Detecting and measuring confounding effects from data is a key challenge in causal inference. Existing methods frequently assume causal sufficiency, disregarding the presence of unobserved confounding variables. Causal sufficiency is both unrealistic and empirically untestable. Additionally, existing methods make strong parametric assumptions about the underlying causal generative process to guarantee the identifiability of confounding variables. Relaxing the causal sufficiency and parametric assumptions and leveraging recent advancements in causal discovery and confounding analysis with non-i.i.d. data, we propose a comprehensive approach for detecting and measuring confounding. We consider various definitions of confounding and introduce tailored methodologies to achieve three objectives: (i) detecting and measuring confounding among a set of variables, (ii) separating observed and unobserved confounding effects, and (iii) understanding the relative strengths of confounding bias between different sets of variables. We present useful properties of a confounding measure and present measures that satisfy those properties. Empirical results support the theoretical analysis.
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Neural contextual biasing allows speech recognition models to leverage contextually relevant information, leading to improved transcription accuracy. However, the biasing mechanism is typically based on a cross-attention module between the audio and a catalogue of biasing entries, which means computational complexity can pose severe practical limitations on the size of the biasing catalogue and consequently on accuracy improvements. This work proposes an approximation to cross-attention scoring based on vector quantization and enables compute- and memory-efficient use of large biasing catalogues. We propose to use this technique jointly with a retrieval based contextual biasing approach. First, we use an efficient quantized retrieval module to shortlist biasing entries by grounding them on audio. Then we use retrieved entries for biasing. Since the proposed approach is agnostic to the biasing method, we investigate using full cross-attention, LLM prompting, and a combination of the two. We show that retrieval based shortlisting allows the system to efficiently leverage biasing catalogues of several thousands of entries, resulting in up to 71% relative error rate reduction in personal entity recognition. At the same time, the proposed approximation algorithm reduces compute time by 20% and memory usage by 85-95%, for lists of up to one million entries, when compared to standard dot-product cross-attention.
Procedurally generated levels created by machine learning models can be unsolvable without further editing. Various methods have been developed to automatically repair these levels by enforcing hard constraints during the post-processing step. However, as levels increase in size, these constraint-based repairs become increasingly slow. This paper proposes using explainability methods to identify specific regions of a level that contribute to its unsolvability. By assigning higher weights to these regions, constraint-based solvers can prioritize these problematic areas, enabling more efficient repairs. Our results, tested across three games, demonstrate that this approach can help to repair procedurally generated levels faster.
Gaussian graphical regressions have emerged as a powerful approach for regressing the precision matrix of a Gaussian graphical model on covariates, which, unlike traditional Gaussian graphical models, can help determine how graphs are modulated by high dimensional subject-level covariates, and recover both the population-level and subject-level graphs. To fit the model, a multi-task learning approach {achieves} %has been shown to result in lower error rates compared to node-wise regressions. However, due to the high complexity and dimensionality of the Gaussian graphical regression problem, the important task of statistical inference remains unexplored. We propose a class of debiased estimators based on multi-task learners for statistical inference in Gaussian graphical regressions. We show that debiasing can be performed quickly and separately for the multi-task learners. In a key debiasing step {that estimates} %involving the estimation of the inverse covariance matrix, we propose a novel {projection technique} %diagonalization approach that dramatically reduces computational costs {in optimization} to scale only with the sample size $n$. We show that our debiased estimators enjoy a fast convergence rate and asymptotically follow a normal distribution, enabling valid statistical inference such as constructing confidence intervals and performing hypothesis testing. Simulation studies confirm the practical utility of the proposed approach, and we further apply it to analyze gene co-expression graph data from a brain cancer study, revealing meaningful biological relationships.
Using statistical learning methods to analyze stochastic simulation outputs can significantly enhance decision-making by uncovering relationships between different simulated systems and between a system's inputs and outputs. We focus on clustering multivariate empirical distributions of simulation outputs to identify patterns and trade-offs among performance measures. We present a novel agglomerative clustering algorithm that utilizes the regularized Wasserstein distance to cluster these multivariate empirical distributions. This framework has several important use cases, including anomaly detection, pre-optimization, and online monitoring. In numerical experiments involving a call-center model, we demonstrate how this methodology can identify staffing plans that yield similar performance outcomes and inform policies for intervening when queue lengths signal potentially worsening system performance.
Kernel methods underpin many of the most successful approaches in data science and statistics, and they allow representing probability measures as elements of a reproducing kernel Hilbert space without loss of information. Recently, the kernel Stein discrepancy (KSD), which combines Stein's method with the flexibility of kernel techniques, gained considerable attention. Through the Stein operator, KSD allows the construction of powerful goodness-of-fit tests where it is sufficient to know the target distribution up to a multiplicative constant. However, the typical U- and V-statistic-based KSD estimators suffer from a quadratic runtime complexity, which hinders their application in large-scale settings. In this work, we propose a Nystr\"om-based KSD acceleration -- with runtime $\mathcal O\left(mn+m^3\right)$ for $n$ samples and $m\ll n$ Nystr\"om points -- , show its $\sqrt{n}$-consistency with a classical sub-Gaussian assumption, and demonstrate its applicability for goodness-of-fit testing on a suite of benchmarks.
As data emerges as a vital driver of technological and economic advancements, a key challenge is accurately quantifying its value in algorithmic decision-making. The Shapley value, a well-established concept from cooperative game theory, has been widely adopted to assess the contribution of individual data sources in supervised machine learning. However, its symmetry axiom assumes all players in the cooperative game are homogeneous, which overlooks the complex structures and dependencies present in real-world datasets. To address this limitation, we extend the traditional data Shapley framework to asymmetric data Shapley, making it flexible enough to incorporate inherent structures within the datasets for structure-aware data valuation. We also introduce an efficient $k$-nearest neighbor-based algorithm for its exact computation. We demonstrate the practical applicability of our framework across various machine learning tasks and data market contexts. The code is available at: //github.com/xzheng01/Asymmetric-Data-Shapley.
The adaptive processing of structured data is a long-standing research topic in machine learning that investigates how to automatically learn a mapping from a structured input to outputs of various nature. Recently, there has been an increasing interest in the adaptive processing of graphs, which led to the development of different neural network-based methodologies. In this thesis, we take a different route and develop a Bayesian Deep Learning framework for graph learning. The dissertation begins with a review of the principles over which most of the methods in the field are built, followed by a study on graph classification reproducibility issues. We then proceed to bridge the basic ideas of deep learning for graphs with the Bayesian world, by building our deep architectures in an incremental fashion. This framework allows us to consider graphs with discrete and continuous edge features, producing unsupervised embeddings rich enough to reach the state of the art on several classification tasks. Our approach is also amenable to a Bayesian nonparametric extension that automatizes the choice of almost all model's hyper-parameters. Two real-world applications demonstrate the efficacy of deep learning for graphs. The first concerns the prediction of information-theoretic quantities for molecular simulations with supervised neural models. After that, we exploit our Bayesian models to solve a malware-classification task while being robust to intra-procedural code obfuscation techniques. We conclude the dissertation with an attempt to blend the best of the neural and Bayesian worlds together. The resulting hybrid model is able to predict multimodal distributions conditioned on input graphs, with the consequent ability to model stochasticity and uncertainty better than most works. Overall, we aim to provide a Bayesian perspective into the articulated research field of deep learning for graphs.
Recent contrastive representation learning methods rely on estimating mutual information (MI) between multiple views of an underlying context. E.g., we can derive multiple views of a given image by applying data augmentation, or we can split a sequence into views comprising the past and future of some step in the sequence. Contrastive lower bounds on MI are easy to optimize, but have a strong underestimation bias when estimating large amounts of MI. We propose decomposing the full MI estimation problem into a sum of smaller estimation problems by splitting one of the views into progressively more informed subviews and by applying the chain rule on MI between the decomposed views. This expression contains a sum of unconditional and conditional MI terms, each measuring modest chunks of the total MI, which facilitates approximation via contrastive bounds. To maximize the sum, we formulate a contrastive lower bound on the conditional MI which can be approximated efficiently. We refer to our general approach as Decomposed Estimation of Mutual Information (DEMI). We show that DEMI can capture a larger amount of MI than standard non-decomposed contrastive bounds in a synthetic setting, and learns better representations in a vision domain and for dialogue generation.
Embedding entities and relations into a continuous multi-dimensional vector space have become the dominant method for knowledge graph embedding in representation learning. However, most existing models ignore to represent hierarchical knowledge, such as the similarities and dissimilarities of entities in one domain. We proposed to learn a Domain Representations over existing knowledge graph embedding models, such that entities that have similar attributes are organized into the same domain. Such hierarchical knowledge of domains can give further evidence in link prediction. Experimental results show that domain embeddings give a significant improvement over the most recent state-of-art baseline knowledge graph embedding models.
Multi-relation Question Answering is a challenging task, due to the requirement of elaborated analysis on questions and reasoning over multiple fact triples in knowledge base. In this paper, we present a novel model called Interpretable Reasoning Network that employs an interpretable, hop-by-hop reasoning process for question answering. The model dynamically decides which part of an input question should be analyzed at each hop; predicts a relation that corresponds to the current parsed results; utilizes the predicted relation to update the question representation and the state of the reasoning process; and then drives the next-hop reasoning. Experiments show that our model yields state-of-the-art results on two datasets. More interestingly, the model can offer traceable and observable intermediate predictions for reasoning analysis and failure diagnosis, thereby allowing manual manipulation in predicting the final answer.
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