We review Quasi Maximum Likelihood estimation of factor models for high-dimensional panels of time series. We consider two cases: (1) estimation when no dynamic model for the factors is specified (Bai and Li, 2016); (2) estimation based on the Kalman smoother and the Expectation Maximization algorithm thus allowing to model explicitly the factor dynamics (Doz et al., 2012). Our interest is in approximate factor models, i.e., when we allow for the idiosyncratic components to be mildly cross-sectionally, as well as serially, correlated. Although such setting apparently makes estimation harder, we show, in fact, that factor models do not suffer of the curse of dimensionality problem, but instead they enjoy a blessing of dimensionality property. In particular, given an approximate factor structure, if the cross-sectional dimension of the data, $N$, grows to infinity, we show that: (i) identification of the model is still possible, (ii) the mis-specification error due to the use of an exact factor model log-likelihood vanishes. Moreover, if we let also the sample size, $T$, grow to infinity, we can also consistently estimate all parameters of the model and make inference. The same is true for estimation of the latent factors which can be carried out by weighted least-squares, linear projection, or Kalman filtering/smoothing. We also compare the approaches presented with: Principal Component analysis and the classical, fixed $N$, exact Maximum Likelihood approach. We conclude with a discussion on efficiency of the considered estimators.
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This paper considers the problem of learning a single ReLU neuron with squared loss (a.k.a., ReLU regression) in the overparameterized regime, where the input dimension can exceed the number of samples. We analyze a Perceptron-type algorithm called GLM-tron (Kakade et al., 2011) and provide its dimension-free risk upper bounds for high-dimensional ReLU regression in both well-specified and misspecified settings. Our risk bounds recover several existing results as special cases. Moreover, in the well-specified setting, we provide an instance-wise matching risk lower bound for GLM-tron. Our upper and lower risk bounds provide a sharp characterization of the high-dimensional ReLU regression problems that can be learned via GLM-tron. On the other hand, we provide some negative results for stochastic gradient descent (SGD) for ReLU regression with symmetric Bernoulli data: if the model is well-specified, the excess risk of SGD is provably no better than that of GLM-tron ignoring constant factors, for each problem instance; and in the noiseless case, GLM-tron can achieve a small risk while SGD unavoidably suffers from a constant risk in expectation. These results together suggest that GLM-tron might be preferable to SGD for high-dimensional ReLU regression.
Unobserved confounding is a fundamental obstacle to establishing valid causal conclusions from observational data. Two complementary types of approaches have been developed to address this obstacle: obtaining identification using fortuitous external aids, such as instrumental variables or proxies, or by means of the ID algorithm, using Markov restrictions on the full data distribution encoded in graphical causal models. In this paper we aim to develop a synthesis of the former and latter approaches to identification in causal inference to yield the most general identification algorithm in multivariate systems currently known -- the proximal ID algorithm. In addition to being able to obtain nonparametric identification in all cases where the ID algorithm succeeds, our approach allows us to systematically exploit proxies to adjust for the presence of unobserved confounders that would have otherwise prevented identification. In addition, we outline a class of estimation strategies for causal parameters identified by our method in an important special case. We illustrate our approach by simulation studies and a data application.
We consider the problem of estimating a scalar target parameter in the presence of nuisance parameters. Replacing the unknown nuisance parameter with a nonparametric estimator, e.g.,a machine learning (ML) model, is convenient but has shown to be inefficient due to large biases. Modern methods, such as the targeted minimum loss-based estimation (TMLE) and double machine learning (DML), achieve optimal performance under flexible assumptions by harnessing ML estimates while mitigating the plug-in bias. To avoid a sub-optimal bias-variance trade-off, these methods perform a debiasing step of the plug-in pre-estimate. Existing debiasing methods require the influence function of the target parameter as input. However, deriving the IF requires specialized expertise and thus obstructs the adaptation of these methods by practitioners. We propose a novel way to debias plug-in estimators which (i) is efficient, (ii) does not require the IF to be implemented, (iii) is computationally tractable, and therefore can be readily adapted to new estimation problems and automated without analytic derivations by the user. We build on the TMLE framework and update a plug-in estimate with a regularized likelihood maximization step over a nonparametric model constructed with a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS), producing an efficient plug-in estimate for any regular target parameter. Our method, thus, offers the efficiency of competing debiasing techniques without sacrificing the utility of the plug-in approach.
This paper proposes an adaptive penalized weighted mean regression for outlier detection of high-dimensional data. In comparison to existing approaches based on the mean shift model, the proposed estimators demonstrate robustness against outliers present in both response variables and/or covariates. By utilizing the adaptive Huber loss function, the proposed method is effective in high-dimensional linear models characterized by heavy-tailed and heteroscedastic error distributions. The proposed framework enables simultaneous and collaborative estimation of regression parameters and outlier detection. Under regularity conditions, outlier detection consistency and oracle inequalities of robust estimates in high-dimensional settings are established. Additionally, theoretical robustness properties, such as the breakdown point and a smoothed limiting influence function, are ascertained. Extensive simulation studies and a breast cancer survival data are used to evaluate the numerical performance of the proposed method, demonstrating comparable or superior variable selection and outlier detection capabilities.
In this work we consider a model problem of deep neural learning, namely the learning of a given function when it is assumed that we have access to its point values on a finite set of points. The deep neural network interpolant is the the resulting approximation of f, which is obtained by a typical machine learning algorithm involving a given DNN architecture and an optimisation step, which is assumed to be solved exactly. These are among the simplest regression algorithms based on neural networks. In this work we introduce a new approach to the estimation of the (generalisation) error and to convergence. Our results include (i) estimates of the error without any structural assumption on the neural networks and under mild regularity assumptions on the learning function f (ii) convergence of the approximations to the target function f by only requiring that the neural network spaces have appropriate approximation capability.
Image captioning aims to describe visual content in natural language. As 'a picture is worth a thousand words', there could be various correct descriptions for an image. However, with maximum likelihood estimation as the training objective, the captioning model is penalized whenever its prediction mismatches with the label. For instance, when the model predicts a word expressing richer semantics than the label, it will be penalized and optimized to prefer more concise expressions, referred to as conciseness optimization. In contrast, predictions that are more concise than labels lead to richness optimization. Such conflicting optimization directions could eventually result in the model generating general descriptions. In this work, we introduce Semipermeable MaxImum Likelihood Estimation (SMILE), which allows richness optimization while blocking conciseness optimization, thus encouraging the model to generate longer captions with more details. Extensive experiments on two mainstream image captioning datasets MSCOCO and Flickr30K demonstrate that SMILE significantly enhances the descriptiveness of generated captions. We further provide in-depth investigations to facilitate a better understanding of how SMILE works.
This paper presents a novel approach to Bayesian nonparametric spectral analysis of stationary multivariate time series. Starting with a parametric vector-autoregressive model, the parametric likelihood is nonparametrically adjusted in the frequency domain to account for potential deviations from parametric assumptions. We show mutual contiguity of the nonparametrically corrected likelihood, the multivariate Whittle likelihood approximation and the exact likelihood for Gaussian time series. A multivariate extension of the nonparametric Bernstein-Dirichlet process prior for univariate spectral densities to the space of Hermitian positive definite spectral density matrices is specified directly on the correction matrices. An infinite series representation of this prior is then used to develop a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm to sample from the posterior distribution. The code is made publicly available for ease of use and reproducibility. With this novel approach we provide a generalization of the multivariate Whittle-likelihood-based method of Meier et al. (2020) as well as an extension of the nonparametrically corrected likelihood for univariate stationary time series of Kirch et al. (2019) to the multivariate case. We demonstrate that the nonparametrically corrected likelihood combines the efficiencies of a parametric with the robustness of a nonparametric model. Its numerical accuracy is illustrated in a comprehensive simulation study. We illustrate its practical advantages by a spectral analysis of two environmental time series data sets: a bivariate time series of the Southern Oscillation Index and fish recruitment and time series of windspeed data at six locations in California.
We propose a model to flexibly estimate joint tail properties by exploiting the convergence of an appropriately scaled point cloud onto a compact limit set. Characteristics of the shape of the limit set correspond to key tail dependence properties. We directly model the shape of the limit set using B\'ezier splines, which allow flexible and parsimonious specification of shapes in two dimensions. We then fit the B\'ezier splines to data in pseudo-polar coordinates using Markov chain Monte Carlo, utilizing a limiting approximation to the conditional likelihood of the radii given angles. By imposing appropriate constraints on the parameters of the B\'ezier splines, we guarantee that each posterior sample is a valid limit set boundary, allowing direct posterior analysis of any quantity derived from the shape of the curve. Furthermore, we obtain interpretable inference on the asymptotic dependence class by using mixture priors with point masses on the corner of the unit box. Finally, we apply our model to bivariate datasets of extremes of variables related to fire risk and air pollution.
We consider a symmetric mixture of linear regressions with random samples from the pairwise comparison design, which can be seen as a noisy version of a type of Euclidean distance geometry problem. We analyze the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm locally around the ground truth and establish that the sequence converges linearly, providing an $\ell_\infty$-norm guarantee on the estimation error of the iterates. Furthermore, we show that the limit of the EM sequence achieves the sharp rate of estimation in the $\ell_2$-norm, matching the information-theoretically optimal constant. We also argue through simulation that convergence from a random initialization is much more delicate in this setting, and does not appear to occur in general. Our results show that the EM algorithm can exhibit several unique behaviors when the covariate distribution is suitably structured.
Latent variable models are powerful tools for modeling complex phenomena involving in particular partially observed data, unobserved variables or underlying complex unknown structures. Inference is often difficult due to the latent structure of the model. To deal with parameter estimation in the presence of latent variables, well-known efficient methods exist, such as gradient-based and EM-type algorithms, but with practical and theoretical limitations. In this paper, we propose as an alternative for parameter estimation an efficient preconditioned stochastic gradient algorithm. Our method includes a preconditioning step based on a positive definite Fisher information matrix estimate. We prove convergence results for the proposed algorithm under mild assumptions for very general latent variables models. We illustrate through relevant simulations the performance of the proposed methodology in a nonlinear mixed effects model and in a stochastic block model.
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