Uncertainty quantification is crucial to decision-making. A prominent example is probabilistic forecasting in numerical weather prediction. The dominant approach to representing uncertainty in weather forecasting is to generate an ensemble of forecasts. This is done by running many physics-based simulations under different conditions, which is a computationally costly process. We propose to amortize the computational cost by emulating these forecasts with deep generative diffusion models learned from historical data. The learned models are highly scalable with respect to high-performance computing accelerators and can sample hundreds to tens of thousands of realistic weather forecasts at low cost. When designed to emulate operational ensemble forecasts, the generated ones are similar to physics-based ensembles in important statistical properties and predictive skill. When designed to correct biases present in the operational forecasting system, the generated ensembles show improved probabilistic forecast metrics. They are more reliable and forecast probabilities of extreme weather events more accurately. While this work demonstrates the utility of the methodology by focusing on weather forecasting, the generative artificial intelligence methodology can be extended for uncertainty quantification in climate modeling, where we believe the generation of very large ensembles of climate projections will play an increasingly important role in climate risk assessment.
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Efficiency is a key property to foster inclusiveness and reduce environmental costs, especially in an era of LLMs. In this work, we provide a comprehensive evaluation of efficiency for MT evaluation metrics. Our approach involves replacing computation-intensive transformers with lighter alternatives and employing linear and quadratic approximations for alignment algorithms on top of LLM representations. We evaluate six (reference-free and reference-based) metrics across three MT datasets and examine 16 lightweight transformers. In addition, we look into the training efficiency of metrics like COMET by utilizing adapters. Our results indicate that (a) TinyBERT provides the optimal balance between quality and efficiency, (b) CPU speed-ups are more substantial than those on GPU; (c) WMD approximations yield no efficiency gains while reducing quality and (d) adapters enhance training efficiency (regarding backward pass speed and memory requirements) as well as, in some cases, metric quality. These findings can help to strike a balance between evaluation speed and quality, which is essential for effective NLG systems. Furthermore, our research contributes to the ongoing efforts to optimize NLG evaluation metrics with minimal impact on performance. To our knowledge, ours is the most comprehensive analysis of different aspects of efficiency for MT metrics conducted so far.
Quality assessment algorithms can be used to estimate the utility of a biometric sample for the purpose of biometric recognition. "Error versus Discard Characteristic" (EDC) plots, and "partial Area Under Curve" (pAUC) values of curves therein, are generally used by researchers to evaluate the predictive performance of such quality assessment algorithms. An EDC curve depends on an error type such as the "False Non Match Rate" (FNMR), a quality assessment algorithm, a biometric recognition system, a set of comparisons each corresponding to a biometric sample pair, and a comparison score threshold corresponding to a starting error. To compute an EDC curve, comparisons are progressively discarded based on the associated samples' lowest quality scores, and the error is computed for the remaining comparisons. Additionally, a discard fraction limit or range must be selected to compute pAUC values, which can then be used to quantitatively rank quality assessment algorithms. This paper discusses and analyses various details for this kind of quality assessment algorithm evaluation, including general EDC properties, interpretability improvements for pAUC values based on a hard lower error limit and a soft upper error limit, the use of relative instead of discrete rankings, stepwise vs. linear curve interpolation, and normalisation of quality scores to a [0, 100] integer range. We also analyse the stability of quantitative quality assessment algorithm rankings based on pAUC values across varying pAUC discard fraction limits and starting errors, concluding that higher pAUC discard fraction limits should be preferred. The analyses are conducted both with synthetic data and with real face image and fingerprint data, with a focus on general modality-independent conclusions for EDC evaluations. Various EDC alternatives are discussed as well.
The shuffle model of differential privacy has gained significant interest as an intermediate trust model between the standard local and central models [EFMRTT19; CSUZZ19]. A key result in this model is that randomly shuffling locally randomized data amplifies differential privacy guarantees. Such amplification implies substantially stronger privacy guarantees for systems in which data is contributed anonymously [BEMMRLRKTS17]. In this work, we improve the state of the art privacy amplification by shuffling results both theoretically and numerically. Our first contribution is the first asymptotically optimal analysis of the R\'enyi differential privacy parameters for the shuffled outputs of LDP randomizers. Our second contribution is a new analysis of privacy amplification by shuffling. This analysis improves on the techniques of [FMT20] and leads to tighter numerical bounds in all parameter settings.
Sentiment analysis (SA) is commonly applied to digital textual data, revealing insight into opinions and feelings. Many systematic reviews have summarized existing work, but often overlook discussions of validity and scientific practices. Here, we present an overview of reviews, synthesizing 38 systematic reviews, containing 2,275 primary studies. We devise a bespoke quality assessment framework designed to assess the rigor and quality of systematic review methodologies and reporting standards. Our findings show diverse applications and methods, limited reporting rigor, and challenges over time. We discuss how future research and practitioners can address these issues and highlight their importance across numerous applications.
Training fingerprint recognition models using synthetic data has recently gained increased attention in the biometric community as it alleviates the dependency on sensitive personal data. Existing approaches for fingerprint generation are limited in their ability to generate diverse impressions of the same finger, a key property for providing effective data for training recognition models. To address this gap, we present FPGAN-Control, an identity preserving image generation framework which enables control over the fingerprint's image appearance (e.g., fingerprint type, acquisition device, pressure level) of generated fingerprints. We introduce a novel appearance loss that encourages disentanglement between the fingerprint's identity and appearance properties. In our experiments, we used the publicly available NIST SD302 (N2N) dataset for training the FPGAN-Control model. We demonstrate the merits of FPGAN-Control, both quantitatively and qualitatively, in terms of identity preservation level, degree of appearance control, and low synthetic-to-real domain gap. Finally, training recognition models using only synthetic datasets generated by FPGAN-Control lead to recognition accuracies that are on par or even surpass models trained using real data. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work to demonstrate this.
Decision analysis deals with modeling and enhancing decision processes. A principal challenge in improving behavior is in obtaining a transparent description of existing behavior in the first place. In this paper, we develop an expressive, unifying perspective on inverse decision modeling: a framework for learning parameterized representations of sequential decision behavior. First, we formalize the forward problem (as a normative standard), subsuming common classes of control behavior. Second, we use this to formalize the inverse problem (as a descriptive model), generalizing existing work on imitation/reward learning -- while opening up a much broader class of research problems in behavior representation. Finally, we instantiate this approach with an example (inverse bounded rational control), illustrating how this structure enables learning (interpretable) representations of (bounded) rationality -- while naturally capturing intuitive notions of suboptimal actions, biased beliefs, and imperfect knowledge of environments.
Machine Unlearning (MU) algorithms have become increasingly critical due to the imperative adherence to data privacy regulations. The primary objective of MU is to erase the influence of specific data samples on a given model without the need to retrain it from scratch. Accordingly, existing methods focus on maximizing user privacy protection. However, there are different degrees of privacy regulations for each real-world web-based application. Exploring the full spectrum of trade-offs between privacy, model utility, and runtime efficiency is critical for practical unlearning scenarios. Furthermore, designing the MU algorithm with simple control of the aforementioned trade-off is desirable but challenging due to the inherent complex interaction. To address the challenges, we present Controllable Machine Unlearning (ConMU), a novel framework designed to facilitate the calibration of MU. The ConMU framework contains three integral modules: an important data selection module that reconciles the runtime efficiency and model generalization, a progressive Gaussian mechanism module that balances privacy and model generalization, and an unlearning proxy that controls the trade-offs between privacy and runtime efficiency. Comprehensive experiments on various benchmark datasets have demonstrated the robust adaptability of our control mechanism and its superiority over established unlearning methods. ConMU explores the full spectrum of the Privacy-Utility-Efficiency trade-off and allows practitioners to account for different real-world regulations. Source code available at: //github.com/guangyaodou/ConMU.
Distributional reinforcement learning algorithms have attempted to utilize estimated uncertainty for exploration, such as optimism in the face of uncertainty. However, using the estimated variance for optimistic exploration may cause biased data collection and hinder convergence or performance. In this paper, we present a novel distributional reinforcement learning algorithm that selects actions by randomizing risk criterion to avoid one-sided tendency on risk. We provide a perturbed distributional Bellman optimality operator by distorting the risk measure and prove the convergence and optimality of the proposed method with the weaker contraction property. Our theoretical results support that the proposed method does not fall into biased exploration and is guaranteed to converge to an optimal return. Finally, we empirically show that our method outperforms other existing distribution-based algorithms in various environments including Atari 55 games.
Temporal relation extraction models have thus far been hindered by a number of issues in existing temporal relation-annotated news datasets, including: (1) low inter-annotator agreement due to the lack of specificity of their annotation guidelines in terms of what counts as a temporal relation; (2) the exclusion of long-distance relations within a given document (those spanning across different paragraphs); and (3) the exclusion of events that are not centred on verbs. This paper aims to alleviate these issues by presenting a new annotation scheme that clearly defines the criteria based on which temporal relations should be annotated. Additionally, the scheme includes events even if they are not expressed as verbs (e.g., nominalised events). Furthermore, we propose a method for annotating all temporal relations -- including long-distance ones -- which automates the process, hence reducing time and manual effort on the part of annotators. The result is a new dataset, the TIMELINE corpus, in which improved inter-annotator agreement was obtained, in comparison with previously reported temporal relation datasets. We report the results of training and evaluating baseline temporal relation extraction models on the new corpus, and compare them with results obtained on the widely used MATRES corpus.
The existence of representative datasets is a prerequisite of many successful artificial intelligence and machine learning models. However, the subsequent application of these models often involves scenarios that are inadequately represented in the data used for training. The reasons for this are manifold and range from time and cost constraints to ethical considerations. As a consequence, the reliable use of these models, especially in safety-critical applications, is a huge challenge. Leveraging additional, already existing sources of knowledge is key to overcome the limitations of purely data-driven approaches, and eventually to increase the generalization capability of these models. Furthermore, predictions that conform with knowledge are crucial for making trustworthy and safe decisions even in underrepresented scenarios. This work provides an overview of existing techniques and methods in the literature that combine data-based models with existing knowledge. The identified approaches are structured according to the categories integration, extraction and conformity. Special attention is given to applications in the field of autonomous driving.
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