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We provide a new theory for nodewise regression when the residuals from a fitted factor model are used. We apply our results to the analysis of the consistency of Sharpe ratio estimators when there are many assets in a portfolio. We allow for an increasing number of assets as well as time observations of the portfolio. Since the nodewise regression is not feasible due to the unknown nature of idiosyncratic errors, we provide a feasible-residual-based nodewise regression to estimate the precision matrix of errors which is consistent even when number of assets, p, exceeds the time span of the portfolio, n. In another new development, we also show that the precision matrix of returns can be estimated consistently, even with an increasing number of factors and p>n. We show that: (1) with p>n, the Sharpe ratio estimators are consistent in global minimum-variance and mean-variance portfolios; and (2) with p>n, the maximum Sharpe ratio estimator is consistent when the portfolio weights sum to one; and (3) with p<<n, the maximum-out-of-sample Sharpe ratio estimator is consistent.

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Deep learning has shown successful application in visual recognition and certain artificial intelligence tasks. Deep learning is also considered as a powerful tool with high flexibility to approximate functions. In the present work, functions with desired properties are devised to approximate the solutions of PDEs. Our approach is based on a posteriori error estimation in which the adjoint problem is solved for the error localization to formulate an error estimator within the framework of neural network. An efficient and easy to implement algorithm is developed to obtain a posteriori error estimate for multiple goal functionals by employing the dual-weighted residual approach, which is followed by the computation of both primal and adjoint solutions using the neural network. The present study shows that such a data-driven model based learning has superior approximation of quantities of interest even with relatively less training data. The novel algorithmic developments are substantiated with numerical test examples. The advantages of using deep neural network over the shallow neural network are demonstrated and the convergence enhancing techniques are also presented

We present a framework for performing regression when both covariate and response are probability distributions on a compact interval $\Omega\subset\mathbb{R}$. Our regression model is based on the theory of optimal transportation and links the conditional Fr\'echet mean of the response distribution to the covariate distribution via an optimal transport map. We define a Fr\'echet-least-squares estimator of this regression map, and establish its consistency and rate of convergence to the true map, under both full and partial observation of the regression pairs. Computation of the estimator is shown to reduce to an isotonic regression problem, and thus our regression model can be implemented with ease. We illustrate our methodology using real and simulated data.

The logistic and probit link functions are the most common choices for regression models with a binary response. However, these choices are not robust to the presence of outliers/unexpected observations. The robit link function, which is equal to the inverse CDF of the Student's $t$-distribution, provides a robust alternative to the probit and logistic link functions. A multivariate normal prior for the regression coefficients is the standard choice for Bayesian inference in robit regression models. The resulting posterior density is intractable and a Data Augmentation (DA) Markov chain is used to generate approximate samples from the desired posterior distribution. Establishing geometric ergodicity for this DA Markov chain is important as it provides theoretical guarantees for asymptotic validity of MCMC standard errors for desired posterior expectations/quantiles. Previous work [Roy(2012)] established geometric ergodicity of this robit DA Markov chain assuming (i) the sample size $n$ dominates the number of predictors $p$, and (ii) an additional constraint which requires the sample size to be bounded above by a fixed constant which depends on the design matrix $X$. In particular, modern high-dimensional settings where $n < p$ are not considered. In this work, we show that the robit DA Markov chain is trace-class (i.e., the eigenvalues of the corresponding Markov operator are summable) for arbitrary choices of the sample size $n$, the number of predictors $p$, the design matrix $X$, and the prior mean and variance parameters. The trace-class property implies geometric ergodicity. Moreover, this property allows us to conclude that the sandwich robit chain (obtained by inserting an inexpensive extra step in between the two steps of the DA chain) is strictly better than the robit DA chain in an appropriate sense.

Modern high-dimensional methods often adopt the ``bet on sparsity'' principle, while in supervised multivariate learning statisticians may face ``dense'' problems with a large number of nonzero coefficients. This paper proposes a novel clustered reduced-rank learning (CRL) framework that imposes two joint matrix regularizations to automatically group the features in constructing predictive factors. CRL is more interpretable than low-rank modeling and relaxes the stringent sparsity assumption in variable selection. In this paper, new information-theoretical limits are presented to reveal the intrinsic cost of seeking for clusters, as well as the blessing from dimensionality in multivariate learning. Moreover, an efficient optimization algorithm is developed, which performs subspace learning and clustering with guaranteed convergence. The obtained fixed-point estimators, though not necessarily globally optimal, enjoy the desired statistical accuracy beyond the standard likelihood setup under some regularity conditions. Moreover, a new kind of information criterion, as well as its scale-free form, is proposed for cluster and rank selection, and has a rigorous theoretical support without assuming an infinite sample size. Extensive simulations and real-data experiments demonstrate the statistical accuracy and interpretability of the proposed method.

We propose a new splitting method for strong numerical solution of the Cox-Ingersoll-Ross model. For this method, applied over both deterministic and adaptive random meshes, we prove a uniform moment bound and strong error results of order $1/4$ in $L_1$ and $L_2$ for the parameter regime $\kappa\theta>\sigma^2$. Our scheme does not fall into the class analyzed in Hefter & Herzwurm (2018) where convergence of maximum order $1/4$ of a novel class of Milstein-based methods over the full range of parameter values is shown. Hence we present a separate convergence analysis before we extend the new method to cover all parameter values by introducing a 'soft zero' region (where the deterministic flow determines the approximation) giving a hybrid type method to deal with the reflecting boundary. From numerical simulations we observe a rate of order $1$ when $\kappa\theta>\sigma^2$ rather than $1/4$. Asymptotically, for large noise, we observe that the rates of convergence decrease similarly to those of other schemes but that the proposed method displays smaller error constants. Our results also serve as supporting numerical evidence that the conjecture of Hefter & Jentzen (2019) holds true for methods with non-uniform Wiener increments.

Heatmap-based methods dominate in the field of human pose estimation by modelling the output distribution through likelihood heatmaps. In contrast, regression-based methods are more efficient but suffer from inferior performance. In this work, we explore maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) to develop an efficient and effective regression-based methods. From the perspective of MLE, adopting different regression losses is making different assumptions about the output density function. A density function closer to the true distribution leads to a better regression performance. In light of this, we propose a novel regression paradigm with Residual Log-likelihood Estimation (RLE) to capture the underlying output distribution. Concretely, RLE learns the change of the distribution instead of the unreferenced underlying distribution to facilitate the training process. With the proposed reparameterization design, our method is compatible with off-the-shelf flow models. The proposed method is effective, efficient and flexible. We show its potential in various human pose estimation tasks with comprehensive experiments. Compared to the conventional regression paradigm, regression with RLE bring 12.4 mAP improvement on MSCOCO without any test-time overhead. Moreover, for the first time, especially on multi-person pose estimation, our regression method is superior to the heatmap-based methods. Our code is available at //github.com/Jeff-sjtu/res-loglikelihood-regression

Residual networks (ResNets) have displayed impressive results in pattern recognition and, recently, have garnered considerable theoretical interest due to a perceived link with neural ordinary differential equations (neural ODEs). This link relies on the convergence of network weights to a smooth function as the number of layers increases. We investigate the properties of weights trained by stochastic gradient descent and their scaling with network depth through detailed numerical experiments. We observe the existence of scaling regimes markedly different from those assumed in neural ODE literature. Depending on certain features of the network architecture, such as the smoothness of the activation function, one may obtain an alternative ODE limit, a stochastic differential equation or neither of these. These findings cast doubts on the validity of the neural ODE model as an adequate asymptotic description of deep ResNets and point to an alternative class of differential equations as a better description of the deep network limit.

Sampling methods (e.g., node-wise, layer-wise, or subgraph) has become an indispensable strategy to speed up training large-scale Graph Neural Networks (GNNs). However, existing sampling methods are mostly based on the graph structural information and ignore the dynamicity of optimization, which leads to high variance in estimating the stochastic gradients. The high variance issue can be very pronounced in extremely large graphs, where it results in slow convergence and poor generalization. In this paper, we theoretically analyze the variance of sampling methods and show that, due to the composite structure of empirical risk, the variance of any sampling method can be decomposed into \textit{embedding approximation variance} in the forward stage and \textit{stochastic gradient variance} in the backward stage that necessities mitigating both types of variance to obtain faster convergence rate. We propose a decoupled variance reduction strategy that employs (approximate) gradient information to adaptively sample nodes with minimal variance, and explicitly reduces the variance introduced by embedding approximation. We show theoretically and empirically that the proposed method, even with smaller mini-batch sizes, enjoys a faster convergence rate and entails a better generalization compared to the existing methods.

It is a common paradigm in object detection frameworks to treat all samples equally and target at maximizing the performance on average. In this work, we revisit this paradigm through a careful study on how different samples contribute to the overall performance measured in terms of mAP. Our study suggests that the samples in each mini-batch are neither independent nor equally important, and therefore a better classifier on average does not necessarily mean higher mAP. Motivated by this study, we propose the notion of Prime Samples, those that play a key role in driving the detection performance. We further develop a simple yet effective sampling and learning strategy called PrIme Sample Attention (PISA) that directs the focus of the training process towards such samples. Our experiments demonstrate that it is often more effective to focus on prime samples than hard samples when training a detector. Particularly, On the MSCOCO dataset, PISA outperforms the random sampling baseline and hard mining schemes, e.g. OHEM and Focal Loss, consistently by more than 1% on both single-stage and two-stage detectors, with a strong backbone ResNeXt-101.

We consider the task of learning the parameters of a {\em single} component of a mixture model, for the case when we are given {\em side information} about that component, we call this the "search problem" in mixture models. We would like to solve this with computational and sample complexity lower than solving the overall original problem, where one learns parameters of all components. Our main contributions are the development of a simple but general model for the notion of side information, and a corresponding simple matrix-based algorithm for solving the search problem in this general setting. We then specialize this model and algorithm to four common scenarios: Gaussian mixture models, LDA topic models, subspace clustering, and mixed linear regression. For each one of these we show that if (and only if) the side information is informative, we obtain parameter estimates with greater accuracy, and also improved computation complexity than existing moment based mixture model algorithms (e.g. tensor methods). We also illustrate several natural ways one can obtain such side information, for specific problem instances. Our experiments on real data sets (NY Times, Yelp, BSDS500) further demonstrate the practicality of our algorithms showing significant improvement in runtime and accuracy.

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