Land-use decision-making processes have a long history of producing globally pervasive systemic equity and sustainability concerns. Quantitative, optimization-based planning approaches, e.g. Multi-Objective Land Allocation (MOLA), seemingly open the possibility to improve objectivity and transparency by explicitly evaluating planning priorities by the type, amount, and location of land uses. Here, we show that optimization-based planning approaches with generic planning criteria generate a series of unstable "flashpoints" whereby tiny changes in planning priorities produce large-scale changes in the amount of land use by type. We give quantitative arguments that the flashpoints we uncover in MOLA models are examples of a more general family of instabilities that occur whenever planning accounts for factors that coordinate use on- and between-sites, regardless of whether these planning factors are formulated explicitly or implicitly. We show that instabilities lead to regions of ambiguity in land-use type that we term "gray areas". By directly mapping gray areas between flashpoints, we show that quantitative methods retain utility by reducing combinatorially large spaces of possible land-use patterns to a small, characteristic set that can engage stakeholders to arrive at more efficient and just outcomes.
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Training unsupervised speech recognition systems presents challenges due to GAN-associated instability, misalignment between speech and text, and significant memory demands. To tackle these challenges, we introduce a novel ASR system, ESPUM. This system harnesses the power of lower-order N-skipgrams (up to N=3) combined with positional unigram statistics gathered from a small batch of samples. Evaluated on the TIMIT benchmark, our model showcases competitive performance in ASR and phoneme segmentation tasks. Access our publicly available code at //github.com/lwang114/GraphUnsupASR.
We develop a general theory to optimize the frequentist regret for sequential learning problems, where efficient bandit and reinforcement learning algorithms can be derived from unified Bayesian principles. We propose a novel optimization approach to generate "algorithmic beliefs" at each round, and use Bayesian posteriors to make decisions. The optimization objective to create "algorithmic beliefs," which we term "Algorithmic Information Ratio," represents an intrinsic complexity measure that effectively characterizes the frequentist regret of any algorithm. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first systematical approach to make Bayesian-type algorithms prior-free and applicable to adversarial settings, in a generic and optimal manner. Moreover, the algorithms are simple and often efficient to implement. As a major application, we present a novel algorithm for multi-armed bandits that achieves the "best-of-all-worlds" empirical performance in the stochastic, adversarial, and non-stationary environments. And we illustrate how these principles can be used in linear bandits, bandit convex optimization, and reinforcement learning.
Existing regression models tend to fall short in both accuracy and uncertainty estimation when the label distribution is imbalanced. In this paper, we propose a probabilistic deep learning model, dubbed variational imbalanced regression (VIR), which not only performs well in imbalanced regression but naturally produces reasonable uncertainty estimation as a byproduct. Different from typical variational autoencoders assuming I.I.D. representations (a data point's representation is not directly affected by other data points), our VIR borrows data with similar regression labels to compute the latent representation's variational distribution; furthermore, different from deterministic regression models producing point estimates, VIR predicts the entire normal-inverse-gamma distributions and modulates the associated conjugate distributions to impose probabilistic reweighting on the imbalanced data, thereby providing better uncertainty estimation. Experiments in several real-world datasets show that our VIR can outperform state-of-the-art imbalanced regression models in terms of both accuracy and uncertainty estimation. Code will soon be available at \url{//github.com/Wang-ML-Lab/variational-imbalanced-regression}.
Exploration and analysis of massive datasets has recently generated increasing interest in the research and development communities. It has long been a recognized problem that many datasets contain significant levels of missing numerical data. We introduce a mathematically principled stochastic optimization imputation method based on the theory of Kriging. This is shown to be a powerful method for imputation. However, its computational effort and potential numerical instabilities produce costly and/or unreliable predictions, potentially limiting its use on large scale datasets. In this paper, we apply a recently developed multi-level stochastic optimization approach to the problem of imputation in massive medical records. The approach is based on computational applied mathematics techniques and is highly accurate. In particular, for the Best Linear Unbiased Predictor (BLUP) this multi-level formulation is exact, and is also significantly faster and more numerically stable. This permits practical application of Kriging methods to data imputation problems for massive datasets. We test this approach on data from the National Inpatient Sample (NIS) data records, Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project (HCUP), Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality. Numerical results show the multi-level method significantly outperforms current approaches and is numerically robust. In particular, it has superior accuracy as compared with methods recommended in the recent report from HCUP on the important problem of missing data, which could lead to sub-optimal and poorly based funding policy decisions. In comparative benchmark tests it is shown that the multilevel stochastic method is significantly superior to recommended methods in the report, including Predictive Mean Matching (PMM) and Predicted Posterior Distribution (PPD), with up to 75% reductions in error.
This work extends the theory of identifiability in supervised learning by considering the consequences of having access to a distribution of tasks. In such cases, we show that identifiability is achievable even in the case of regression, extending prior work restricted to linear identifiability in the single-task classification case. Furthermore, we show that the existence of a task distribution which defines a conditional prior over latent factors reduces the equivalence class for identifiability to permutations and scaling, a much stronger and more useful result than linear identifiability. When we further assume a causal structure over these tasks, our approach enables simple maximum marginal likelihood optimization together with downstream applicability to causal representation learning. Empirically, we validate that our model outperforms more general unsupervised models in recovering canonical representations for both synthetic and real-world molecular data.
Despite the promising progress in multi-modal tasks, current large multi-modal models (LMMs) are prone to hallucinating inconsistent descriptions with respect to the associated image and human instructions. This paper addresses this issue by introducing the first large and diverse visual instruction tuning dataset, named Large-scale Robust Visual (LRV)-Instruction. Our dataset comprises 400k visual instructions generated by GPT4, covering 16 vision-and-language tasks with open-ended instructions and answers. Unlike existing studies that primarily focus on positive instruction samples, we design LRV-Instruction to include both positive and negative instructions for more robust visual instruction tuning. Our negative instructions are designed at three semantic levels: (i) Nonexistent Object Manipulation, (ii) Existent Object Manipulation and (iii) Knowledge Manipulation. To efficiently measure the hallucination generated by LMMs, we propose GPT4-Assisted Visual Instruction Evaluation (GAVIE), a stable approach to evaluate visual instruction tuning like human experts. GAVIE does not require human-annotated groundtruth answers and can adapt to diverse instruction formats. We conduct comprehensive experiments to investigate the hallucination of LMMs. Our results demonstrate existing LMMs exhibit significant hallucinations when presented with our negative instructions, particularly Existent Object and Knowledge Manipulation instructions. Moreover, we successfully mitigate hallucination by finetuning MiniGPT4 and mPLUG-Owl on LRV-Instruction while improving performance on several public datasets compared to state-of-the-art methods. Additionally, we observed that a balanced ratio of positive and negative instances in the training data leads to a more robust model.
Distance measurements demonstrate distinctive scalability when used for relative state estimation in large-scale multi-robot systems. Despite the attractiveness of distance measurements, multi-robot relative state estimation based on distance measurements raises a tricky optimization problem, especially in the context of large-scale systems. Motivated by this, we aim to develop specialized computational techniques that enable robust and efficient estimation when deploying distance measurements at scale. We first reveal the commonality between the estimation problem and the one that finds realization of a sensor network, from which we draw crucial lesson to inspire the proposed methods. However, solving the latter problem in large-scale (still) requires distributed optimization schemes with scalability natures, efficient computational procedures, and fast convergence rates. Towards this goal, we propose a complementary pair of distributed computational techniques with the classical block coordinate descent (BCD) algorithm as a unified backbone. In the first method, we treat Burer-Monteiro factorization as a rank-restricted heuristic for rank-constrained semidefinite programming (SDP), where a specialized BCD-type algorithm that analytically solve each block update subproblem is employed. Although this method enables robust and (extremely) fast recovery of estimates from initial guesses, it inevitably fails as the initialization becomes disorganized. We therefore propose the second method, derived from a convex formulation named anchored edge-based semidefinite programming} (ESDP), to complement it, at the expense of a certain loss of efficiency. This formulation is structurally decomposable so that BCD can be naturally employed, where each subproblem is convex and (again) solved exactly...
Discrete-choice models are a powerful framework for analyzing decision-making behavior to provide valuable insights for policymakers and businesses. Multinomial logit models (MNLs) with linear utility functions have been used in practice because they are ease to use and interpretable. Recently, MNLs with neural networks (e.g., ASU-DNN) have been developed, and they have achieved higher prediction accuracy in behavior choice than classical MNLs. However, these models lack interpretability owing to complex structures. We developed utility functions with a novel neural-network architecture based on generalized additive models, named generalized additive utility network ( GAUNet), for discrete-choice models. We evaluated the performance of the MNL with GAUNet using the trip survey data collected in Tokyo. Our models were comparable to ASU-DNN in accuracy and exhibited improved interpretability compared to previous models.
The accurate and interpretable prediction of future events in time-series data often requires the capturing of representative patterns (or referred to as states) underpinning the observed data. To this end, most existing studies focus on the representation and recognition of states, but ignore the changing transitional relations among them. In this paper, we present evolutionary state graph, a dynamic graph structure designed to systematically represent the evolving relations (edges) among states (nodes) along time. We conduct analysis on the dynamic graphs constructed from the time-series data and show that changes on the graph structures (e.g., edges connecting certain state nodes) can inform the occurrences of events (i.e., time-series fluctuation). Inspired by this, we propose a novel graph neural network model, Evolutionary State Graph Network (EvoNet), to encode the evolutionary state graph for accurate and interpretable time-series event prediction. Specifically, Evolutionary State Graph Network models both the node-level (state-to-state) and graph-level (segment-to-segment) propagation, and captures the node-graph (state-to-segment) interactions over time. Experimental results based on five real-world datasets show that our approach not only achieves clear improvements compared with 11 baselines, but also provides more insights towards explaining the results of event predictions.
Multi-relation Question Answering is a challenging task, due to the requirement of elaborated analysis on questions and reasoning over multiple fact triples in knowledge base. In this paper, we present a novel model called Interpretable Reasoning Network that employs an interpretable, hop-by-hop reasoning process for question answering. The model dynamically decides which part of an input question should be analyzed at each hop; predicts a relation that corresponds to the current parsed results; utilizes the predicted relation to update the question representation and the state of the reasoning process; and then drives the next-hop reasoning. Experiments show that our model yields state-of-the-art results on two datasets. More interestingly, the model can offer traceable and observable intermediate predictions for reasoning analysis and failure diagnosis, thereby allowing manual manipulation in predicting the final answer.
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