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Communication compression is an essential strategy for alleviating communication overhead by reducing the volume of information exchanged between computing nodes in large-scale distributed stochastic optimization. Although numerous algorithms with convergence guarantees have been obtained, the optimal performance limit under communication compression remains unclear. In this paper, we investigate the performance limit of distributed stochastic optimization algorithms employing communication compression. We focus on two main types of compressors, unbiased and contractive, and address the best-possible convergence rates one can obtain with these compressors. We establish the lower bounds for the convergence rates of distributed stochastic optimization in six different settings, combining strongly-convex, generally-convex, or non-convex functions with unbiased or contractive compressor types. To bridge the gap between lower bounds and existing algorithms' rates, we propose NEOLITHIC, a nearly optimal algorithm with compression that achieves the established lower bounds up to logarithmic factors under mild conditions. Extensive experimental results support our theoretical findings. This work provides insights into the theoretical limitations of existing compressors and motivates further research into fundamentally new compressor properties.

We consider a linear model which can have a large number of explanatory variables, the errors with an asymmetric distribution or some values of the explained variable are missing at random. In order to take in account these several situations, we consider the non parametric empirical likelihood (EL) estimation method. Because a constraint in EL contains an indicator function then a smoothed function instead of the indicator will be considered. Two smoothed expectile maximum EL methods are proposed, one of which will automatically select the explanatory variables. For each of the methods we obtain the convergence rate of the estimators and their asymptotic normality. The smoothed expectile empirical log-likelihood ratio process follow asymptotically a chi-square distribution and moreover the adaptive LASSO smoothed expectile maximum EL estimator satisfies the sparsity property which guarantees the automatic selection of zero model coefficients. In order to implement these methods, we propose four algorithms.

Originally introduced as a neural network for ensemble learning, mixture of experts (MoE) has recently become a fundamental building block of highly successful modern deep neural networks for heterogeneous data analysis in several applications, including those in machine learning, statistics, bioinformatics, economics, and medicine. Despite its popularity in practice, a satisfactory level of understanding of the convergence behavior of Gaussian-gated MoE parameter estimation is far from complete. The underlying reason for this challenge is the inclusion of covariates in the Gaussian gating and expert networks, which leads to their intrinsically complex interactions via partial differential equations with respect to their parameters. We address these issues by designing novel Voronoi loss functions to accurately capture heterogeneity in the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) for resolving parameter estimation in these models. Our results reveal distinct behaviors of the MLE under two settings: the first setting is when all the location parameters in the Gaussian gating are non-zeros while the second setting is when there exists at least one zero-valued location parameter. Notably, these behaviors can be characterized by the solvability of two different systems of polynomial equations. Finally, we conduct a simulation study to verify our theoretical results.

Several fundamental problems in science and engineering consist of global optimization tasks involving unknown high-dimensional (black-box) functions that map a set of controllable variables to the outcomes of an expensive experiment. Bayesian Optimization (BO) techniques are known to be effective in tackling global optimization problems using a relatively small number objective function evaluations, but their performance suffers when dealing with high-dimensional outputs. To overcome the major challenge of dimensionality, here we propose a deep learning framework for BO and sequential decision making based on bootstrapped ensembles of neural architectures with randomized priors. Using appropriate architecture choices, we show that the proposed framework can approximate functional relationships between design variables and quantities of interest, even in cases where the latter take values in high-dimensional vector spaces or even infinite-dimensional function spaces. In the context of BO, we augmented the proposed probabilistic surrogates with re-parameterized Monte Carlo approximations of multiple-point (parallel) acquisition functions, as well as methodological extensions for accommodating black-box constraints and multi-fidelity information sources. We test the proposed framework against state-of-the-art methods for BO and demonstrate superior performance across several challenging tasks with high-dimensional outputs, including a constrained multi-fidelity optimization task involving shape optimization of rotor blades in turbo-machinery.

The paper deals with the construction of a synthetic indicator of economic growth, obtained by projecting a quarterly measure of aggregate economic activity, namely gross domestic product (GDP), into the space spanned by a finite number of smooth principal components, representative of the medium-to-long-run component of economic growth of a high-dimensional time series, available at the monthly frequency. The smooth principal components result from applying a cross-sectional filter distilling the low-pass component of growth in real time. The outcome of the projection is a monthly nowcast of the medium-to-long-run component of GDP growth. After discussing the theoretical properties of the indicator, we deal with the assessment of its reliability and predictive validity with reference to a panel of macroeconomic U.S. time series.

A well-known problem when learning from user clicks are inherent biases prevalent in the data, such as position or trust bias. Click models are a common method for extracting information from user clicks, such as document relevance in web search, or to estimate click biases for downstream applications such as counterfactual learning-to-rank, ad placement, or fair ranking. Recent work shows that the current evaluation practices in the community fail to guarantee that a well-performing click model generalizes well to downstream tasks in which the ranking distribution differs from the training distribution, i.e., under covariate shift. In this work, we propose an evaluation metric based on conditional independence testing to detect a lack of robustness to covariate shift in click models. We introduce the concept of debiasedness and a metric for measuring it. We prove that debiasedness is a necessary condition for recovering unbiased and consistent relevance scores and for the invariance of click prediction under covariate shift. In extensive semi-synthetic experiments, we show that our proposed metric helps to predict the downstream performance of click models under covariate shift and is useful in an off-policy model selection setting.

In this paper, we study the identifiability and the estimation of the parameters of a copula-based multivariate model when the margins are unknown and are arbitrary, meaning that they can be continuous, discrete, or mixtures of continuous and discrete. When at least one margin is not continuous, the range of values determining the copula is not the entire unit square and this situation could lead to identifiability issues that are discussed here. Next, we propose estimation methods when the margins are unknown and arbitrary, using pseudo log-likelihood adapted to the case of discontinuities. In view of applications to large data sets, we also propose a pairwise composite pseudo log-likelihood. These methodologies can also be easily modified to cover the case of parametric margins. One of the main theoretical result is an extension to arbitrary distributions of known convergence results of rank-based statistics when the margins are continuous. As a by-product, under smoothness assumptions, we obtain that the asymptotic distribution of the estimation errors of our estimators are Gaussian. Finally, numerical experiments are presented to assess the finite sample performance of the estimators, and the usefulness of the proposed methodologies is illustrated with a copula-based regression model for hydrological data. The proposed estimation is implemented in the R package CopulaInference, together with a function for checking identifiability.

When an exposure of interest is confounded by unmeasured factors, an instrumental variable (IV) can be used to identify and estimate certain causal contrasts. Identification of the marginal average treatment effect (ATE) from IVs relies on strong untestable structural assumptions. When one is unwilling to assert such structure, IVs can nonetheless be used to construct bounds on the ATE. Famously, Balke and Pearl (1997) proved tight bounds on the ATE for a binary outcome, in a randomized trial with noncompliance and no covariate information. We demonstrate how these bounds remain useful in observational settings with baseline confounders of the IV, as well as randomized trials with measured baseline covariates. The resulting bounds on the ATE are non-smooth functionals, and thus standard nonparametric efficiency theory is not immediately applicable. To remedy this, we propose (1) under a novel margin condition, influence function-based estimators of the bounds that can attain parametric convergence rates when the nuisance functions are modeled flexibly, and (2) estimators of smooth approximations of these bounds. We propose extensions to continuous outcomes, explore finite sample properties in simulations, and illustrate the proposed estimators in a randomized field experiment studying the effects of canvassing on resulting voter turnout.

When estimating quantities and fields that are difficult to measure directly, such as the fluidity of ice, from point data sources, such as satellite altimetry, it is important to solve a numerical inverse problem that is formulated with Bayesian consistency. Otherwise, the resultant probability density function for the difficult to measure quantity or field will not be appropriately clustered around the truth. In particular, the inverse problem should be formulated by evaluating the numerical solution at the true point locations for direct comparison with the point data source. If the data are first fitted to a gridded or meshed field on the computational grid or mesh, and the inverse problem formulated by comparing the numerical solution to the fitted field, the benefits of additional point data values below the grid density will be lost. We demonstrate, with examples in the fields of groundwater hydrology and glaciology, that a consistent formulation can increase the accuracy of results and aid discourse between modellers and observationalists. To do this, we bring point data into the finite element method ecosystem as discontinuous fields on meshes of disconnected vertices. Point evaluation can then be formulated as a finite element interpolation operation (dual-evaluation). This new abstraction is well-suited to automation, including automatic differentiation. We demonstrate this through implementation in Firedrake, which generates highly optimised code for solving PDEs with the finite element method. Our solution integrates with dolfin-adjoint/pyadjoint, allowing PDE-constrained optimisation problems, such as data assimilation, to be solved through forward and adjoint mode automatic differentiation.

Clustering is one of the most fundamental and wide-spread techniques in exploratory data analysis. Yet, the basic approach to clustering has not really changed: a practitioner hand-picks a task-specific clustering loss to optimize and fit the given data to reveal the underlying cluster structure. Some types of losses---such as k-means, or its non-linear version: kernelized k-means (centroid based), and DBSCAN (density based)---are popular choices due to their good empirical performance on a range of applications. Although every so often the clustering output using these standard losses fails to reveal the underlying structure, and the practitioner has to custom-design their own variation. In this work we take an intrinsically different approach to clustering: rather than fitting a dataset to a specific clustering loss, we train a recurrent model that learns how to cluster. The model uses as training pairs examples of datasets (as input) and its corresponding cluster identities (as output). By providing multiple types of training datasets as inputs, our model has the ability to generalize well on unseen datasets (new clustering tasks). Our experiments reveal that by training on simple synthetically generated datasets or on existing real datasets, we can achieve better clustering performance on unseen real-world datasets when compared with standard benchmark clustering techniques. Our meta clustering model works well even for small datasets where the usual deep learning models tend to perform worse.