Despite the progress in medical data collection the actual burden of SARS-CoV-2 remains unknown due to under-ascertainment of cases. This was apparent in the acute phase of the pandemic and the use of reported deaths has been pointed out as a more reliable source of information, likely less prone to under-reporting. Since daily deaths occur from past infections weighted by their probability of death, one may infer the total number of infections accounting for their age distribution, using the data on reported deaths. We adopt this framework and assume that the dynamics generating the total number of infections can be described by a continuous time transmission model expressed through a system of non-linear ordinary differential equations where the transmission rate is modelled as a diffusion process allowing to reveal both the effect of control strategies and the changes in individuals behavior. We develop this flexible Bayesian tool in Stan and study 3 pairs of European countries, estimating the time-varying reproduction number($R_t$) as well as the true cumulative number of infected individuals. As we estimate the true number of infections we offer a more accurate estimate of $R_t$. We also provide an estimate of the daily reporting ratio and discuss the effects of changes in mobility and testing on the inferred quantities.
相關內容
We present a family of minimal modal logics (namely, modal logics based on minimal propositional logic) corresponding each to a different classical modal logic. The minimal modal logics are defined based on their classical counterparts in two distinct ways: (1) via embedding into fusions of classical modal logics through a natural extension of the G\"odel-Johansson translation of minimal logic into modal logic S4; (2) via extension to modal logics of the multi- vs. single-succedent correspondence of sequent calculi for classical and minimal logic. We show that, despite being mutually independent, the two methods turn out to be equivalent for a wide class of modal systems. Moreover, we compare the resulting minimal version of K with the constructive modal logic CK studied in the literature, displaying tight relations among the two systems. Based on these relations, we also define a constructive correspondent for each minimal system, thus obtaining a family of constructive modal logics which includes CK as well as other constructive modal logics studied in the literature.
Previous researchers conducting Just-In-Time (JIT) defect prediction tasks have primarily focused on the performance of individual pre-trained models, without exploring the relationship between different pre-trained models as backbones. In this study, we build six models: RoBERTaJIT, CodeBERTJIT, BARTJIT, PLBARTJIT, GPT2JIT, and CodeGPTJIT, each with a distinct pre-trained model as its backbone. We systematically explore the differences and connections between these models. Specifically, we investigate the performance of the models when using Commit code and Commit message as inputs, as well as the relationship between training efficiency and model distribution among these six models. Additionally, we conduct an ablation experiment to explore the sensitivity of each model to inputs. Furthermore, we investigate how the models perform in zero-shot and few-shot scenarios. Our findings indicate that each model based on different backbones shows improvements, and when the backbone's pre-training model is similar, the training resources that need to be consumed are much more closer. We also observe that Commit code plays a significant role in defect detection, and different pre-trained models demonstrate better defect detection ability with a balanced dataset under few-shot scenarios. These results provide new insights for optimizing JIT defect prediction tasks using pre-trained models and highlight the factors that require more attention when constructing such models. Additionally, CodeGPTJIT and GPT2JIT achieved better performance than DeepJIT and CC2Vec on the two datasets respectively under 2000 training samples. These findings emphasize the effectiveness of transformer-based pre-trained models in JIT defect prediction tasks, especially in scenarios with limited training data.
We propose a novel algorithm for solving the composite Federated Learning (FL) problem. This algorithm manages non-smooth regularization by strategically decoupling the proximal operator and communication, and addresses client drift without any assumptions about data similarity. Moreover, each worker uses local updates to reduce the communication frequency with the server and transmits only a $d$-dimensional vector per communication round. We prove that our algorithm converges linearly to a neighborhood of the optimal solution and demonstrate the superiority of our algorithm over state-of-the-art methods in numerical experiments.
Bayesian binary regression is a prosperous area of research due to the computational challenges encountered by currently available methods either for high-dimensional settings or large datasets, or both. In the present work, we focus on the expectation propagation (EP) approximation of the posterior distribution in Bayesian probit regression under a multivariate Gaussian prior distribution. Adapting more general derivations in Anceschi et al. (2023), we show how to leverage results on the extended multivariate skew-normal distribution to derive an efficient implementation of the EP routine having a per-iteration cost that scales linearly in the number of covariates. This makes EP computationally feasible also in challenging high-dimensional settings, as shown in a detailed simulation study.
Binary responses arise in a multitude of statistical problems, including binary classification, bioassay, current status data problems and sensitivity estimation. There has been an interest in such problems in the Bayesian nonparametrics community since the early 1970s, but inference given binary data is intractable for a wide range of modern simulation-based models, even when employing MCMC methods. Recently, Christensen (2023) introduced a novel simulation technique based on counting permutations, which can estimate both posterior distributions and marginal likelihoods for any model from which a random sample can be generated. However, the accompanying implementation of this technique struggles when the sample size is too large (n > 250). Here we present perms, a new implementation of said technique which is substantially faster and able to handle larger data problems than the original implementation. It is available both as an R package and a Python library. The basic usage of perms is illustrated via two simple examples: a tractable toy problem and a bioassay problem. A more complex example involving changepoint analysis is also considered. We also cover the details of the implementation and illustrate the computational speed gain of perms via a simple simulation study.
Timely response of Network Intrusion Detection Systems (NIDS) is constrained by the flow generation process which requires accumulation of network packets. This paper introduces Multivariate Time Series (MTS) early detection into NIDS to identify malicious flows prior to their arrival at target systems. With this in mind, we first propose a novel feature extractor, Time Series Network Flow Meter (TS-NFM), that represents network flow as MTS with explainable features, and a new benchmark dataset is created using TS-NFM and the meta-data of CICIDS2017, called SCVIC-TS-2022. Additionally, a new deep learning-based early detection model called Multi-Domain Transformer (MDT) is proposed, which incorporates the frequency domain into Transformer. This work further proposes a Multi-Domain Multi-Head Attention (MD-MHA) mechanism to improve the ability of MDT to extract better features. Based on the experimental results, the proposed methodology improves the earliness of the conventional NIDS (i.e., percentage of packets that are used for classification) by 5x10^4 times and duration-based earliness (i.e., percentage of duration of the classified packets of a flow) by a factor of 60, resulting in a 84.1% macro F1 score (31% higher than Transformer) on SCVIC-TS-2022. Additionally, the proposed MDT outperforms the state-of-the-art early detection methods by 5% and 6% on ECG and Wafer datasets, respectively.
This paper proposes a Cartesian grid-based boundary integral method for efficiently and stably solving two representative moving interface problems, the Hele-Shaw flow and the Stefan problem. Elliptic and parabolic partial differential equations (PDEs) are reformulated into boundary integral equations and are then solved with the matrix-free generalized minimal residual (GMRES) method. The evaluation of boundary integrals is performed by solving equivalent and simple interface problems with finite difference methods, allowing the use of fast PDE solvers, such as fast Fourier transform (FFT) and geometric multigrid methods. The interface curve is evolved utilizing the $\theta-L$ variables instead of the more commonly used $x-y$ variables. This choice simplifies the preservation of mesh quality during the interface evolution. In addition, the $\theta-L$ approach enables the design of efficient and stable time-stepping schemes to remove the stiffness that arises from the curvature term. Ample numerical examples, including simulations of complex viscous fingering and dendritic solidification problems, are presented to showcase the capability of the proposed method to handle challenging moving interface problems.
Building on Dryden et al. (2021), this note presents the Bayesian estimation of a regression model for size-and-shape response variables with Gaussian landmarks. Our proposal fits into the framework of Bayesian latent variable models and allows a highly flexible modelling framework.
We provide a new sequent calculus that enjoys syntactic cut-elimination and strongly terminating backward proof search for the intuitionistic Strong L\"ob logic $\sf{iSL}$, an intuitionistic modal logic with a provability interpretation. A novel measure on sequents is used to prove both the termination of the naive backward proof search strategy, and the admissibility of cut in a syntactic and direct way, leading to a straightforward cut-elimination procedure. All proofs have been formalised in the interactive theorem prover Coq.
Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) are becoming increasingly popular due to their superior performance in critical graph-related tasks. While quantization is widely used to accelerate GNN computation, quantized training faces unprecedented challenges. Current quantized GNN training systems often have longer training times than their full-precision counterparts for two reasons: (i) addressing the accuracy challenge leads to excessive overhead, and (ii) the optimization potential exposed by quantization is not adequately leveraged. This paper introduces Tango which re-thinks quantization challenges and opportunities for graph neural network training on GPUs with three contributions: Firstly, we introduce efficient rules to maintain accuracy during quantized GNN training. Secondly, we design and implement quantization-aware primitives and inter-primitive optimizations that can speed up GNN training. Finally, we integrate Tango with the popular Deep Graph Library (DGL) system and demonstrate its superior performance over state-of-the-art approaches on various GNN models and datasets.
小貼士
登錄享
相關主題
注冊地址： 北京市海淀區羊坊店路18號2幢3層301-191