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Covariance estimation for matrix-valued data has received an increasing interest in applications. Unlike previous works that rely heavily on matrix normal distribution assumption and the requirement of fixed matrix size, we propose a class of distribution-free regularized covariance estimation methods for high-dimensional matrix data under a separability condition and a bandable covariance structure. Under these conditions, the original covariance matrix is decomposed into a Kronecker product of two bandable small covariance matrices representing the variability over row and column directions. We formulate a unified framework for estimating bandable covariance, and introduce an efficient algorithm based on rank one unconstrained Kronecker product approximation. The convergence rates of the proposed estimators are established, and the derived minimax lower bound shows our proposed estimator is rate-optimal under certain divergence regimes of matrix size. We further introduce a class of robust covariance estimators and provide theoretical guarantees to deal with heavy-tailed data. We demonstrate the superior finite-sample performance of our methods using simulations and real applications from a gridded temperature anomalies dataset and a S&P 500 stock data analysis.

Evaluation of keyword spotting (KWS) systems that detect keywords in speech is a challenging task under realistic privacy constraints. The KWS is designed to only collect data when the keyword is present, limiting the availability of hard samples that may contain false negatives, and preventing direct estimation of model recall from production data. Alternatively, complementary data collected from other sources may not be fully representative of the real application. In this work, we propose an evaluation technique which we call AB/BA analysis. Our framework evaluates a candidate KWS model B against a baseline model A, using cross-dataset offline decoding for relative recall estimation, without requiring negative examples. Moreover, we propose a formulation with assumptions that allow estimation of relative false positive rate between models with low variance even when the number of false positives is small. Finally, we propose to leverage machine-generated soft labels, in a technique we call Semi-Supervised AB/BA analysis, that improves the analysis time, privacy, and cost. Experiments with both simulation and real data show that AB/BA analysis is successful at measuring recall improvement in conjunction with the trade-off in relative false positive rate.

Existing inferential methods for small area data involve a trade-off between maintaining area-level frequentist coverage rates and improving inferential precision via the incorporation of indirect information. In this article, we propose a method to obtain an area-level prediction region for a future observation which mitigates this trade-off. The proposed method takes a conformal prediction approach in which the conformity measure is the posterior predictive density of a working model that incorporates indirect information. The resulting prediction region has guaranteed frequentist coverage regardless of the working model, and, if the working model assumptions are accurate, the region has minimum expected volume compared to other regions with the same coverage rate. When constructed under a normal working model, we prove such a prediction region is an interval and construct an efficient algorithm to obtain the exact interval. We illustrate the performance of our method through simulation studies and an application to EPA radon survey data.

We propose in this paper a data driven state estimation scheme for generating nonlinear reduced models for parametric families of PDEs, directly providing data-to-state maps, represented in terms of Deep Neural Networks. A major constituent is a sensor-induced decomposition of a model-compliant Hilbert space warranting approximation in problem relevant metrics. It plays a similar role as in a Parametric Background Data Weak framework for state estimators based on Reduced Basis concepts. Extensive numerical tests shed light on several optimization strategies that are to improve robustness and performance of such estimators.

The fact that the millimeter-wave (mmWave) multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) channel has sparse support in the spatial domain has motivated recent compressed sensing (CS)-based mmWave channel estimation methods, where the angles of arrivals (AoAs) and angles of departures (AoDs) are quantized using angle dictionary matrices. However, the existing CS-based methods usually obtain the estimation result through one-stage channel sounding that have two limitations: (i) the requirement of large-dimensional dictionary and (ii) unresolvable quantization error. These two drawbacks are irreconcilable; improvement of the one implies deterioration of the other. To address these challenges, we propose, in this paper, a two-stage method to estimate the AoAs and AoDs of mmWave channels. In the proposed method, the channel estimation task is divided into two stages, Stage I and Stage II. Specifically, in Stage I, the AoAs are estimated by solving a multiple measurement vectors (MMV) problem. In Stage II, based on the estimated AoAs, the receive sounders are designed to estimate AoDs. The dimension of the angle dictionary in each stage can be reduced, which in turn reduces the computational complexity substantially. We then analyze the successful recovery probability (SRP) of the proposed method, revealing the superiority of the proposed framework over the existing one-stage CS-based methods. We further enhance the reconstruction performance by performing resource allocation between the two stages. We also overcome the unresolvable quantization error issue present in the prior techniques by applying the atomic norm minimization method to each stage of the proposed two-stage approach. The simulation results illustrate the substantially improved performance with low complexity of the proposed two-stage method.

Extracting non-Gaussian information from the non-linear regime of structure formation is key to fully exploiting the rich data from upcoming cosmological surveys probing the large-scale structure of the universe. However, due to theoretical and computational complexities, this remains one of the main challenges in analyzing observational data. We present a set of summary statistics for cosmological matter fields based on 3D wavelets to tackle this challenge. These statistics are computed as the spatial average of the complex modulus of the 3D wavelet transform raised to a power $q$ and are therefore known as invariant wavelet moments. The 3D wavelets are constructed to be radially band-limited and separable on a spherical polar grid and come in three types: isotropic, oriented, and harmonic. In the Fisher forecast framework, we evaluate the performance of these summary statistics on matter fields from the Quijote suite, where they are shown to reach state-of-the-art parameter constraints on the base $\Lambda$CDM parameters, as well as the sum of neutrino masses. We show that we can improve constraints by a factor 5 to 10 in all parameters with respect to the power spectrum baseline.

Bayesian model selection provides a powerful framework for objectively comparing models directly from observed data, without reference to ground truth data. However, Bayesian model selection requires the computation of the marginal likelihood (model evidence), which is computationally challenging, prohibiting its use in many high-dimensional Bayesian inverse problems. With Bayesian imaging applications in mind, in this work we present the proximal nested sampling methodology to objectively compare alternative Bayesian imaging models for applications that use images to inform decisions under uncertainty. The methodology is based on nested sampling, a Monte Carlo approach specialised for model comparison, and exploits proximal Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques to scale efficiently to large problems and to tackle models that are log-concave and not necessarily smooth (e.g., involving l_1 or total-variation priors). The proposed approach can be applied computationally to problems of dimension O(10^6) and beyond, making it suitable for high-dimensional inverse imaging problems. It is validated on large Gaussian models, for which the likelihood is available analytically, and subsequently illustrated on a range of imaging problems where it is used to analyse different choices of dictionary and measurement model.

One of the most important problems in system identification and statistics is how to estimate the unknown parameters of a given model. Optimization methods and specialized procedures, such as Empirical Minimization (EM) can be used in case the likelihood function can be computed. For situations where one can only simulate from a parametric model, but the likelihood is difficult or impossible to evaluate, a technique known as the Two-Stage (TS) Approach can be applied to obtain reliable parametric estimates. Unfortunately, there is currently a lack of theoretical justification for TS. In this paper, we propose a statistical decision-theoretical derivation of TS, which leads to Bayesian and Minimax estimators. We also show how to apply the TS approach on models for independent and identically distributed samples, by computing quantiles of the data as a first step, and using a linear function as the second stage. The proposed method is illustrated via numerical simulations.

With the increasing penetration of distributed energy resources, distributed optimization algorithms have attracted significant attention for power systems applications due to their potential for superior scalability, privacy, and robustness to a single point-of-failure. The Alternating Direction Method of Multipliers (ADMM) is a popular distributed optimization algorithm; however, its convergence performance is highly dependent on the selection of penalty parameters, which are usually chosen heuristically. In this work, we use reinforcement learning (RL) to develop an adaptive penalty parameter selection policy for the AC optimal power flow (ACOPF) problem solved via ADMM with the goal of minimizing the number of iterations until convergence. We train our RL policy using deep Q-learning, and show that this policy can result in significantly accelerated convergence (up to a 59% reduction in the number of iterations compared to existing, curvature-informed penalty parameter selection methods). Furthermore, we show that our RL policy demonstrates promise for generalizability, performing well under unseen loading schemes as well as under unseen losses of lines and generators (up to a 50% reduction in iterations). This work thus provides a proof-of-concept for using RL for parameter selection in ADMM for power systems applications.

This paper takes a different approach for the distributed linear parameter estimation over a multi-agent network. The parameter vector is considered to be stochastic with a Gaussian distribution. The sensor measurements at each agent are linear and corrupted with additive white Gaussian noise. Under such settings, this paper presents a novel distributed estimation algorithm that fuses the the concepts of consensus and innovations by incorporating the consensus terms (of neighboring estimates) into the innovation terms. Under the assumption of distributed parameter observability, introduced in this paper, we design the optimal gain matrices such that the distributed estimates are consistent and achieves fast convergence.