We consider nonparametric invariant density and drift estimation for a class of multidimensional degenerate resp. hypoelliptic diffusion processes, so-called stochastic damping Hamiltonian systems or kinetic diffusions, under anisotropic smoothness assumptions on the unknown functions. The analysis is based on continuous observations of the process, and the estimators' performance is measured in terms of the sup-norm loss. Regarding invariant density estimation, we obtain highly nonclassical results for the rate of convergence, which reflect the inhomogeneous variance structure of the process. Concerning estimation of the drift vector, we suggest both non-adaptive and fully data-driven procedures. All of the aforementioned results strongly rely on tight uniform moment bounds for empirical processes associated to deterministic and stochastic integrals of the investigated process, which are also proven in this paper.
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We propose a new method for the estimation of a semiparametric tempered stable L\'{e}vy model. The estimation procedure combines iteratively an approximate semiparametric method of moment estimator, Truncated Realized Quadratic Variations (TRQV), and a newly found small-time high-order approximation for the optimal threshold of the TRQV of tempered stable processes. The method is tested via simulations to estimate the volatility and the Blumenthal-Getoor index of the generalized CGMY model as well as the integrated volatility of a Heston-type model with CGMY jumps. The method outperforms other efficient alternatives proposed in the literature when working with a L\'evy process (i.e., the volatility is constant), or when the index of jump intensity $Y$ is larger than $3/2$ in the presence of stochastic volatility.
This paper addresses the following question: given a sample of i.i.d. random variables with finite variance, can one construct an estimator of the unknown mean that performs nearly as well as if the data were normally distributed? One of the most popular examples achieving this goal is the median of means estimator. However, it is inefficient in a sense that the constants in the resulting bounds are suboptimal. We show that a permutation-invariant modification of the median of means estimator admits deviation guarantees that are sharp up to $1+o(1)$ factor if the underlying distribution possesses $3+p$ moments for some $p>0$ and is absolutely continuous with respect to the Lebesgue measure. This result yields potential improvements for a variety of algorithms that rely on the median of means estimator as a building block. At the core of our argument is a new deviation inequality for the U-statistics of order that is allowed to grow with the sample size, a result that could be of independent interest. Finally, we demonstrate that a hybrid of the median of means and Catoni's estimator is capable of achieving sub-Gaussian deviation guarantees with nearly optimal constants assuming just the existence of the second moment.
In the computational sciences, one must often estimate model parameters from data subject to noise and uncertainty, leading to inaccurate results. In order to improve the accuracy of models with noisy parameters, we consider the problem of reducing error in a linear system with the operator corrupted by noise. Our contribution in this paper is to extend the elliptic operator shifting framework from Etter, Ying '20 to the general nonsymmetric matrix case. Roughly, the operator shifting technique is a matrix analogue of the James-Stein estimator. The key insight is that a shift of the matrix inverse estimate in an appropriately chosen direction will reduce average error. In our extension, we interrogate a number of questions -- namely, whether or not shifting towards the origin for general matrix inverses always reduces error as it does in the elliptic case. We show that this is usually the case, but that there are three key features of the general nonsingular matrices that allow for adversarial examples not possible in the symmetric case. We prove that when these adversarial possibilities are eliminated by the assumption of noise symmetry and the use of the residual norm as the error metric, the optimal shift is always towards the origin, mirroring results from Etter, Ying '20. We also investigate behavior in the small noise regime and other scenarios. We conclude by presenting numerical experiments (with accompanying source code) inspired by Reinforcement Learning to demonstrate that operator shifting can yield substantial reductions in error.
We introduce the first direct policy search algorithm which provably converges to the globally optimal $\textit{dynamic}$ filter for the classical problem of predicting the outputs of a linear dynamical system, given noisy, partial observations. Despite the ubiquity of partial observability in practice, theoretical guarantees for direct policy search algorithms, one of the backbones of modern reinforcement learning, have proven difficult to achieve. This is primarily due to the degeneracies which arise when optimizing over filters that maintain internal state. In this paper, we provide a new perspective on this challenging problem based on the notion of $\textit{informativity}$, which intuitively requires that all components of a filter's internal state are representative of the true state of the underlying dynamical system. We show that informativity overcomes the aforementioned degeneracy. Specifically, we propose a $\textit{regularizer}$ which explicitly enforces informativity, and establish that gradient descent on this regularized objective - combined with a ``reconditioning step'' - converges to the globally optimal cost a $\mathcal{O}(1/T)$. Our analysis relies on several new results which may be of independent interest, including a new framework for analyzing non-convex gradient descent via convex reformulation, and novel bounds on the solution to linear Lyapunov equations in terms of (our quantitative measure of) informativity.
We study stochastic convex optimization under infinite noise variance. Specifically, when the stochastic gradient is unbiased and has uniformly bounded $(1+\kappa)$-th moment, for some $\kappa \in (0,1]$, we quantify the convergence rate of the Stochastic Mirror Descent algorithm with a particular class of uniformly convex mirror maps, in terms of the number of iterations, dimensionality and related geometric parameters of the optimization problem. Interestingly this algorithm does not require any explicit gradient clipping or normalization, which have been extensively used in several recent empirical and theoretical works. We complement our convergence results with information-theoretic lower bounds showing that no other algorithm using only stochastic first-order oracles can achieve improved rates. Our results have several interesting consequences for devising online/streaming stochastic approximation algorithms for problems arising in robust statistics and machine learning.
Stochastic dual dynamic programming is a cutting plane type algorithm for multi-stage stochastic optimization originated about 30 years ago. In spite of its popularity in practice, there does not exist any analysis on the convergence rates of this method. In this paper, we first establish the number of iterations, i.e., iteration complexity, required by a basic dynamic cutting plane method for solving relatively simple multi-stage optimization problems, by introducing novel mathematical tools including the saturation of search points. We then refine these basic tools and establish the iteration complexity for both deterministic and stochastic dual dynamic programming methods for solving more general multi-stage stochastic optimization problems under the standard stage-wise independence assumption. Our results indicate that the complexity of some deterministic variants of these methods mildly increases with the number of stages $T$, in fact linearly dependent on $T$ for discounted problems. Therefore, they are efficient for strategic decision making which involves a large number of stages, but with a relatively small number of decision variables in each stage. Without explicitly discretizing the state and action spaces, these methods might also be pertinent to the related reinforcement learning and stochastic control areas.
The Dynamic Mode Decomposition has proved to be a very efficient technique to study dynamic data. This is entirely a data-driven approach that extracts all necessary information from data snapshots which are commonly supposed to be sampled from measurement. The application of this approach becomes problematic if the available data is incomplete because some dimensions of smaller scale either missing or unmeasured. Such setting occurs very often in modeling complex dynamical systems such as power grids, in particular with reduced-order modeling. To take into account the effect of unresolved variables the optimal prediction approach based on the Mori-Zwanzig formalism can be applied to obtain the most expected prediction under existing uncertainties. This effectively leads to the development of a time-predictive model accounting for the impact of missing data. In the present paper we provide a detailed derivation of the considered method from the Liouville equation and finalize it with the optimization problem that defines the optimal transition operator corresponding to the observed data. In contrast to the existing approach, we consider a first-order approximation of the Mori-Zwanzig decomposition, state the corresponding optimization problem and solve it with the gradient-based optimization method. The gradient of the obtained objective function is computed precisely through the automatic differentiation technique. The numerical experiments illustrate that the considered approach gives practically the same dynamics as the exact Mori-Zwanzig decomposition, but is less computationally intensive.
One pervasive task found throughout the empirical sciences is to determine the effect of interventions from non-experimental data. It is well-understood that assumptions are necessary to perform causal inferences, which are commonly articulated through causal diagrams (Pearl, 2000). Despite the power of this approach, there are settings where the knowledge necessary to specify a causal diagram over all observed variables may not be available, particularly in complex, high-dimensional domains. In this paper, we introduce a new type of graphical model called cluster causal diagrams (for short, C-DAGs) that allows for the partial specification of relationships among variables based on limited prior knowledge, alleviating the stringent requirement of specifying a full causal diagram. A C-DAG specifies relationships between clusters of variables, while the relationships between the variables within a cluster are left unspecified. We develop the foundations and machinery for valid causal inferences over C-DAGs. In particular, we first define a new version of the d-separation criterion and prove its soundness and completeness. Secondly, we extend these new separation rules and prove the validity of the corresponding do-calculus. Lastly, we show that a standard identification algorithm is sound and complete to systematically compute causal effects from observational data given a C-DAG.
Subspace learning and matrix factorization problems have great many applications in science and engineering, and efficient algorithms are critical as dataset sizes continue to grow. Many relevant problem formulations are non-convex, and in a variety of contexts it has been observed that solving the non-convex problem directly is not only efficient but reliably accurate. We discuss convergence theory for a particular method: first order incremental gradient descent constrained to the Grassmannian. The output of the algorithm is an orthonormal basis for a $d$-dimensional subspace spanned by an input streaming data matrix. We study two sampling cases: where each data vector of the streaming matrix is fully sampled, or where it is undersampled by a sampling matrix $A_t\in \mathbb{R}^{m\times n}$ with $m\ll n$. Our results cover two cases, where $A_t$ is Gaussian or a subset of rows of the identity matrix. We propose an adaptive stepsize scheme that depends only on the sampled data and algorithm outputs. We prove that with fully sampled data, the stepsize scheme maximizes the improvement of our convergence metric at each iteration, and this method converges from any random initialization to the true subspace, despite the non-convex formulation and orthogonality constraints. For the case of undersampled data, we establish monotonic expected improvement on the defined convergence metric for each iteration with high probability.
We develop an approach to risk minimization and stochastic optimization that provides a convex surrogate for variance, allowing near-optimal and computationally efficient trading between approximation and estimation error. Our approach builds off of techniques for distributionally robust optimization and Owen's empirical likelihood, and we provide a number of finite-sample and asymptotic results characterizing the theoretical performance of the estimator. In particular, we show that our procedure comes with certificates of optimality, achieving (in some scenarios) faster rates of convergence than empirical risk minimization by virtue of automatically balancing bias and variance. We give corroborating empirical evidence showing that in practice, the estimator indeed trades between variance and absolute performance on a training sample, improving out-of-sample (test) performance over standard empirical risk minimization for a number of classification problems.
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