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A treatment policy defines when and what treatments are applied to affect some outcome of interest. Data-driven decision-making requires the ability to predict what happens if a policy is changed. Existing methods that predict how the outcome evolves under different scenarios assume that the tentative sequences of future treatments are fixed in advance, while in practice the treatments are determined stochastically by a policy and may depend for example on the efficiency of previous treatments. Therefore, the current methods are not applicable if the treatment policy is unknown or a counterfactual analysis is needed. To handle these limitations, we model the treatments and outcomes jointly in continuous time, by combining Gaussian processes and point processes. Our model enables the estimation of a treatment policy from observational sequences of treatments and outcomes, and it can predict the interventional and counterfactual progression of the outcome after an intervention on the treatment policy (in contrast with the causal effect of a single treatment). We show with real-world and semi-synthetic data on blood glucose progression that our method can answer causal queries more accurately than existing alternatives.

Generative Flow Networks or GFlowNets are related to Monte-Carlo Markov chain methods (as they sample from a distribution specified by an energy function), reinforcement learning (as they learn a policy to sample composed objects through a sequence of steps), generative models (as they learn to represent and sample from a distribution) and amortized variational methods (as they can be used to learn to approximate and sample from an otherwise intractable posterior, given a prior and a likelihood). They are trained to generate an object $x$ through a sequence of steps with probability proportional to some reward function $R(x)$ (or $\exp(-\mathcal{E}(x))$ with $\mathcal{E}(x)$ denoting the energy function), given at the end of the generative trajectory. Like for other RL settings where the reward is only given at the end, the efficiency of training and credit assignment may suffer when those trajectories are longer. With previous GFlowNet work, no learning was possible from incomplete trajectories (lacking a terminal state and the computation of the associated reward). In this paper, we consider the case where the energy function can be applied not just to terminal states but also to intermediate states. This is for example achieved when the energy function is additive, with terms available along the trajectory. We show how to reparameterize the GFlowNet state flow function to take advantage of the partial reward already accrued at each state. This enables a training objective that can be applied to update parameters even with incomplete trajectories. Even when complete trajectories are available, being able to obtain more localized credit and gradients is found to speed up training convergence, as demonstrated across many simulations.

Gradient Balancing (GraB) is a recently proposed technique that finds provably better data permutations when training models with multiple epochs over a finite dataset. It converges at a faster rate than the widely adopted Random Reshuffling, by minimizing the discrepancy of the gradients on adjacently selected examples. However, GraB only operates under critical assumptions such as small batch sizes and centralized data, leaving open the question of how to order examples at large scale -- i.e. distributed learning with decentralized data. To alleviate the limitation, in this paper we propose D-GraB that involves two novel designs: (1) $\textsf{PairBalance}$ that eliminates the requirement to use stale gradient mean in GraB which critically relies on small learning rates; (2) an ordering protocol that runs $\textsf{PairBalance}$ in a distributed environment with negligible overhead, which benefits from both data ordering and parallelism. We prove D-GraB enjoys linear speed up at rate $\tilde{O}((mnT)^{-2/3})$ on smooth non-convex objectives and $\tilde{O}((mnT)^{-2})$ under PL condition, where $n$ denotes the number of parallel workers, $m$ denotes the number of examples per worker and $T$ denotes the number of epochs. Empirically, we show on various applications including GLUE, CIFAR10 and WikiText-2 that D-GraB outperforms naive parallel GraB and Distributed Random Reshuffling in terms of both training and validation performance.

In the dominant paradigm for designing equitable machine learning systems, one works to ensure that model predictions satisfy various fairness criteria, such as parity in error rates across race, gender, and other legally protected traits. That approach, however, typically ignores the downstream decisions and outcomes that predictions affect, and, as a result, can induce unexpected harms. Here we present an alternative framework for fairness that directly anticipates the consequences of decisions. Stakeholders first specify preferences over the possible outcomes of an algorithmically informed decision-making process. For example, lenders may prefer extending credit to those most likely to repay a loan, while also preferring similar lending rates across neighborhoods. One then searches the space of decision policies to maximize the specified utility. We develop and describe a method for efficiently learning these optimal policies from data for a large family of expressive utility functions, facilitating a more holistic approach to equitable decision-making.

Motivated by the dynamic modeling of relative abundance data in ecology, we introduce a general approach to model time series on the simplex. Our approach is based on a general construction of infinite memory models, called chains with complete connections. Simple conditions ensuring the existence of stationary paths are given for the transition kernel that defines the dynamic. We then study in details two specific examples with a Dirichlet and a multivariate logistic-normal conditional distribution. Inference methods can be based on either likelihood maximization or on some convex criteria that can be used to initialize likelihood optimization. We also give an interpretation of our models in term of additive perturbations on the simplex and relative risk ratios which are useful to analyze abundance data in ecosystems. An illustration concerning the evolution of the distribution of three species of Scandinavian birds is provided.

In consumer theory, ranking available objects by means of preference relations yields the most common description of individual choices. However, preference-based models assume that individuals: (1) give their preferences only between pairs of objects; (2) are always able to pick the best preferred object. In many situations, they may be instead choosing out of a set with more than two elements and, because of lack of information and/or incomparability (objects with contradictory characteristics), they may not able to select a single most preferred object. To address these situations, we need a choice-model which allows an individual to express a set-valued choice. Choice functions provide such a mathematical framework. We propose a Gaussian Process model to learn choice functions from choice-data. The proposed model assumes a multiple utility representation of a choice function based on the concept of Pareto rationalization, and derives a strategy to learn both the number and the values of these latent multiple utilities. Simulation experiments demonstrate that the proposed model outperforms the state-of-the-art methods.

In this paper, we study the identifiability and the estimation of the parameters of a copula-based multivariate model when the margins are unknown and are arbitrary, meaning that they can be continuous, discrete, or mixtures of continuous and discrete. When at least one margin is not continuous, the range of values determining the copula is not the entire unit square and this situation could lead to identifiability issues that are discussed here. Next, we propose estimation methods when the margins are unknown and arbitrary, using pseudo log-likelihood adapted to the case of discontinuities. In view of applications to large data sets, we also propose a pairwise composite pseudo log-likelihood. These methodologies can also be easily modified to cover the case of parametric margins. One of the main theoretical result is an extension to arbitrary distributions of known convergence results of rank-based statistics when the margins are continuous. As a by-product, under smoothness assumptions, we obtain that the asymptotic distribution of the estimation errors of our estimators are Gaussian. Finally, numerical experiments are presented to assess the finite sample performance of the estimators, and the usefulness of the proposed methodologies is illustrated with a copula-based regression model for hydrological data.

The problem of generalization and transportation of treatment effect estimates from a study sample to a target population is central to empirical research and statistical methodology. In both randomized experiments and observational studies, weighting methods are often used with this objective. Traditional methods construct the weights by separately modeling the treatment assignment and study selection probabilities and then multiplying functions (e.g., inverses) of their estimates. In this work, we provide a justification and an implementation for weighting in a single step. We show a formal connection between this one-step method and inverse probability and inverse odds weighting. We demonstrate that the resulting estimator for the target average treatment effect is consistent, asymptotically Normal, multiply robust, and semiparametrically efficient. We evaluate the performance of the one-step estimator in a simulation study. We illustrate its use in a case study on the effects of physician racial diversity on preventive healthcare utilization among Black men in California. We provide R code implementing the methodology.

One way of introducing sparsity into deep networks is by attaching an external table of parameters that is sparsely looked up at different layers of the network. By storing the bulk of the parameters in the external table, one can increase the capacity of the model without necessarily increasing the inference time. Two crucial questions in this setting are then: what is the lookup function for accessing the table and how are the contents of the table consumed? Prominent methods for accessing the table include 1) using words/wordpieces token-ids as table indices, 2) LSH hashing the token vector in each layer into a table of buckets, and 3) learnable softmax style routing to a table entry. The ways to consume the contents include adding/concatenating to input representation, and using the contents as expert networks that specialize to different inputs. In this work, we conduct rigorous experimental evaluations of existing ideas and their combinations. We also introduce a new method, alternating updates, that enables access to an increased token dimension without increasing the computation time, and demonstrate its effectiveness in language modeling.

Current deep learning research is dominated by benchmark evaluation. A method is regarded as favorable if it empirically performs well on the dedicated test set. This mentality is seamlessly reflected in the resurfacing area of continual learning, where consecutively arriving sets of benchmark data are investigated. The core challenge is framed as protecting previously acquired representations from being catastrophically forgotten due to the iterative parameter updates. However, comparison of individual methods is nevertheless treated in isolation from real world application and typically judged by monitoring accumulated test set performance. The closed world assumption remains predominant. It is assumed that during deployment a model is guaranteed to encounter data that stems from the same distribution as used for training. This poses a massive challenge as neural networks are well known to provide overconfident false predictions on unknown instances and break down in the face of corrupted data. In this work we argue that notable lessons from open set recognition, the identification of statistically deviating data outside of the observed dataset, and the adjacent field of active learning, where data is incrementally queried such that the expected performance gain is maximized, are frequently overlooked in the deep learning era. Based on these forgotten lessons, we propose a consolidated view to bridge continual learning, active learning and open set recognition in deep neural networks. Our results show that this not only benefits each individual paradigm, but highlights the natural synergies in a common framework. We empirically demonstrate improvements when alleviating catastrophic forgetting, querying data in active learning, selecting task orders, while exhibiting robust open world application where previously proposed methods fail.