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Conformal Predictors (CP) are wrappers around ML models, providing error guarantees under weak assumptions on the data distribution. They are suitable for a wide range of problems, from classification and regression to anomaly detection. Unfortunately, their very high computational complexity limits their applicability to large datasets. In this work, we show that it is possible to speed up a CP classifier considerably, by studying it in conjunction with the underlying ML method, and by exploiting incremental&decremental learning. For methods such as k-NN, KDE, and kernel LS-SVM, our approach reduces the running time by one order of magnitude, whilst producing exact solutions. With similar ideas, we also achieve a linear speed up for the harder case of bootstrapping. Finally, we extend these techniques to improve upon an optimization of k-NN CP for regression. We evaluate our findings empirically, and discuss when methods are suitable for CP optimization.

It is well-known that machine learning protocols typically under-utilize information on the probability distributions of feature vectors and related data, and instead directly compute regression or classification functions of feature vectors. In this paper we introduce a set of novel features for identifying underlying stochastic behavior of input data using the Karhunen-Lo\'{e}ve (KL) expansion, where classification is treated as detection of anomalies from a (nominal) signal class. These features are constructed from the recent Functional Data Analysis (FDA) theory for anomaly detection. The related signal decomposition is an exact hierarchical tensor product expansion with known optimality properties for approximating stochastic processes (random fields) with finite dimensional function spaces. In principle these primary low dimensional spaces can capture most of the stochastic behavior of `underlying signals' in a given nominal class, and can reject signals in alternative classes as stochastic anomalies. Using a hierarchical finite dimensional KL expansion of the nominal class, a series of orthogonal nested subspaces is constructed for detecting anomalous signal components. Projection coefficients of input data in these subspaces are then used to train an ML classifier. However, due to the split of the signal into nominal and anomalous projection components, clearer separation surfaces of the classes arise. In fact we show that with a sufficiently accurate estimation of the covariance structure of the nominal class, a sharp classification can be obtained. We carefully formulate this concept and demonstrate it on a number of high-dimensional datasets in cancer diagnostics. This method leads to a significant increase in precision and accuracy over the current top benchmarks for the Global Cancer Map (GCM) gene expression network dataset.

We establish connections between invariant theory and maximum likelihood estimation for discrete statistical models. We show that norm minimization over a torus orbit is equivalent to maximum likelihood estimation in log-linear models. We use notions of stability under a torus action to characterize the existence of the maximum likelihood estimate, and discuss connections to scaling algorithms.

This paper concerns the construction of confidence intervals in standard seroprevalence surveys. In particular, we discuss methods for constructing confidence intervals for the proportion of individuals in a population infected with a disease using a sample of antibody test results and measurements of the test's false positive and false negative rates. We begin by documenting erratic behavior in the coverage probabilities of standard Wald and percentile bootstrap intervals when applied to this problem. We then consider two alternative sets of intervals constructed with test inversion. The first set of intervals are approximate, using either asymptotic or bootstrap approximation to the finite-sample distribution of a chosen test statistic. We consider several choices of test statistic, including maximum likelihood estimators and generalized likelihood ratio statistics. We show with simulation that, at empirically relevant parameter values and sample sizes, the coverage probabilities for these intervals are close to their nominal level and are approximately equi-tailed. The second set of intervals are shown to contain the true parameter value with probability at least equal to the nominal level, but can be conservative in finite samples.

Contemporary time series analysis has seen more and more tensor type data, from many fields. For example, stocks can be grouped according to Size, Book-to-Market ratio, and Operating Profitability, leading to a 3-way tensor observation at each month. We propose an autoregressive model for the tensor-valued time series, with autoregressive terms depending on multi-linear coefficient matrices. Comparing with the traditional approach of vectoring the tensor observations and then applying the vector autoregressive model, the tensor autoregressive model preserves the tensor structure and admits corresponding interpretations. We introduce three estimators based on projection, least squares, and maximum likelihood. Our analysis considers both fixed dimensional and high dimensional settings. For the former we establish the central limit theorems of the estimators, and for the latter we focus on the convergence rates and the model selection. The performance of the model is demonstrated by simulated and real examples.

In many areas of science, complex phenomena are modeled by stochastic parametric simulators, often featuring high-dimensional parameter spaces and intractable likelihoods. In this context, performing Bayesian inference can be challenging. In this work, we present a novel method that enables amortized inference over arbitrary subsets of the parameters, without resorting to numerical integration, which makes interpretation of the posterior more convenient. Our method is efficient and can be implemented with arbitrary neural network architectures. We demonstrate the applicability of the method on parameter inference of binary black hole systems from gravitational waves observations.

Change Point Detection techniques aim to capture changes in trends and sequences in time-series data to describe the underlying behaviour of the system. Detecting changes and anomalies in the web services, the trend of applications usage can provide valuable insight towards the system, however, many existing approaches are done in a supervised manner, requiring well-labelled data. As the amount of data produced and captured by sensors are growing rapidly, it is getting harder and even impossible to annotate the data. Therefore, coming up with a self-supervised solution is a necessity these days. In this work, we propose TSCP a novel self-supervised technique for temporal change point detection, based on representation learning with Temporal Convolutional Network (TCN). To the best of our knowledge, our proposed method is the first method which employs Contrastive Learning for prediction with the aim change point detection. Through extensive evaluations, we demonstrate that our method outperforms multiple state-of-the-art change point detection and anomaly detection baselines, including those adopting either unsupervised or semi-supervised approach. TSCP is shown to improve both non-Deep learning- and Deep learning-based methods by 0.28 and 0.12 in terms of average F1-score across three datasets.

To learn intrinsic low-dimensional structures from high-dimensional data that most discriminate between classes, we propose the principle of Maximal Coding Rate Reduction ($\text{MCR}^2$), an information-theoretic measure that maximizes the coding rate difference between the whole dataset and the sum of each individual class. We clarify its relationships with most existing frameworks such as cross-entropy, information bottleneck, information gain, contractive and contrastive learning, and provide theoretical guarantees for learning diverse and discriminative features. The coding rate can be accurately computed from finite samples of degenerate subspace-like distributions and can learn intrinsic representations in supervised, self-supervised, and unsupervised settings in a unified manner. Empirically, the representations learned using this principle alone are significantly more robust to label corruptions in classification than those using cross-entropy, and can lead to state-of-the-art results in clustering mixed data from self-learned invariant features.

Probabilistic topic models are popular unsupervised learning methods, including probabilistic latent semantic indexing (pLSI) and latent Dirichlet allocation (LDA). By now, their training is implemented on general purpose computers (GPCs), which are flexible in programming but energy-consuming. Towards low-energy implementations, this paper investigates their training on an emerging hardware technology called the neuromorphic multi-chip systems (NMSs). NMSs are very effective for a family of algorithms called spiking neural networks (SNNs). We present three SNNs to train topic models. The first SNN is a batch algorithm combining the conventional collapsed Gibbs sampling (CGS) algorithm and an inference SNN to train LDA. The other two SNNs are online algorithms targeting at both energy- and storage-limited environments. The two online algorithms are equivalent with training LDA by using maximum-a-posterior estimation and maximizing the semi-collapsed likelihood, respectively. They use novel, tailored ordinary differential equations for stochastic optimization. We simulate the new algorithms and show that they are comparable with the GPC algorithms, while being suitable for NMS implementation. We also propose an extension to train pLSI and a method to prune the network to obey the limited fan-in of some NMSs.

Generative adversarial networks (GANs) are powerful tools for learning generative models. In practice, the training may suffer from lack of convergence. GANs are commonly viewed as a two-player zero-sum game between two neural networks. Here, we leverage this game theoretic view to study the convergence behavior of the training process. Inspired by the fictitious play learning process, a novel training method, referred to as Fictitious GAN, is introduced. Fictitious GAN trains the deep neural networks using a mixture of historical models. Specifically, the discriminator (resp. generator) is updated according to the best-response to the mixture outputs from a sequence of previously trained generators (resp. discriminators). It is shown that Fictitious GAN can effectively resolve some convergence issues that cannot be resolved by the standard training approach. It is proved that asymptotically the average of the generator outputs has the same distribution as the data samples.