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A treatment policy defines when and what treatments are applied to affect some outcome of interest. Data-driven decision-making requires the ability to predict what happens if a policy is changed. Existing methods that predict how the outcome evolves under different scenarios assume that the tentative sequences of future treatments are fixed in advance, while in practice the treatments are determined stochastically by a policy and may depend, for example, on the efficiency of previous treatments. Therefore, the current methods are not applicable if the treatment policy is unknown or a counterfactual analysis is needed. To handle these limitations, we model the treatments and outcomes jointly in continuous time, by combining Gaussian processes and point processes. Our model enables the estimation of a treatment policy from observational sequences of treatments and outcomes, and it can predict the interventional and counterfactual progression of the outcome after an intervention on the treatment policy (in contrast with the causal effect of a single treatment). We show with real-world and semi-synthetic data on blood glucose progression that our method can answer causal queries more accurately than existing alternatives.

The proliferation of the Internet of Things (IoT) has led to the emergence of crowdsensing applications, where a multitude of interconnected devices collaboratively collect and analyze data. Ensuring the authenticity and integrity of the data collected by these devices is crucial for reliable decision-making and maintaining trust in the system. Traditional authentication methods are often vulnerable to attacks or can be easily duplicated, posing challenges to securing crowdsensing applications. Besides, current solutions leveraging device behavior are mostly focused on device identification, which is a simpler task than authentication. To address these issues, an individual IoT device authentication framework based on hardware behavior fingerprinting and Transformer autoencoders is proposed in this work. This solution leverages the inherent imperfections and variations in IoT device hardware to differentiate between devices with identical specifications. By monitoring and analyzing the behavior of key hardware components, such as the CPU, GPU, RAM, and Storage on devices, unique fingerprints for each device are created. The performance samples are considered as time series data and used to train anomaly detection transformer models, one per device. Then, the framework is validated within a spectrum crowdsensing system leveraging Raspberry Pi devices. After a pool of experiments, the model from each device is able to individually authenticate it between the 45 devices employed for validation. An average True Positive Rate (TPR) of 0.74+-0.13 and an average maximum False Positive Rate (FPR) of 0.06+-0.09 demonstrate the effectiveness of this approach in enhancing authentication, security, and trust in crowdsensing applications.

In several practical applications of federated learning (FL), the clients are highly heterogeneous in terms of both their data and compute resources, and therefore enforcing the same model architecture for each client is very limiting. Moreover, the need for uncertainty quantification and data privacy constraints are often particularly amplified for clients that have limited local data. This paper presents a unified FL framework to simultaneously address all these constraints and concerns, based on training customized local Bayesian models that learn well even in the absence of large local datasets. A Bayesian framework provides a natural way of incorporating supervision in the form of prior distributions. We use priors in the functional (output) space of the networks to facilitate collaboration across heterogeneous clients. Moreover, formal differential privacy guarantees are provided for this framework. Experiments on standard FL datasets demonstrate that our approach outperforms strong baselines in both homogeneous and heterogeneous settings and under strict privacy constraints, while also providing characterizations of model uncertainties.

We explore algorithms to select actions in the causal bandit setting where the learner can choose to intervene on a set of random variables related by a causal graph, and the learner sequentially chooses interventions and observes a sample from the interventional distribution. The learner's goal is to quickly find the intervention, among all interventions on observable variables, that maximizes the expectation of an outcome variable. We depart from previous literature by assuming no knowledge of the causal graph except that latent confounders between the outcome and its ancestors are not present. We first show that the unknown graph problem can be exponentially hard in the parents of the outcome. To remedy this, we adopt an additional additive assumption on the outcome which allows us to solve the problem by casting it as an additive combinatorial linear bandit problem with full-bandit feedback. We propose a novel action-elimination algorithm for this setting, show how to apply this algorithm to the causal bandit problem, provide sample complexity bounds, and empirically validate our findings on a suite of randomly generated causal models, effectively showing that one does not need to explicitly learn the parents of the outcome to identify the best intervention.

Despite extraordinary progress, current machine learning systems have been shown to be brittle against adversarial examples: seemingly innocuous but carefully crafted perturbations of test examples that cause machine learning predictors to misclassify. Can we learn predictors robust to adversarial examples? and how? There has been much empirical interest in this contemporary challenge in machine learning, and in this thesis, we address it from a theoretical perspective. In this thesis, we explore what robustness properties can we hope to guarantee against adversarial examples and develop an understanding of how to algorithmically guarantee them. We illustrate the need to go beyond traditional approaches and principles such as empirical risk minimization and uniform convergence, and make contributions that can be categorized as follows: (1) introducing problem formulations capturing aspects of emerging practical challenges in robust learning, (2) designing new learning algorithms with provable robustness guarantees, and (3) characterizing the complexity of robust learning and fundamental limitations on the performance of any algorithm.

Driver distraction causes a significant number of traffic accidents every year, resulting in economic losses and casualties. Currently, the level of automation in commercial vehicles is far from completely unmanned, and drivers still play an important role in operating and controlling the vehicle. Therefore, driver distraction behavior detection is crucial for road safety. At present, driver distraction detection primarily relies on traditional Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) and supervised learning methods. However, there are still challenges such as the high cost of labeled datasets, limited ability to capture high-level semantic information, and weak generalization performance. In order to solve these problems, this paper proposes a new self-supervised learning method based on masked image modeling for driver distraction behavior detection. Firstly, a self-supervised learning framework for masked image modeling (MIM) is introduced to solve the serious human and material consumption issues caused by dataset labeling. Secondly, the Swin Transformer is employed as an encoder. Performance is enhanced by reconfiguring the Swin Transformer block and adjusting the distribution of the number of window multi-head self-attention (W-MSA) and shifted window multi-head self-attention (SW-MSA) detection heads across all stages, which leads to model more lightening. Finally, various data augmentation strategies are used along with the best random masking strategy to strengthen the model's recognition and generalization ability. Test results on a large-scale driver distraction behavior dataset show that the self-supervised learning method proposed in this paper achieves an accuracy of 99.60%, approximating the excellent performance of advanced supervised learning methods.

The essence of multivariate sequential learning is all about how to extract dependencies in data. These data sets, such as hourly medical records in intensive care units and multi-frequency phonetic time series, often time exhibit not only strong serial dependencies in the individual components (the "marginal" memory) but also non-negligible memories in the cross-sectional dependencies (the "joint" memory). Because of the multivariate complexity in the evolution of the joint distribution that underlies the data generating process, we take a data-driven approach and construct a novel recurrent network architecture, termed Memory-Gated Recurrent Networks (mGRN), with gates explicitly regulating two distinct types of memories: the marginal memory and the joint memory. Through a combination of comprehensive simulation studies and empirical experiments on a range of public datasets, we show that our proposed mGRN architecture consistently outperforms state-of-the-art architectures targeting multivariate time series.

This paper focuses on the expected difference in borrower's repayment when there is a change in the lender's credit decisions. Classical estimators overlook the confounding effects and hence the estimation error can be magnificent. As such, we propose another approach to construct the estimators such that the error can be greatly reduced. The proposed estimators are shown to be unbiased, consistent, and robust through a combination of theoretical analysis and numerical testing. Moreover, we compare the power of estimating the causal quantities between the classical estimators and the proposed estimators. The comparison is tested across a wide range of models, including linear regression models, tree-based models, and neural network-based models, under different simulated datasets that exhibit different levels of causality, different degrees of nonlinearity, and different distributional properties. Most importantly, we apply our approaches to a large observational dataset provided by a global technology firm that operates in both the e-commerce and the lending business. We find that the relative reduction of estimation error is strikingly substantial if the causal effects are accounted for correctly.

Deep Learning algorithms have achieved the state-of-the-art performance for Image Classification and have been used even in security-critical applications, such as biometric recognition systems and self-driving cars. However, recent works have shown those algorithms, which can even surpass the human capabilities, are vulnerable to adversarial examples. In Computer Vision, adversarial examples are images containing subtle perturbations generated by malicious optimization algorithms in order to fool classifiers. As an attempt to mitigate these vulnerabilities, numerous countermeasures have been constantly proposed in literature. Nevertheless, devising an efficient defense mechanism has proven to be a difficult task, since many approaches have already shown to be ineffective to adaptive attackers. Thus, this self-containing paper aims to provide all readerships with a review of the latest research progress on Adversarial Machine Learning in Image Classification, however with a defender's perspective. Here, novel taxonomies for categorizing adversarial attacks and defenses are introduced and discussions about the existence of adversarial examples are provided. Further, in contrast to exisiting surveys, it is also given relevant guidance that should be taken into consideration by researchers when devising and evaluating defenses. Finally, based on the reviewed literature, it is discussed some promising paths for future research.

Causal inference is a critical research topic across many domains, such as statistics, computer science, education, public policy and economics, for decades. Nowadays, estimating causal effect from observational data has become an appealing research direction owing to the large amount of available data and low budget requirement, compared with randomized controlled trials. Embraced with the rapidly developed machine learning area, various causal effect estimation methods for observational data have sprung up. In this survey, we provide a comprehensive review of causal inference methods under the potential outcome framework, one of the well known causal inference framework. The methods are divided into two categories depending on whether they require all three assumptions of the potential outcome framework or not. For each category, both the traditional statistical methods and the recent machine learning enhanced methods are discussed and compared. The plausible applications of these methods are also presented, including the applications in advertising, recommendation, medicine and so on. Moreover, the commonly used benchmark datasets as well as the open-source codes are also summarized, which facilitate researchers and practitioners to explore, evaluate and apply the causal inference methods.