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There are two reasons why uncertainty about the future yield of investments may not be adequately described by Probability Theory. The first one is due to unique or nearly-unique events, that either never realized or occurred too seldom for probabilities to be reliable. The second one arises when when one fears that something may happen, that one is not even able to figure out, e.g., if one asks: "Climate change, financial crises, pandemic, war, what next?" In both cases, simple one-to-one causal mappings between available alternatives and possible consequences eventually melt down. However, such destructions reflect into the changing narratives of business executives, employees and other stakeholders in specific, identifiable and differential ways. In particular, texts such as consultants' reports or letters to shareholders can be analysed in order to detect the impact of both sorts of uncertainty onto the causal relations that normally guide decision-making. We propose structural measures of causal mappings as a means to measure non-probabilistic uncertainty, eventually suggesting that automated text analysis can greatly augment the possibilities offered by these techniques. Prospective applications may concern statistical institutes, stock market traders, as well as businesses wishing to compare their own vision to those prevailing in their industry.

Recent years have seen progress beyond domain-specific sound separation for speech or music towards universal sound separation for arbitrary sounds. Prior work on universal sound separation has investigated separating a target sound out of an audio mixture given a text query. Such text-queried sound separation systems provide a natural and scalable interface for specifying arbitrary target sounds. However, supervised text-queried sound separation systems require costly labeled audio-text pairs for training. Moreover, the audio provided in existing datasets is often recorded in a controlled environment, causing a considerable generalization gap to noisy audio in the wild. In this work, we aim to approach text-queried universal sound separation by using only unlabeled data. We propose to leverage the visual modality as a bridge to learn the desired audio-textual correspondence. The proposed CLIPSep model first encodes the input query into a query vector using the contrastive language-image pretraining (CLIP) model, and the query vector is then used to condition an audio separation model to separate out the target sound. While the model is trained on image-audio pairs extracted from unlabeled videos, at test time we can instead query the model with text inputs in a zero-shot setting, thanks to the joint language-image embedding learned by the CLIP model. Further, videos in the wild often contain off-screen sounds and background noise that may hinder the model from learning the desired audio-textual correspondence. To address this problem, we further propose an approach called noise invariant training for training a query-based sound separation model on noisy data. Experimental results show that the proposed models successfully learn text-queried universal sound separation using only noisy unlabeled videos, even achieving competitive performance against a supervised model in some settings.

We introduce MegaPose, a method to estimate the 6D pose of novel objects, that is, objects unseen during training. At inference time, the method only assumes knowledge of (i) a region of interest displaying the object in the image and (ii) a CAD model of the observed object. The contributions of this work are threefold. First, we present a 6D pose refiner based on a render&compare strategy which can be applied to novel objects. The shape and coordinate system of the novel object are provided as inputs to the network by rendering multiple synthetic views of the object's CAD model. Second, we introduce a novel approach for coarse pose estimation which leverages a network trained to classify whether the pose error between a synthetic rendering and an observed image of the same object can be corrected by the refiner. Third, we introduce a large-scale synthetic dataset of photorealistic images of thousands of objects with diverse visual and shape properties and show that this diversity is crucial to obtain good generalization performance on novel objects. We train our approach on this large synthetic dataset and apply it without retraining to hundreds of novel objects in real images from several pose estimation benchmarks. Our approach achieves state-of-the-art performance on the ModelNet and YCB-Video datasets. An extensive evaluation on the 7 core datasets of the BOP challenge demonstrates that our approach achieves performance competitive with existing approaches that require access to the target objects during training. Code, dataset and trained models are available on the project page: //megapose6d.github.io/.

Continuous long-term monitoring of motor health is crucial for the early detection of abnormalities such as bearing faults (up to 51% of motor failures are attributed to bearing faults). Despite numerous methodologies proposed for bearing fault detection, most of them require normal (healthy) and abnormal (faulty) data for training. Even with the recent deep learning (DL) methodologies trained on the labeled data from the same machine, the classification accuracy significantly deteriorates when one or few conditions are altered. Furthermore, their performance suffers significantly or may entirely fail when they are tested on another machine with entirely different healthy and faulty signal patterns. To address this need, in this pilot study, we propose a zero-shot bearing fault detection method that can detect any fault on a new (target) machine regardless of the working conditions, sensor parameters, or fault characteristics. To accomplish this objective, a 1D Operational Generative Adversarial Network (Op-GAN) first characterizes the transition between normal and fault vibration signals of (a) source machine(s) under various conditions, sensor parameters, and fault types. Then for a target machine, the potential faulty signals can be generated, and over its actual healthy and synthesized faulty signals, a compact, and lightweight 1D Self-ONN fault detector can then be trained to detect the real faulty condition in real time whenever it occurs. To validate the proposed approach, a new benchmark dataset is created using two different motors working under different conditions and sensor locations. Experimental results demonstrate that this novel approach can accurately detect any bearing fault achieving an average recall rate of around 89% and 95% on two target machines regardless of its type, severity, and location.

We propose a new self-supervised method for pre-training the backbone of deep perception models operating on point clouds. The core idea is to train the model on a pretext task which is the reconstruction of the surface on which the 3D points are sampled, and to use the underlying latent vectors as input to the perception head. The intuition is that if the network is able to reconstruct the scene surface, given only sparse input points, then it probably also captures some fragments of semantic information, that can be used to boost an actual perception task. This principle has a very simple formulation, which makes it both easy to implement and widely applicable to a large range of 3D sensors and deep networks performing semantic segmentation or object detection. In fact, it supports a single-stream pipeline, as opposed to most contrastive learning approaches, allowing training on limited resources. We conducted extensive experiments on various autonomous driving datasets, involving very different kinds of lidars, for both semantic segmentation and object detection. The results show the effectiveness of our method to learn useful representations without any annotation, compared to existing approaches. Code is available at \href{//github.com/valeoai/ALSO}{github.com/valeoai/ALSO}

Behaviors of the synthetic characters in current military simulations are limited since they are generally generated by rule-based and reactive computational models with minimal intelligence. Such computational models cannot adapt to reflect the experience of the characters, resulting in brittle intelligence for even the most effective behavior models devised via costly and labor-intensive processes. Observation-based behavior model adaptation that leverages machine learning and the experience of synthetic entities in combination with appropriate prior knowledge can address the issues in the existing computational behavior models to create a better training experience in military training simulations. In this paper, we introduce a framework that aims to create autonomous synthetic characters that can perform coherent sequences of believable behavior while being aware of human trainees and their needs within a training simulation. This framework brings together three mutually complementary components. The first component is a Unity-based simulation environment - Rapid Integration and Development Environment (RIDE) - supporting One World Terrain (OWT) models and capable of running and supporting machine learning experiments. The second is Shiva, a novel multi-agent reinforcement and imitation learning framework that can interface with a variety of simulation environments, and that can additionally utilize a variety of learning algorithms. The final component is the Sigma Cognitive Architecture that will augment the behavior models with symbolic and probabilistic reasoning capabilities. We have successfully created proof-of-concept behavior models leveraging this framework on realistic terrain as an essential step towards bringing machine learning into military simulations.

It is important to detect anomalous inputs when deploying machine learning systems. The use of larger and more complex inputs in deep learning magnifies the difficulty of distinguishing between anomalous and in-distribution examples. At the same time, diverse image and text data are available in enormous quantities. We propose leveraging these data to improve deep anomaly detection by training anomaly detectors against an auxiliary dataset of outliers, an approach we call Outlier Exposure (OE). This enables anomaly detectors to generalize and detect unseen anomalies. In extensive experiments on natural language processing and small- and large-scale vision tasks, we find that Outlier Exposure significantly improves detection performance. We also observe that cutting-edge generative models trained on CIFAR-10 may assign higher likelihoods to SVHN images than to CIFAR-10 images; we use OE to mitigate this issue. We also analyze the flexibility and robustness of Outlier Exposure, and identify characteristics of the auxiliary dataset that improve performance.

Vision-based vehicle detection approaches achieve incredible success in recent years with the development of deep convolutional neural network (CNN). However, existing CNN based algorithms suffer from the problem that the convolutional features are scale-sensitive in object detection task but it is common that traffic images and videos contain vehicles with a large variance of scales. In this paper, we delve into the source of scale sensitivity, and reveal two key issues: 1) existing RoI pooling destroys the structure of small scale objects, 2) the large intra-class distance for a large variance of scales exceeds the representation capability of a single network. Based on these findings, we present a scale-insensitive convolutional neural network (SINet) for fast detecting vehicles with a large variance of scales. First, we present a context-aware RoI pooling to maintain the contextual information and original structure of small scale objects. Second, we present a multi-branch decision network to minimize the intra-class distance of features. These lightweight techniques bring zero extra time complexity but prominent detection accuracy improvement. The proposed techniques can be equipped with any deep network architectures and keep them trained end-to-end. Our SINet achieves state-of-the-art performance in terms of accuracy and speed (up to 37 FPS) on the KITTI benchmark and a new highway dataset, which contains a large variance of scales and extremely small objects.

This paper reports Deep LOGISMOS approach to 3D tumor segmentation by incorporating boundary information derived from deep contextual learning to LOGISMOS - layered optimal graph image segmentation of multiple objects and surfaces. Accurate and reliable tumor segmentation is essential to tumor growth analysis and treatment selection. A fully convolutional network (FCN), UNet, is first trained using three adjacent 2D patches centered at the tumor, providing contextual UNet segmentation and probability map for each 2D patch. The UNet segmentation is then refined by Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM) and morphological operations. The refined UNet segmentation is used to provide the initial shape boundary to build a segmentation graph. The cost for each node of the graph is determined by the UNet probability maps. Finally, a max-flow algorithm is employed to find the globally optimal solution thus obtaining the final segmentation. For evaluation, we applied the method to pancreatic tumor segmentation on a dataset of 51 CT scans, among which 30 scans were used for training and 21 for testing. With Deep LOGISMOS, DICE Similarity Coefficient (DSC) and Relative Volume Difference (RVD) reached 83.2+-7.8% and 18.6+-17.4% respectively, both are significantly improved (p<0.05) compared with contextual UNet and/or LOGISMOS alone.