Conditioning on variables affected by treatment can induce post-treatment bias when estimating causal effects. Although this suggests that researchers should measure potential moderators before administering the treatment in an experiment, doing so may also bias causal effect estimation if the covariate measurement primes respondents to react differently to the treatment. This paper formally analyzes this trade-off between post-treatment and priming biases in three experimental designs that vary when moderators are measured: pre-treatment, post-treatment, or a randomized choice between the two. We derive nonparametric bounds for interactions between the treatment and the moderator in each design and show how to use substantive assumptions to narrow these bounds. These bounds allow researchers to assess the sensitivity of their empirical findings to either source of bias. We then apply these methods to a survey experiment on electoral messaging.
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Lattices are architected metamaterials whose properties strongly depend on their geometrical design. The analogy between lattices and graphs enables the use of graph neural networks (GNNs) as a faster surrogate model compared to traditional methods such as finite element modelling. In this work, we generate a big dataset of structure-property relationships for strut-based lattices. The dataset is made available to the community which can fuel the development of methods anchored in physical principles for the fitting of fourth-order tensors. In addition, we present a higher-order GNN model trained on this dataset. The key features of the model are (i) SE(3) equivariance, and (ii) consistency with the thermodynamic law of conservation of energy. We compare the model to non-equivariant models based on a number of error metrics and demonstrate its benefits in terms of predictive performance and reduced training requirements. Finally, we demonstrate an example application of the model to an architected material design task. The methods which we developed are applicable to fourth-order tensors beyond elasticity such as piezo-optical tensor etc.
Social media platforms have witnessed a substantial increase in social bot activity, significantly affecting online discourse. Our study explores the dynamic nature of bot engagement related to Extinction Rebellion climate change protests from 18 November 2019 to 10 December 2019. We find that bots exert a greater influence on human behavior than vice versa during heated online periods. To assess the causal impact of human-bot communication, we compared communication histories between human users who directly interacted with bots and matched human users who did not. Our findings demonstrate a consistent negative impact of bot interactions on subsequent human sentiment, with exposed users displaying significantly more negative sentiment than their counterparts. Furthermore, the nature of bot interaction influences human tweeting activity and the sentiment towards protests. Political astroturfing bots increase activity, whereas other bots decrease it. Sentiment changes towards protests depend on the user's original support level, indicating targeted manipulation. However, bot interactions do not change activists' engagement towards protests. Despite the seemingly minor impact of individual bot encounters, the cumulative effect is profound due to the large volume of bot communication. Our findings underscore the importance of unrestricted access to social media data for studying the prevalence and influence of social bots, as with new technological advancements distinguishing between bots and humans becomes nearly impossible.
Automated feature extraction from MRI brain scans and diagnosis of Alzheimer's disease are ongoing challenges. With advances in 3D imaging technology, 3D data acquisition is becoming more viable and efficient than its 2D counterpart. Rather than using feature-based vectors, in this paper, for the first time, we suggest a pipeline to extract novel covariance-based descriptors from the cortical surface using the Ricci energy optimization. The covariance descriptors are components of the nonlinear manifold of symmetric positive-definite matrices, thus we focus on using the Gaussian radial basis function to apply manifold-based classification to the 3D shape problem. Applying this novel signature to the analysis of abnormal cortical brain morphometry allows for diagnosing Alzheimer's disease. Experimental studies performed on about two hundred 3D MRI brain models, gathered from Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) dataset demonstrate the effectiveness of our descriptors in achieving remarkable classification accuracy.
The use of Artificial Intelligence (AI) based on data-driven algorithms has become ubiquitous in today's society. Yet, in many cases and especially when stakes are high, humans still make final decisions. The critical question, therefore, is whether AI helps humans make better decisions as compared to a human alone or AI an alone. We introduce a new methodological framework that can be used to answer experimentally this question with no additional assumptions. We measure a decision maker's ability to make correct decisions using standard classification metrics based on the baseline potential outcome. We consider a single-blinded experimental design, in which the provision of AI-generated recommendations is randomized across cases with a human making final decisions. Under this experimental design, we show how to compare the performance of three alternative decision-making systems--human-alone, human-with-AI, and AI-alone. We apply the proposed methodology to the data from our own randomized controlled trial of a pretrial risk assessment instrument. We find that AI recommendations do not improve the classification accuracy of a judge's decision to impose cash bail. Our analysis also shows that AI-alone decisions generally perform worse than human decisions with or without AI assistance. Finally, AI recommendations tend to impose cash bail on non-white arrestees more often than necessary when compared to white arrestees.
A wide range of applications in science and engineering involve a PDE model in a domain with perforations, such as perforated metals or air filters. Solving such perforated domain problems suffers from computational challenges related to resolving the scale imposed by the geometries of perforations. We propose a neural network-based mesh-free approach for perforated domain problems. The method is robust and efficient in capturing various configuration scales, including the averaged macroscopic behavior of the solution that involves a multiscale nature induced by small perforations. The new approach incorporates the derivative-free loss method that uses a stochastic representation or the Feynman-Kac formulation. In particular, we implement the Neumann boundary condition for the derivative-free loss method to handle the interface between the domain and perforations. A suite of stringent numerical tests is provided to support the proposed method's efficacy in handling various perforation scales.
Artificial intelligence (AI) models are increasingly used in the medical domain. However, as medical data is highly sensitive, special precautions to ensure its protection are required. The gold standard for privacy preservation is the introduction of differential privacy (DP) to model training. Prior work indicates that DP has negative implications on model accuracy and fairness, which are unacceptable in medicine and represent a main barrier to the widespread use of privacy-preserving techniques. In this work, we evaluated the effect of privacy-preserving training of AI models regarding accuracy and fairness compared to non-private training. For this, we used two datasets: (1) A large dataset (N=193,311) of high quality clinical chest radiographs, and (2) a dataset (N=1,625) of 3D abdominal computed tomography (CT) images, with the task of classifying the presence of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC). Both were retrospectively collected and manually labeled by experienced radiologists. We then compared non-private deep convolutional neural networks (CNNs) and privacy-preserving (DP) models with respect to privacy-utility trade-offs measured as area under the receiver-operator-characteristic curve (AUROC), and privacy-fairness trade-offs, measured as Pearson's r or Statistical Parity Difference. We found that, while the privacy-preserving trainings yielded lower accuracy, they did largely not amplify discrimination against age, sex or co-morbidity. Our study shows that -- under the challenging realistic circumstances of a real-life clinical dataset -- the privacy-preserving training of diagnostic deep learning models is possible with excellent diagnostic accuracy and fairness.
Uncertainty is a key feature of any machine learning model and is particularly important in neural networks, which tend to be overconfident. This overconfidence is worrying under distribution shifts, where the model performance silently degrades as the data distribution diverges from the training data distribution. Uncertainty estimation offers a solution to overconfident models, communicating when the output should (not) be trusted. Although methods for uncertainty estimation have been developed, they have not been explicitly linked to the field of explainable artificial intelligence (XAI). Furthermore, literature in operations research ignores the actionability component of uncertainty estimation and does not consider distribution shifts. This work proposes a general uncertainty framework, with contributions being threefold: (i) uncertainty estimation in ML models is positioned as an XAI technique, giving local and model-specific explanations; (ii) classification with rejection is used to reduce misclassifications by bringing a human expert in the loop for uncertain observations; (iii) the framework is applied to a case study on neural networks in educational data mining subject to distribution shifts. Uncertainty as XAI improves the model's trustworthiness in downstream decision-making tasks, giving rise to more actionable and robust machine learning systems in operations research.
This paper develops an in-depth treatment concerning the problem of approximating the Gaussian smoothing and Gaussian derivative computations in scale-space theory for application on discrete data. With close connections to previous axiomatic treatments of continuous and discrete scale-space theory, we consider three main ways discretizing these scale-space operations in terms of explicit discrete convolutions, based on either (i) sampling the Gaussian kernels and the Gaussian derivative kernels, (ii) locally integrating the Gaussian kernels and the Gaussian derivative kernels over each pixel support region and (iii) basing the scale-space analysis on the discrete analogue of the Gaussian kernel, and then computing derivative approximations by applying small-support central difference operators to the spatially smoothed image data. We study the properties of these three main discretization methods both theoretically and experimentally, and characterize their performance by quantitative measures, including the results they give rise to with respect to the task of scale selection, investigated for four different use cases, and with emphasis on the behaviour at fine scales. The results show that the sampled Gaussian kernels and derivatives as well as the integrated Gaussian kernels and derivatives perform very poorly at very fine scales. At very fine scales, the discrete analogue of the Gaussian kernel with its corresponding discrete derivative approximations performs substantially better. The sampled Gaussian kernel and the sampled Gaussian derivatives do, on the other hand, lead to numerically very good approximations of the corresponding continuous results, when the scale parameter is sufficiently large, in the experiments presented in the paper, when the scale parameter is greater than a value of about 1, in units of the grid spacing.
A key requirement for the success of supervised deep learning is a large labeled dataset - a condition that is difficult to meet in medical image analysis. Self-supervised learning (SSL) can help in this regard by providing a strategy to pre-train a neural network with unlabeled data, followed by fine-tuning for a downstream task with limited annotations. Contrastive learning, a particular variant of SSL, is a powerful technique for learning image-level representations. In this work, we propose strategies for extending the contrastive learning framework for segmentation of volumetric medical images in the semi-supervised setting with limited annotations, by leveraging domain-specific and problem-specific cues. Specifically, we propose (1) novel contrasting strategies that leverage structural similarity across volumetric medical images (domain-specific cue) and (2) a local version of the contrastive loss to learn distinctive representations of local regions that are useful for per-pixel segmentation (problem-specific cue). We carry out an extensive evaluation on three Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) datasets. In the limited annotation setting, the proposed method yields substantial improvements compared to other self-supervision and semi-supervised learning techniques. When combined with a simple data augmentation technique, the proposed method reaches within 8% of benchmark performance using only two labeled MRI volumes for training, corresponding to only 4% (for ACDC) of the training data used to train the benchmark.
Although measuring held-out accuracy has been the primary approach to evaluate generalization, it often overestimates the performance of NLP models, while alternative approaches for evaluating models either focus on individual tasks or on specific behaviors. Inspired by principles of behavioral testing in software engineering, we introduce CheckList, a task-agnostic methodology for testing NLP models. CheckList includes a matrix of general linguistic capabilities and test types that facilitate comprehensive test ideation, as well as a software tool to generate a large and diverse number of test cases quickly. We illustrate the utility of CheckList with tests for three tasks, identifying critical failures in both commercial and state-of-art models. In a user study, a team responsible for a commercial sentiment analysis model found new and actionable bugs in an extensively tested model. In another user study, NLP practitioners with CheckList created twice as many tests, and found almost three times as many bugs as users without it.
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