We consider the problem of uncertainty quantification for an unknown low-rank matrix $\mathbf{X}$, given a partial and noisy observation of its entries. This quantification of uncertainty is essential for many real-world problems, including image processing, satellite imaging, and seismology, providing a principled framework for validating scientific conclusions and guiding decision-making. However, existing literature has mainly focused on the completion (i.e., point estimation) of the matrix $\mathbf{X}$, with little work on investigating its uncertainty. To this end, we propose in this work a new Bayesian modeling framework, called BayeSMG, which parametrizes the unknown $\mathbf{X}$ via its underlying row and column subspaces. This Bayesian subspace parametrization enables efficient posterior inference on matrix subspaces, which represents interpretable phenomena in many applications. This can then be leveraged for improved matrix recovery. We demonstrate the effectiveness of BayeSMG over existing Bayesian matrix recovery methods in numerical experiments, image inpainting, and a seismic sensor network application.
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This paper tackles the problem of missing data imputation for noisy and non-Gaussian data. A classical imputation method, the Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm for Gaussian mixture models, has shown interesting properties when compared to other popular approaches such as those based on k-nearest neighbors or on multiple imputations by chained equations. However, Gaussian mixture models are known to be not robust to heterogeneous data, which can lead to poor estimation performance when the data is contaminated by outliers or come from a non-Gaussian distributions. To overcome this issue, a new expectation maximization algorithm is investigated for mixtures of elliptical distributions with the nice property of handling potential missing data. The complete-data likelihood associated with mixtures of elliptical distributions is well adapted to the EM framework thanks to its conditional distribution, which is shown to be a Student distribution. Experimental results on synthetic data demonstrate that the proposed algorithm is robust to outliers and can be used with non-Gaussian data. Furthermore, experiments conducted on real-world datasets show that this algorithm is very competitive when compared to other classical imputation methods.
Recently, conditional average treatment effect (CATE) estimation has been attracting much attention due to its importance in various fields such as statistics, social and biomedical sciences. This study proposes a partially linear nonparametric Bayes model for the heterogeneous treatment effect estimation. A partially linear model is a semiparametric model that consists of linear and nonparametric components in an additive form. A nonparametric Bayes model that uses a Gaussian process to model the nonparametric component has already been studied. However, this model cannot handle the heterogeneity of the treatment effect. In our proposed model, not only the nonparametric component of the model but also the heterogeneous treatment effect of the treatment variable is modeled by a Gaussian process prior. We derive the analytic form of the posterior distribution of the CATE and prove that the posterior has the consistency property. That is, it concentrates around the true distribution. We show the effectiveness of the proposed method through numerical experiments based on synthetic data.
We propose new approximate alternating projection methods, based on randomized sketching, for the low-rank nonnegative matrix approximation problem: find a low-rank approximation of a nonnegative matrix that is nonnegative, but whose factors can be arbitrary. We calculate the computational complexities of the proposed methods and evaluate their performance in numerical experiments. The comparison with the known deterministic alternating projection methods shows that the randomized approaches are faster and exhibit similar convergence properties.
The $k$-center problem is to choose a subset of size $k$ from a set of $n$ points such that the maximum distance from each point to its nearest center is minimized. Let $Q=\{Q_1,\ldots,Q_n\}$ be a set of polygons or segments in the region-based uncertainty model, in which each $Q_i$ is an uncertain point, where the exact locations of the points in $Q_i$ are unknown. The geometric objects segments and polygons can be models of a point set. We define the uncertain version of the $k$-center problem as a generalization in which the objective is to find $k$ points from $Q$ to cover the remaining regions of $Q$ with minimum or maximum radius of the cluster to cover at least one or all exact instances of each $Q_i$, respectively. We modify the region-based model to allow multiple points to be chosen from a region and call the resulting model the aggregated uncertainty model. All these problems contain the point version as a special case, so they are all NP-hard with a lower bound 1.822. We give approximation algorithms for uncertain $k$-center of a set of segments and polygons. We also have implemented some of our algorithms on a data-set to show our theoretical performance guarantees can be achieved in practice.
We consider the matrix least squares problem of the form $\| \mathbf{A} \mathbf{X}-\mathbf{B} \|_F^2$ where the design matrix $\mathbf{A} \in \mathbb{R}^{N \times r}$ is tall and skinny with $N \gg r$. We propose to create a sketched version $\| \tilde{\mathbf{A}}\mathbf{X}-\tilde{\mathbf{B}} \|_F^2$ where the sketched matrices $\tilde{\mathbf{A}}$ and $\tilde{\mathbf{B}}$ contain weighted subsets of the rows of $\mathbf{A}$ and $\mathbf{B}$, respectively. The subset of rows is determined via random sampling based on leverage score estimates for each row. We say that the sketched problem is $\epsilon$-accurate if its solution $\tilde{\mathbf{X}}_{\rm \text{opt}} = \text{argmin } \| \tilde{\mathbf{A}}\mathbf{X}-\tilde{\mathbf{B}} \|_F^2$ satisfies $\|\mathbf{A}\tilde{\mathbf{X}}_{\rm \text{opt}}-\mathbf{B} \|_F^2 \leq (1+\epsilon) \min \| \mathbf{A}\mathbf{X}-\mathbf{B} \|_F^2$ with high probability. We prove that the number of samples required for an $\epsilon$-accurate solution is $O(r/(\beta \epsilon))$ where $\beta \in (0,1]$ is a measure of the quality of the leverage score estimates.
System identification is of special interest in science and engineering. This article is concerned with a system identification problem arising in stochastic dynamic systems, where the aim is to estimate the parameters of a system along with its unknown noise processes. In particular, we propose a Bayesian nonparametric approach for system identification in discrete time nonlinear random dynamical systems assuming only the order of the Markov process is known. The proposed method replaces the assumption of Gaussian distributed error components with a highly flexible family of probability density functions based on Bayesian nonparametric priors. Additionally, the functional form of the system is estimated by leveraging Bayesian neural networks which also leads to flexible uncertainty quantification. Asymptotically on the number of hidden neurons, the proposed model converges to full nonparametric Bayesian regression model. A Gibbs sampler for posterior inference is proposed and its effectiveness is illustrated on simulated and real time series.
In 1954, Alston S. Householder published Principles of Numerical Analysis, one of the first modern treatments on matrix decomposition that favored a (block) LU decomposition-the factorization of a matrix into the product of lower and upper triangular matrices. And now, matrix decomposition has become a core technology in machine learning, largely due to the development of the back propagation algorithm in fitting a neural network. The sole aim of this survey is to give a self-contained introduction to concepts and mathematical tools in numerical linear algebra and matrix analysis in order to seamlessly introduce matrix decomposition techniques and their applications in subsequent sections. However, we clearly realize our inability to cover all the useful and interesting results concerning matrix decomposition and given the paucity of scope to present this discussion, e.g., the separated analysis of the Euclidean space, Hermitian space, Hilbert space, and things in the complex domain. We refer the reader to literature in the field of linear algebra for a more detailed introduction to the related fields.
Due to their increasing spread, confidence in neural network predictions became more and more important. However, basic neural networks do not deliver certainty estimates or suffer from over or under confidence. Many researchers have been working on understanding and quantifying uncertainty in a neural network's prediction. As a result, different types and sources of uncertainty have been identified and a variety of approaches to measure and quantify uncertainty in neural networks have been proposed. This work gives a comprehensive overview of uncertainty estimation in neural networks, reviews recent advances in the field, highlights current challenges, and identifies potential research opportunities. It is intended to give anyone interested in uncertainty estimation in neural networks a broad overview and introduction, without presupposing prior knowledge in this field. A comprehensive introduction to the most crucial sources of uncertainty is given and their separation into reducible model uncertainty and not reducible data uncertainty is presented. The modeling of these uncertainties based on deterministic neural networks, Bayesian neural networks, ensemble of neural networks, and test-time data augmentation approaches is introduced and different branches of these fields as well as the latest developments are discussed. For a practical application, we discuss different measures of uncertainty, approaches for the calibration of neural networks and give an overview of existing baselines and implementations. Different examples from the wide spectrum of challenges in different fields give an idea of the needs and challenges regarding uncertainties in practical applications. Additionally, the practical limitations of current methods for mission- and safety-critical real world applications are discussed and an outlook on the next steps towards a broader usage of such methods is given.
Embedding models for deterministic Knowledge Graphs (KG) have been extensively studied, with the purpose of capturing latent semantic relations between entities and incorporating the structured knowledge into machine learning. However, there are many KGs that model uncertain knowledge, which typically model the inherent uncertainty of relations facts with a confidence score, and embedding such uncertain knowledge represents an unresolved challenge. The capturing of uncertain knowledge will benefit many knowledge-driven applications such as question answering and semantic search by providing more natural characterization of the knowledge. In this paper, we propose a novel uncertain KG embedding model UKGE, which aims to preserve both structural and uncertainty information of relation facts in the embedding space. Unlike previous models that characterize relation facts with binary classification techniques, UKGE learns embeddings according to the confidence scores of uncertain relation facts. To further enhance the precision of UKGE, we also introduce probabilistic soft logic to infer confidence scores for unseen relation facts during training. We propose and evaluate two variants of UKGE based on different learning objectives. Experiments are conducted on three real-world uncertain KGs via three tasks, i.e. confidence prediction, relation fact ranking, and relation fact classification. UKGE shows effectiveness in capturing uncertain knowledge by achieving promising results on these tasks, and consistently outperforms baselines on these tasks.
This paper describes a suite of algorithms for constructing low-rank approximations of an input matrix from a random linear image of the matrix, called a sketch. These methods can preserve structural properties of the input matrix, such as positive-semidefiniteness, and they can produce approximations with a user-specified rank. The algorithms are simple, accurate, numerically stable, and provably correct. Moreover, each method is accompanied by an informative error bound that allows users to select parameters a priori to achieve a given approximation quality. These claims are supported by numerical experiments with real and synthetic data.
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