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Stroke lesion volume is a key radiologic measurement for assessing the prognosis of Acute Ischemic Stroke (AIS) patients, which is challenging to be automatically measured on Non-Contrast CT (NCCT) scans. Recent diffusion probabilistic models have shown potentials of being used for image segmentation. In this paper, a novel Synchronous image-label Diffusion Probability Model (SDPM) is proposed for stroke lesion segmentation on NCCT using Markov diffusion process. The proposed SDPM is fully based on a Latent Variable Model (LVM), offering a complete probabilistic elaboration. An additional net-stream, parallel with a noise prediction stream, is introduced to obtain initial noisy label estimates for efficiently inferring the final labels. By optimizing the specified variational boundaries, the trained model can infer multiple label estimates for reference given the input images with noises. The proposed model was assessed on three stroke lesion datasets including one public and two private datasets. Compared to several U-net and transformer-based segmentation methods, our proposed SDPM model is able to achieve state-of-the-art performance. The code is publicly available.

We introduce the nested stochastic block model (NSBM) to cluster a collection of networks while simultaneously detecting communities within each network. NSBM has several appealing features including the ability to work on unlabeled networks with potentially different node sets, the flexibility to model heterogeneous communities, and the means to automatically select the number of classes for the networks and the number of communities within each network. This is accomplished via a Bayesian model, with a novel application of the nested Dirichlet process (NDP) as a prior to jointly model the between-network and within-network clusters. The dependency introduced by the network data creates nontrivial challenges for the NDP, especially in the development of efficient samplers. For posterior inference, we propose several Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms including a standard Gibbs sampler, a collapsed Gibbs sampler, and two blocked Gibbs samplers that ultimately return two levels of clustering labels from both within and across the networks. Extensive simulation studies are carried out which demonstrate that the model provides very accurate estimates of both levels of the clustering structure. We also apply our model to two social network datasets that cannot be analyzed using any previous method in the literature due to the anonymity of the nodes and the varying number of nodes in each network.

We generalize signature Gr\"obner bases, previously studied in the free algebra over a field or polynomial rings over a ring, to ideals in the mixed algebra $R[x_1,...,x_k]\langle y_1,\dots,y_n \rangle$ where $R$ is a principal ideal domain. We give an algorithm for computing them, combining elements from the theory of commutative and noncommutative (signature) Gr\"obner bases, and prove its correctness. Applications include extensions of the free algebra with commutative variables, e.g., for homogenization purposes or for performing ideal theoretic operations such as intersections, and computations over $\mathbb{Z}$ as universal proofs over fields of arbitrary characteristic. By extending the signature cover criterion to our setting, our algorithm also lifts some technical restrictions from previous noncommutative signature-based algorithms, now allowing, e.g., elimination orderings. We provide a prototype implementation for the case when $R$ is a field, and show that our algorithm for the mixed algebra is more efficient than classical approaches using existing algorithms.

In biomedical studies, longitudinal processes are collected till time-to-event, sometimes on nested timescales (example, days within months). Most of the literature in joint modeling of longitudinal and time-to-event data has focused on modeling the mean or dispersion of the longitudinal process with the hazard for time-to-event. However, based on the motivating studies, it may be of interest to investigate how the cycle-level {\it geometric features} (such as the curvature, location and height of a peak), of a cyclical longitudinal process is associated with the time-to-event being studied. We propose a shared parameter joint model for a cyclical longitudinal process and a discrete survival time, measured on nested timescales, where the cycle-varying geometric feature is modeled through a linear mixed effects model and a proportional hazards model for the discrete survival time. The proposed approach allows for prediction of survival probabilities for future subjects based on their available longitudinal measurements. Our proposed model and approach is illustrated through simulation and analysis of Stress and Time-to-Pregnancy, a component of Oxford Conception Study. A joint modeling approach was used to assess whether the cycle-specific geometric features of the lutenizing hormone measurements, such as its peak or its curvature, are associated with time-to-pregnancy (TTP).

Intensive care occupancy is an important indicator of health care stress that has been used to guide policy decisions during the COVID-19 pandemic. Toward reliable decision-making as a pandemic progresses, estimating the rates at which patients are admitted to and discharged from hospitals and intensive care units (ICUs) is crucial. Since individual-level hospital data are rarely available to modelers in each geographic locality of interest, it is important to develop tools for inferring these rates from publicly available daily numbers of hospital and ICU beds occupied. We develop such an estimation approach based on an immigration-death process that models fluctuations of ICU occupancy. Our flexible framework allows for immigration and death rates to depend on covariates, such as hospital bed occupancy and daily SARS-CoV-2 test positivity rate, which may drive changes in hospital ICU operations. We demonstrate via simulation studies that the proposed method performs well on noisy time series data and apply our statistical framework to hospitalization data from the University of California, Irvine (UCI) Health and Orange County, California. By introducing a likelihood-based framework where immigration and death rates can vary with covariates, we find, through rigorous model selection, that hospitalization and positivity rates are crucial covariates for modeling ICU stay dynamics and validate our per-patient ICU stay estimates using anonymized patient-level UCI hospital data.

The classical latent factor model for linear regression is extended by assuming that, up to an unknown orthogonal transformation, the features consist of subsets that are relevant and irrelevant for the response. Furthermore, a joint low-dimensionality is imposed only on the relevant features vector and the response variable. This framework allows for a comprehensive study of the partial-least-squares (PLS) algorithm under random design. In particular, a novel perturbation bound for PLS solutions is proven and the high-probability $L^2$-estimation rate for the PLS estimator is obtained. This novel framework also sheds light on the performance of other regularisation methods for ill-posed linear regression that exploit sparsity or unsupervised projection. The theoretical findings are confirmed by numerical studies on both real and simulated data.

Randomized trials balance all covariates on average and provide the gold standard for estimating treatment effects. Chance imbalances nevertheless exist more or less in realized treatment allocations and intrigue an important question: what should we do in case the treatment groups differ with respect to some important baseline characteristics? A common strategy is to conduct a {\it preliminary test} of the balance of baseline covariates after randomization, and invoke covariate adjustment for subsequent inference if and only if the realized allocation fails some prespecified criterion. Although such practice is intuitive and popular among practitioners, the existing literature has so far only evaluated its properties under strong parametric model assumptions in theory and simulation, yielding results of limited generality. To fill this gap, we examine two strategies for conducting preliminary test-based covariate adjustment by regression, and evaluate the validity and efficiency of the resulting inferences from the randomization-based perspective. As it turns out, the preliminary-test estimator based on the analysis of covariance can be even less efficient than the unadjusted difference in means, and risks anticonservative confidence intervals based on normal approximation even with the robust standard error. The preliminary-test estimator based on the fully interacted specification is on the other hand less efficient than its counterpart under the {\it always-adjust} strategy, and yields overconservative confidence intervals based on normal approximation. Based on theory and simulation, we echo the existing literature and do not recommend the preliminary-test procedure for covariate adjustment in randomized trials.

Population size estimation based on the capture-recapture experiment is an interesting problem in various fields including epidemiology, criminology, demography, etc. In many real-life scenarios, there exists inherent heterogeneity among the individuals and dependency between capture and recapture attempts. A novel trivariate Bernoulli model is considered to incorporate these features, and the Bayesian estimation of the model parameters is suggested using data augmentation. Simulation results show robustness under model misspecification and the superiority of the performance of the proposed method over existing competitors. The method is applied to analyse real case studies on epidemiological surveillance. The results provide interesting insight on the heterogeneity and dependence involved in the capture-recapture mechanism. The methodology proposed can assist in effective decision-making and policy formulation.

We study the mixing time of the single-site update Markov chain, known as the Glauber dynamics, for generating a random independent set of a tree. Our focus is obtaining optimal convergence results for arbitrary trees. We consider the more general problem of sampling from the Gibbs distribution in the hard-core model where independent sets are weighted by a parameter $\lambda>0$. Previous work of Martinelli, Sinclair and Weitz (2004) obtained optimal mixing time bounds for the complete $\Delta$-regular tree for all $\lambda$. However, Restrepo et al. (2014) showed that for sufficiently large $\lambda$ there are bounded-degree trees where optimal mixing does not hold. Recent work of Eppstein and Frishberg (2022) proved a polynomial mixing time bound for the Glauber dynamics for arbitrary trees, and more generally for graphs of bounded tree-width. We establish an optimal bound on the relaxation time (i.e., inverse spectral gap) of $O(n)$ for the Glauber dynamics for unweighted independent sets on arbitrary trees. Moreover, for $\lambda\leq .44$ we prove an optimal mixing time bound of $O(n\log{n})$. We stress that our results hold for arbitrary trees and there is no dependence on the maximum degree $\Delta$. Interestingly, our results extend (far) beyond the uniqueness threshold which is on the order $\lambda=O(1/\Delta)$. Our proof approach is inspired by recent work on spectral independence. In fact, we prove that spectral independence holds with a constant independent of the maximum degree for any tree, but this does not imply mixing for general trees as the optimal mixing results of Chen, Liu, and Vigoda (2021) only apply for bounded degree graphs. We instead utilize the combinatorial nature of independent sets to directly prove approximate tensorization of variance/entropy via a non-trivial inductive proof.

We introduce a physics-driven deep latent variable model (PDDLVM) to learn simultaneously parameter-to-solution (forward) and solution-to-parameter (inverse) maps of parametric partial differential equations (PDEs). Our formulation leverages conventional PDE discretization techniques, deep neural networks, probabilistic modelling, and variational inference to assemble a fully probabilistic coherent framework. In the posited probabilistic model, both the forward and inverse maps are approximated as Gaussian distributions with a mean and covariance parameterized by deep neural networks. The PDE residual is assumed to be an observed random vector of value zero, hence we model it as a random vector with a zero mean and a user-prescribed covariance. The model is trained by maximizing the probability, that is the evidence or marginal likelihood, of observing a residual of zero by maximizing the evidence lower bound (ELBO). Consequently, the proposed methodology does not require any independent PDE solves and is physics-informed at training time, allowing the real-time solution of PDE forward and inverse problems after training. The proposed framework can be easily extended to seamlessly integrate observed data to solve inverse problems and to build generative models. We demonstrate the efficiency and robustness of our method on finite element discretized parametric PDE problems such as linear and nonlinear Poisson problems, elastic shells with complex 3D geometries, and time-dependent nonlinear and inhomogeneous PDEs using a physics-informed neural network (PINN) discretization. We achieve up to three orders of magnitude speed-up after training compared to traditional finite element method (FEM), while outputting coherent uncertainty estimates.