This work proposes a method of wind farm scenario generation to support real-time optimization tools and presents key findings therein. This work draws upon work from the literature and presents an efficient and scalable method for producing an adequate number of scenarios for a large fleet of wind farms while capturing both spatial and temporal dependencies. The method makes probabilistic forecasts using conditional heteroscedastic regression for each wind farm and time horizon. Past training data is transformed (using the probabilistic forecasting models) into standard normal samples. A Gaussian copula is estimated from the normalized samples and used in real-time to enforce proper spatial and temporal dependencies. The method is evaluated using historical data from MISO and performance within the MISO real-time look-ahead framework is discussed.
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We introduce the notion of Point in Time Economic Scenario Generation (PiT ESG) with a clear mathematical problem formulation to unify and compare economic scenario generation approaches conditional on forward looking market data. Such PiT ESGs should provide quicker and more flexible reactions to sudden economic changes than traditional ESGs calibrated solely to long periods of historical data. We specifically take as economic variable the S&P500 Index with the VIX Index as forward looking market data to compare the nonparametric filtered historical simulation, GARCH model with joint likelihood estimation (parametric), Restricted Boltzmann Machine and the conditional Variational Autoencoder (Generative Networks) for their suitability as PiT ESG. Our evaluation consists of statistical tests for model fit and benchmarking the out of sample forecasting quality with a strategy backtest using model output as stop loss criterion. We find that both Generative Networks outperform the nonparametric and classic parametric model in our tests, but that the CVAE seems to be particularly well suited for our purposes: yielding more robust performance and being computationally lighter.
The representation of consistent mixed reality (XR) environments requires adequate real and virtual illumination composition in real-time. Estimating the lighting of a real scenario is still a challenge. Due to the ill-posed nature of the problem, classical inverse-rendering techniques tackle the problem for simple lighting setups. However, those assumptions do not satisfy the current state-of-art in computer graphics and XR applications. While many recent works solve the problem using machine learning techniques to estimate the environment light and scene's materials, most of them are limited to geometry or previous knowledge. This paper presents a CNN-based model to estimate complex lighting for mixed reality environments with no previous information about the scene. We model the environment illumination using a set of spherical harmonics (SH) environment lighting, capable of efficiently represent area lighting. We propose a new CNN architecture that inputs an RGB image and recognizes, in real-time, the environment lighting. Unlike previous CNN-based lighting estimation methods, we propose using a highly optimized deep neural network architecture, with a reduced number of parameters, that can learn high complex lighting scenarios from real-world high-dynamic-range (HDR) environment images. We show in the experiments that the CNN architecture can predict the environment lighting with an average mean squared error (MSE) of \num{7.85e-04} when comparing SH lighting coefficients. We validate our model in a variety of mixed reality scenarios. Furthermore, we present qualitative results comparing relights of real-world scenes.
We introduce a method to render Neural Radiance Fields (NeRFs) in real time using PlenOctrees, an octree-based 3D representation which supports view-dependent effects. Our method can render 800x800 images at more than 150 FPS, which is over 3000 times faster than conventional NeRFs. We do so without sacrificing quality while preserving the ability of NeRFs to perform free-viewpoint rendering of scenes with arbitrary geometry and view-dependent effects. Real-time performance is achieved by pre-tabulating the NeRF into a PlenOctree. In order to preserve view-dependent effects such as specularities, we factorize the appearance via closed-form spherical basis functions. Specifically, we show that it is possible to train NeRFs to predict a spherical harmonic representation of radiance, removing the viewing direction as an input to the neural network. Furthermore, we show that PlenOctrees can be directly optimized to further minimize the reconstruction loss, which leads to equal or better quality compared to competing methods. Moreover, this octree optimization step can be used to reduce the training time, as we no longer need to wait for the NeRF training to converge fully. Our real-time neural rendering approach may potentially enable new applications such as 6-DOF industrial and product visualizations, as well as next generation AR/VR systems. PlenOctrees are amenable to in-browser rendering as well; please visit the project page for the interactive online demo, as well as video and code: //alexyu.net/plenoctrees
Recent advances in Transformer models allow for unprecedented sequence lengths, due to linear space and time complexity. In the meantime, relative positional encoding (RPE) was proposed as beneficial for classical Transformers and consists in exploiting lags instead of absolute positions for inference. Still, RPE is not available for the recent linear-variants of the Transformer, because it requires the explicit computation of the attention matrix, which is precisely what is avoided by such methods. In this paper, we bridge this gap and present Stochastic Positional Encoding as a way to generate PE that can be used as a replacement to the classical additive (sinusoidal) PE and provably behaves like RPE. The main theoretical contribution is to make a connection between positional encoding and cross-covariance structures of correlated Gaussian processes. We illustrate the performance of our approach on the Long-Range Arena benchmark and on music generation.
Generating realistic images from scene graphs asks neural networks to be able to reason about object relationships and compositionality. As a relatively new task, how to properly ensure the generated images comply with scene graphs or how to measure task performance remains an open question. In this paper, we propose to harness scene graph context to improve image generation from scene graphs. We introduce a scene graph context network that pools features generated by a graph convolutional neural network that are then provided to both the image generation network and the adversarial loss. With the context network, our model is trained to not only generate realistic looking images, but also to better preserve non-spatial object relationships. We also define two novel evaluation metrics, the relation score and the mean opinion relation score, for this task that directly evaluate scene graph compliance. We use both quantitative and qualitative studies to demonstrate that our pro-posed model outperforms the state-of-the-art on this challenging task.
Over the past years, there has been a resurgence of Datalog-based systems in the database community as well as in industry. In this context, it has been recognized that to handle the complex knowl\-edge-based scenarios encountered today, such as reasoning over large knowledge graphs, Datalog has to be extended with features such as existential quantification. Yet, Datalog-based reasoning in the presence of existential quantification is in general undecidable. Many efforts have been made to define decidable fragments. Warded Datalog+/- is a very promising one, as it captures PTIME complexity while allowing ontological reasoning. Yet so far, no implementation of Warded Datalog+/- was available. In this paper we present the Vadalog system, a Datalog-based system for performing complex logic reasoning tasks, such as those required in advanced knowledge graphs. The Vadalog system is Oxford's contribution to the VADA research programme, a joint effort of the universities of Oxford, Manchester and Edinburgh and around 20 industrial partners. As the main contribution of this paper, we illustrate the first implementation of Warded Datalog+/-, a high-performance Datalog+/- system utilizing an aggressive termination control strategy. We also provide a comprehensive experimental evaluation.
An important problem in geostatistics is to build models of the subsurface of the Earth given physical measurements at sparse spatial locations. Typically, this is done using spatial interpolation methods or by reproducing patterns from a reference image. However, these algorithms fail to produce realistic patterns and do not exhibit the wide range of uncertainty inherent in the prediction of geology. In this paper, we show how semantic inpainting with Generative Adversarial Networks can be used to generate varied realizations of geology which honor physical measurements while matching the expected geological patterns. In contrast to other algorithms, our method scales well with the number of data points and mimics a distribution of patterns as opposed to a single pattern or image. The generated conditional samples are state of the art.
We are creating multimedia contents everyday and everywhere. While automatic content generation has played a fundamental challenge to multimedia community for decades, recent advances of deep learning have made this problem feasible. For example, the Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) is a rewarding approach to synthesize images. Nevertheless, it is not trivial when capitalizing on GANs to generate videos. The difficulty originates from the intrinsic structure where a video is a sequence of visually coherent and semantically dependent frames. This motivates us to explore semantic and temporal coherence in designing GANs to generate videos. In this paper, we present a novel Temporal GANs conditioning on Captions, namely TGANs-C, in which the input to the generator network is a concatenation of a latent noise vector and caption embedding, and then is transformed into a frame sequence with 3D spatio-temporal convolutions. Unlike the naive discriminator which only judges pairs as fake or real, our discriminator additionally notes whether the video matches the correct caption. In particular, the discriminator network consists of three discriminators: video discriminator classifying realistic videos from generated ones and optimizes video-caption matching, frame discriminator discriminating between real and fake frames and aligning frames with the conditioning caption, and motion discriminator emphasizing the philosophy that the adjacent frames in the generated videos should be smoothly connected as in real ones. We qualitatively demonstrate the capability of our TGANs-C to generate plausible videos conditioning on the given captions on two synthetic datasets (SBMG and TBMG) and one real-world dataset (MSVD). Moreover, quantitative experiments on MSVD are performed to validate our proposal via Generative Adversarial Metric and human study.
Dynamic topic models (DTMs) model the evolution of prevalent themes in literature, online media, and other forms of text over time. DTMs assume that word co-occurrence statistics change continuously and therefore impose continuous stochastic process priors on their model parameters. These dynamical priors make inference much harder than in regular topic models, and also limit scalability. In this paper, we present several new results around DTMs. First, we extend the class of tractable priors from Wiener processes to the generic class of Gaussian processes (GPs). This allows us to explore topics that develop smoothly over time, that have a long-term memory or are temporally concentrated (for event detection). Second, we show how to perform scalable approximate inference in these models based on ideas around stochastic variational inference and sparse Gaussian processes. This way we can train a rich family of DTMs to massive data. Our experiments on several large-scale datasets show that our generalized model allows us to find interesting patterns that were not accessible by previous approaches.
Generating novel, yet realistic, images of persons is a challenging task due to the complex interplay between the different image factors, such as the foreground, background and pose information. In this work, we aim at generating such images based on a novel, two-stage reconstruction pipeline that learns a disentangled representation of the aforementioned image factors and generates novel person images at the same time. First, a multi-branched reconstruction network is proposed to disentangle and encode the three factors into embedding features, which are then combined to re-compose the input image itself. Second, three corresponding mapping functions are learned in an adversarial manner in order to map Gaussian noise to the learned embedding feature space, for each factor respectively. Using the proposed framework, we can manipulate the foreground, background and pose of the input image, and also sample new embedding features to generate such targeted manipulations, that provide more control over the generation process. Experiments on Market-1501 and Deepfashion datasets show that our model does not only generate realistic person images with new foregrounds, backgrounds and poses, but also manipulates the generated factors and interpolates the in-between states. Another set of experiments on Market-1501 shows that our model can also be beneficial for the person re-identification task.
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