernel density estimation (DP-KDE). Prior work for the Gaussian kernel described algorithms that run in time exponential in the number of dimensions $d$. This paper breaks the exponential barrier, and shows how the KDE can privately be approximated in time linear in $d$, making it feasible for high-dimensional data. We also present improved bounds for low-dimensional data. Our results are obtained through a general framework, which we term Locality Sensitive Quantization (LSQ), for constructing private KDE mechanisms where existing KDE approximation techniques can be applied. It lets us leverage several efficient non-private KDE methods -- like Random Fourier Features, the Fast Gauss Transform, and Locality Sensitive Hashing -- and ``privatize'' them in a black-box manner. Our experiments demonstrate that our resulting DP-KDE mechanisms are fast and accurate on large datasets in both high and low dimensions.
The goal of this work is to study waves interacting with partially immersed objects allowed to move freely in the vertical direction, and in a regime in which the propagation of the waves is described by the one dimensional Boussinesq-Abbott system. The problem can be reduced to a transmission problem for this Boussinesq system, in which the transmission conditions between the components of the domain at the left and at the right of the object are determined through the resolution of coupled forced ODEs in time satisfied by the vertical displacement of the object and the average discharge in the portion of the fluid located under the object. We propose a new extended formulation in which these ODEs are complemented by two other forced ODEs satisfied by the trace of the surface elevation at the contact points. The interest of this new extended formulation is that the forcing terms are easy to compute numerically and that the surface elevation at the contact points is furnished for free. Based on this formulation, we propose a second order scheme that involves a generalization of the MacCormack scheme with nonlocal flux and a source term, which is coupled to a second order Heun scheme for the ODEs. In order to validate this scheme, several explicit solutions for this wave-structure interaction problem are derived and can serve as benchmark for future codes. As a byproduct, our method provides a second order scheme for the generation of waves at the entrance of the numerical domain for the Boussinesq-Abbott system.
We introduce a maximal inequality for a local empirical process under strongly mixing data. Local empirical processes are defined as the (local) averages $\frac{1}{nh}\sum_{i=1}^n \mathbf{1}\{x - h \leq X_i \leq x+h\}f(Z_i)$, where $f$ belongs to a class of functions, $x \in \mathbb{R}$ and $h > 0$ is a bandwidth. Our nonasymptotic bounds control estimation error uniformly over the function class, evaluation point $x$ and bandwidth $h$. They are also general enough to accomodate function classes whose complexity increases with $n$. As an application, we apply our bounds to function classes that exhibit polynomial decay in their uniform covering numbers. When specialized to the problem of kernel density estimation, our bounds reveal that, under weak dependence with exponential decay, these estimators achieve the same (up to a logarithmic factor) sharp uniform-in-bandwidth rates derived in the iid setting by \cite{Einmahl2005}.
This paper addresses the difficulty of forecasting multiple financial time series (TS) conjointly using deep neural networks (DNN). We investigate whether DNN-based models could forecast these TS more efficiently by learning their representation directly. To this end, we make use of the dynamic factor graph (DFG) from that we enhance by proposing a novel variable-length attention-based mechanism to render it memory-augmented. Using this mechanism, we propose an unsupervised DNN architecture for multivariate TS forecasting that allows to learn and take advantage of the relationships between these TS. We test our model on two datasets covering 19 years of investment funds activities. Our experimental results show that our proposed approach outperforms significantly typical DNN-based and statistical models at forecasting their 21-day price trajectory.
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