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There is an abundance of prior research on the optimization of production systems, but there is a research gap when it comes to optimizing which components should be included in a design, and how they should be connected. To overcome this gap, a novel approach is presented for topology optimization of production systems using a genetic algorithm (GA). This GA employs similarity-based mutation and recombination for the creation of offspring, and discrete-event simulation for fitness evaluation. To reduce computational cost, an extension to the GA is presented in which a neural network functions as a surrogate model for simulation. Three types of neural networks are compared, and the type most effective as a surrogate model is chosen based on its optimization performance and computational cost. Both the unassisted GA and neural network-assisted GA are applied to an industrial case study and a scalability case study. These show that both approaches are effective at finding the optimal solution in industrial settings, and both scale well as the number of potential solutions increases, with the neural network-assisted GA having the better scalability of the two.

We revisit the question of whether the strong law of large numbers (SLLN) holds uniformly in a rich family of distributions, culminating in a distribution-uniform generalization of the Marcinkiewicz-Zygmund SLLN. These results can be viewed as extensions of Chung's distribution-uniform SLLN to random variables with uniformly integrable $q^\text{th}$ absolute central moments for $0 < q < 2;\ q \neq 1$. Furthermore, we show that uniform integrability of the $q^\text{th}$ moment is both sufficient and necessary for the SLLN to hold uniformly at the Marcinkiewicz-Zygmund rate of $n^{1/q - 1}$. These proofs centrally rely on distribution-uniform analogues of some familiar almost sure convergence results including the Khintchine-Kolmogorov convergence theorem, Kolmogorov's three-series theorem, a stochastic generalization of Kronecker's lemma, and the Borel-Cantelli lemmas. The non-identically distributed case is also considered.

This paper develops a flexible and computationally efficient multivariate volatility model, which allows for dynamic conditional correlations and volatility spillover effects among financial assets. The new model has desirable properties such as identifiability and computational tractability for many assets. A sufficient condition of the strict stationarity is derived for the new process. Two quasi-maximum likelihood estimation methods are proposed for the new model with and without low-rank constraints on the coefficient matrices respectively, and the asymptotic properties for both estimators are established. Moreover, a Bayesian information criterion with selection consistency is developed for order selection, and the testing for volatility spillover effects is carefully discussed. The finite sample performance of the proposed methods is evaluated in simulation studies for small and moderate dimensions. The usefulness of the new model and its inference tools is illustrated by two empirical examples for 5 stock markets and 17 industry portfolios, respectively.

Partial differential equations (PDEs) have become an essential tool for modeling complex physical systems. Such equations are typically solved numerically via mesh-based methods, such as finite element methods, with solutions over the spatial domain. However, obtaining these solutions are often prohibitively costly, limiting the feasibility of exploring parameters in PDEs. In this paper, we propose an efficient emulator that simultaneously predicts the solutions over the spatial domain, with theoretical justification of its uncertainty quantification. The novelty of the proposed method lies in the incorporation of the mesh node coordinates into the statistical model. In particular, the proposed method segments the mesh nodes into multiple clusters via a Dirichlet process prior and fits Gaussian process models with the same hyperparameters in each of them. Most importantly, by revealing the underlying clustering structures, the proposed method can provide valuable insights into qualitative features of the resulting dynamics that can be used to guide further investigations. Real examples are demonstrated to show that our proposed method has smaller prediction errors than its main competitors, with competitive computation time, and identifies interesting clusters of mesh nodes that possess physical significance, such as satisfying boundary conditions. An R package for the proposed methodology is provided in an open repository.

One of the central quantities of probabilistic seismic risk assessment studies is the fragility curve, which represents the probability of failure of a mechanical structure conditional on a scalar measure derived from the seismic ground motion. Estimating such curves is a difficult task because, for many structures of interest, few data are available and the data are only binary; i.e., they indicate the state of the structure, failure or non-failure. This framework concerns complex equipments such as electrical devices encountered in industrial installations. In order to address this challenging framework a wide range of the methods in the literature rely on a parametric log-normal model. Bayesian approaches allow for efficient learning of the model parameters. However, the choice of the prior distribution has a non-negligible influence on the posterior distribution and, therefore, on any resulting estimate. We propose a thorough study of this parametric Bayesian estimation problem when the data are limited and binary. Using the reference prior theory as a support, we suggest an objective approach for the prior choice. This approach leads to the Jeffreys prior which is explicitly derived for this problem for the first time. The posterior distribution is proven to be proper (i.e., it integrates to unity) with the Jeffreys prior and improper with some classical priors from the literature. The posterior distribution with the Jeffreys prior is also shown to vanish at the boundaries of the parameters domain, so sampling the posterior distribution of the parameters does not produce anomalously small or large values. Therefore, this does not produce degenerate fragility curves such as unit-step functions and the Jeffreys prior leads to robust credibility intervals. The numerical results obtained on two different case studies, including an industrial case, illustrate the theoretical predictions.

Using validated numerical methods, interval arithmetic and Taylor models, we propose a certified predictor-corrector loop for tracking zeros of polynomial systems with a parameter. We provide a Rust implementation which shows tremendous improvement over existing software for certified path tracking.

SDRDPy is a desktop application that allows experts an intuitive graphic and tabular representation of the knowledge extracted by any supervised descriptive rule discovery algorithm. The application is able to provide an analysis of the data showing the relevant information of the data set and the relationship between the rules, data and the quality measures associated for each rule regardless of the tool where algorithm has been executed. All of the information is presented in a user-friendly application in order to facilitate expert analysis and also the exportation of reports in different formats.

It is well-known that decision-making problems from stochastic control can be formulated by means of forward-backward stochastic differential equation (FBSDE). Recently, the authors of Ji et al. 2022 proposed an efficient deep learning-based algorithm which was based on the stochastic maximum principle (SMP). In this paper, we provide a convergence result for this deep SMP-BSDE algorithm and compare its performance with other existing methods. In particular, by adopting a similar strategy as in Han and Long 2020, we derive a posteriori error estimate, and show that the total approximation error can be bounded by the value of the loss functional and the discretization error. We present numerical examples for high-dimensional stochastic control problems, both in case of drift- and diffusion control, which showcase superior performance compared to existing algorithms.

The goal of explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) is to generate human-interpretable explanations, but there are no computationally precise theories of how humans interpret AI generated explanations. The lack of theory means that validation of XAI must be done empirically, on a case-by-case basis, which prevents systematic theory-building in XAI. We propose a psychological theory of how humans draw conclusions from saliency maps, the most common form of XAI explanation, which for the first time allows for precise prediction of explainee inference conditioned on explanation. Our theory posits that absent explanation humans expect the AI to make similar decisions to themselves, and that they interpret an explanation by comparison to the explanations they themselves would give. Comparison is formalized via Shepard's universal law of generalization in a similarity space, a classic theory from cognitive science. A pre-registered user study on AI image classifications with saliency map explanations demonstrate that our theory quantitatively matches participants' predictions of the AI.

We derive information-theoretic generalization bounds for supervised learning algorithms based on the information contained in predictions rather than in the output of the training algorithm. These bounds improve over the existing information-theoretic bounds, are applicable to a wider range of algorithms, and solve two key challenges: (a) they give meaningful results for deterministic algorithms and (b) they are significantly easier to estimate. We show experimentally that the proposed bounds closely follow the generalization gap in practical scenarios for deep learning.