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COVID-19 pandemic has an unprecedented impact all over the world since early 2020. During this public health crisis, reliable forecasting of the disease becomes critical for resource allocation and administrative planning. The results from compartmental models such as SIR and SEIR are popularly referred by CDC and news media. With more and more COVID-19 data becoming available, we examine the following question: Can a direct data-driven approach without modeling the disease spreading dynamics outperform the well referred compartmental models and their variants? In this paper, we show the possibility. It is observed that as COVID-19 spreads at different speed and scale in different geographic regions, it is highly likely that similar progression patterns are shared among these regions within different time periods. This intuition lead us to develop a new neural forecasting model, called Attention Crossing Time Series (\textbf{ACTS}), that makes forecasts via comparing patterns across time series obtained from multiple regions. The attention mechanism originally developed for natural language processing can be leveraged and generalized to materialize this idea. Among 13 out of 18 testings including forecasting newly confirmed cases, hospitalizations and deaths, \textbf{ACTS} outperforms all the leading COVID-19 forecasters highlighted by CDC.

The accurate and interpretable prediction of future events in time-series data often requires the capturing of representative patterns (or referred to as states) underpinning the observed data. To this end, most existing studies focus on the representation and recognition of states, but ignore the changing transitional relations among them. In this paper, we present evolutionary state graph, a dynamic graph structure designed to systematically represent the evolving relations (edges) among states (nodes) along time. We conduct analysis on the dynamic graphs constructed from the time-series data and show that changes on the graph structures (e.g., edges connecting certain state nodes) can inform the occurrences of events (i.e., time-series fluctuation). Inspired by this, we propose a novel graph neural network model, Evolutionary State Graph Network (EvoNet), to encode the evolutionary state graph for accurate and interpretable time-series event prediction. Specifically, Evolutionary State Graph Network models both the node-level (state-to-state) and graph-level (segment-to-segment) propagation, and captures the node-graph (state-to-segment) interactions over time. Experimental results based on five real-world datasets show that our approach not only achieves clear improvements compared with 11 baselines, but also provides more insights towards explaining the results of event predictions.

Knowledge graphs (KGs) of real-world facts about entities and their relationships are useful resources for a variety of natural language processing tasks. However, because knowledge graphs are typically incomplete, it is useful to perform knowledge graph completion or link prediction, i.e. predict whether a relationship not in the knowledge graph is likely to be true. This paper serves as a comprehensive survey of embedding models of entities and relationships for knowledge graph completion, summarizing up-to-date experimental results on standard benchmark datasets and pointing out potential future research directions.

Modeling multivariate time series has long been a subject that has attracted researchers from a diverse range of fields including economics, finance, and traffic. A basic assumption behind multivariate time series forecasting is that its variables depend on one another but, upon looking closely, it is fair to say that existing methods fail to fully exploit latent spatial dependencies between pairs of variables. In recent years, meanwhile, graph neural networks (GNNs) have shown high capability in handling relational dependencies. GNNs require well-defined graph structures for information propagation which means they cannot be applied directly for multivariate time series where the dependencies are not known in advance. In this paper, we propose a general graph neural network framework designed specifically for multivariate time series data. Our approach automatically extracts the uni-directed relations among variables through a graph learning module, into which external knowledge like variable attributes can be easily integrated. A novel mix-hop propagation layer and a dilated inception layer are further proposed to capture the spatial and temporal dependencies within the time series. The graph learning, graph convolution, and temporal convolution modules are jointly learned in an end-to-end framework. Experimental results show that our proposed model outperforms the state-of-the-art baseline methods on 3 of 4 benchmark datasets and achieves on-par performance with other approaches on two traffic datasets which provide extra structural information.

Graph Convolutional Networks (GCNs) have been widely used due to their outstanding performance in processing graph-structured data. However, the undirected graphs limit their application scope. In this paper, we extend spectral-based graph convolution to directed graphs by using first- and second-order proximity, which can not only retain the connection properties of the directed graph, but also expand the receptive field of the convolution operation. A new GCN model, called DGCN, is then designed to learn representations on the directed graph, leveraging both the first- and second-order proximity information. We empirically show the fact that GCNs working only with DGCNs can encode more useful information from graph and help achieve better performance when generalized to other models. Moreover, extensive experiments on citation networks and co-purchase datasets demonstrate the superiority of our model against the state-of-the-art methods.

Constituting highly informative network embeddings is an important tool for network analysis. It encodes network topology, along with other useful side information, into low-dimensional node-based feature representations that can be exploited by statistical modeling. This work focuses on learning context-aware network embeddings augmented with text data. We reformulate the network-embedding problem, and present two novel strategies to improve over traditional attention mechanisms: ($i$) a content-aware sparse attention module based on optimal transport, and ($ii$) a high-level attention parsing module. Our approach yields naturally sparse and self-normalized relational inference. It can capture long-term interactions between sequences, thus addressing the challenges faced by existing textual network embedding schemes. Extensive experiments are conducted to demonstrate our model can consistently outperform alternative state-of-the-art methods.

To understand a scene in depth not only involves locating/recognizing individual objects, but also requires to infer the relationships and interactions among them. However, since the distribution of real-world relationships is seriously unbalanced, existing methods perform quite poorly for the less frequent relationships. In this work, we find that the statistical correlations between object pairs and their relationships can effectively regularize semantic space and make prediction less ambiguous, and thus well address the unbalanced distribution issue. To achieve this, we incorporate these statistical correlations into deep neural networks to facilitate scene graph generation by developing a Knowledge-Embedded Routing Network. More specifically, we show that the statistical correlations between objects appearing in images and their relationships, can be explicitly represented by a structured knowledge graph, and a routing mechanism is learned to propagate messages through the graph to explore their interactions. Extensive experiments on the large-scale Visual Genome dataset demonstrate the superiority of the proposed method over current state-of-the-art competitors.

Network representation learning in low dimensional vector space has attracted considerable attention in both academic and industrial domains. Most real-world networks are dynamic with addition/deletion of nodes and edges. The existing graph embedding methods are designed for static networks and they cannot capture evolving patterns in a large dynamic network. In this paper, we propose a dynamic embedding method, dynnode2vec, based on the well-known graph embedding method node2vec. Node2vec is a random walk based embedding method for static networks. Applying static network embedding in dynamic settings has two crucial problems: 1) Generating random walks for every time step is time consuming 2) Embedding vector spaces in each timestamp are different. In order to tackle these challenges, dynnode2vec uses evolving random walks and initializes the current graph embedding with previous embedding vectors. We demonstrate the advantages of the proposed dynamic network embedding by conducting empirical evaluations on several large dynamic network datasets.

Recently, much advance has been made in image captioning, and an encoder-decoder framework has been adopted by all the state-of-the-art models. Under this framework, an input image is encoded by a convolutional neural network (CNN) and then translated into natural language with a recurrent neural network (RNN). The existing models counting on this framework merely employ one kind of CNNs, e.g., ResNet or Inception-X, which describe image contents from only one specific view point. Thus, the semantic meaning of an input image cannot be comprehensively understood, which restricts the performance of captioning. In this paper, in order to exploit the complementary information from multiple encoders, we propose a novel Recurrent Fusion Network (RFNet) for tackling image captioning. The fusion process in our model can exploit the interactions among the outputs of the image encoders and then generate new compact yet informative representations for the decoder. Experiments on the MSCOCO dataset demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed RFNet, which sets a new state-of-the-art for image captioning.

Classifying large scale networks into several categories and distinguishing them according to their fine structures is of great importance with several applications in real life. However, most studies of complex networks focus on properties of a single network but seldom on classification, clustering, and comparison between different networks, in which the network is treated as a whole. Due to the non-Euclidean properties of the data, conventional methods can hardly be applied on networks directly. In this paper, we propose a novel framework of complex network classifier (CNC) by integrating network embedding and convolutional neural network to tackle the problem of network classification. By training the classifiers on synthetic complex network data and real international trade network data, we show CNC can not only classify networks in a high accuracy and robustness, it can also extract the features of the networks automatically.