This paper presents a novel approach to Bayesian nonparametric spectral analysis of stationary multivariate time series. Starting with a parametric vector-autoregressive model, the parametric likelihood is nonparametrically adjusted in the frequency domain to account for potential deviations from parametric assumptions. We show mutual contiguity of the nonparametrically corrected likelihood, the multivariate Whittle likelihood approximation and the exact likelihood for Gaussian time series. A multivariate extension of the nonparametric Bernstein-Dirichlet process prior for univariate spectral densities to the space of Hermitian positive definite spectral density matrices is specified directly on the correction matrices. An infinite series representation of this prior is then used to develop a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm to sample from the posterior distribution. The code is made publicly available for ease of use and reproducibility. With this novel approach we provide a generalization of the multivariate Whittle-likelihood-based method of Meier et al. (2020) as well as an extension of the nonparametrically corrected likelihood for univariate stationary time series of Kirch et al. (2019) to the multivariate case. We demonstrate that the nonparametrically corrected likelihood combines the efficiencies of a parametric with the robustness of a nonparametric model. Its numerical accuracy is illustrated in a comprehensive simulation study. We illustrate its practical advantages by a spectral analysis of two environmental time series data sets: a bivariate time series of the Southern Oscillation Index and fish recruitment and time series of windspeed data at six locations in California.
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We propose a generalization of nonlinear stability of numerical one-step integrators to Riemannian manifolds in the spirit of Butcher's notion of B-stability. Taking inspiration from Simpson-Porco and Bullo, we introduce non-expansive systems on such manifolds and define B-stability of integrators. In this first exposition, we provide concrete results for a geodesic version of the Implicit Euler (GIE) scheme. We prove that the GIE method is B-stable on Riemannian manifolds with non-positive sectional curvature. We show through numerical examples that the GIE method is expansive when applied to a certain non-expansive vector field on the 2-sphere, and that the GIE method does not necessarily possess a unique solution for large enough step sizes. Finally, we derive a new improved global error estimate for general Lie group integrators.
Latitude on the choice of initialisation is a shared feature between one-step extended state-space and multi-step methods. The paper focuses on lattice Boltzmann schemes, which can be interpreted as examples of both previous categories of numerical schemes. We propose a modified equation analysis of the initialisation schemes for lattice Boltzmann methods, determined by the choice of initial data. These modified equations provide guidelines to devise and analyze the initialisation in terms of order of consistency with respect to the target Cauchy problem and time smoothness of the numerical solution. In detail, the larger the number of matched terms between modified equations for initialisation and bulk methods, the smoother the obtained numerical solution. This is particularly manifest for numerical dissipation. Starting from the constraints to achieve time smoothness, which can quickly become prohibitive for they have to take the parasitic modes into consideration, we explain how the distinct lack of observability for certain lattice Boltzmann schemes -- seen as dynamical systems on a commutative ring -- can yield rather simple conditions and be easily studied as far as their initialisation is concerned. This comes from the reduced number of initialisation schemes at the fully discrete level. These theoretical results are successfully assessed on several lattice Boltzmann methods.
Discrete latent space models have recently achieved performance on par with their continuous counterparts in deep variational inference. While they still face various implementation challenges, these models offer the opportunity for a better interpretation of latent spaces, as well as a more direct representation of naturally discrete phenomena. Most recent approaches propose to train separately very high-dimensional prior models on the discrete latent data which is a challenging task on its own. In this paper, we introduce a latent data model where the discrete state is a Markov chain, which allows fast end-to-end training. The performance of our generative model is assessed on a building management dataset and on the publicly available Electricity Transformer Dataset.
In this paper, we introduce a novel numerical approach for approximating the SIR model in epidemiology. Our method enhances the existing linearization procedure by incorporating a suitable relaxation term to tackle the transcendental equation of nonlinear type. Developed within the continuous framework, our relaxation method is explicit and easy to implement, relying on a sequence of linear differential equations. This approach yields accurate approximations in both discrete and analytical forms. Through rigorous analysis, we prove that, with an appropriate choice of the relaxation parameter, our numerical scheme is non-negativity-preserving and globally strongly convergent towards the true solution. These theoretical findings have not received sufficient attention in various existing SIR solvers. We also extend the applicability of our relaxation method to handle some variations of the traditional SIR model. Finally, we present numerical examples using simulated data to demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed method.
This paper derives a discrete dual problem for a prototypical hybrid high-order method for convex minimization problems. The discrete primal and dual problem satisfy a weak convex duality that leads to a priori error estimates with convergence rates under additional smoothness assumptions. This duality holds for general polytopal meshes and arbitrary polynomial degree of the discretization. A nouvelle postprocessing is proposed and allows for a~posteriori error estimates on simplicial meshes using primal-dual techniques. This motivates an adaptive mesh-refining algorithm, which performs superiorly compared to uniform mesh refinements.
Confidence intervals based on the central limit theorem (CLT) are a cornerstone of classical statistics. Despite being only asymptotically valid, they are ubiquitous because they permit statistical inference under very weak assumptions, and can often be applied to problems even when nonasymptotic inference is impossible. This paper introduces time-uniform analogues of such asymptotic confidence intervals. To elaborate, our methods take the form of confidence sequences (CS) -- sequences of confidence intervals that are uniformly valid over time. CSs provide valid inference at arbitrary stopping times, incurring no penalties for "peeking" at the data, unlike classical confidence intervals which require the sample size to be fixed in advance. Existing CSs in the literature are nonasymptotic, and hence do not enjoy the aforementioned broad applicability of asymptotic confidence intervals. Our work bridges the gap by giving a definition for "asymptotic CSs", and deriving a universal asymptotic CS that requires only weak CLT-like assumptions. While the CLT approximates the distribution of a sample average by that of a Gaussian at a fixed sample size, we use strong invariance principles (stemming from the seminal 1960s work of Strassen and improvements by Koml\'os, Major, and Tusn\'ady) to uniformly approximate the entire sample average process by an implicit Gaussian process. As an illustration of our theory, we derive asymptotic CSs for the average treatment effect using efficient estimators in observational studies (for which no nonasymptotic bounds can exist even in the fixed-time regime) as well as randomized experiments, enabling causal inference that can be continuously monitored and adaptively stopped.
We provide a non-unit disk framework to solve combinatorial optimization problems such as Maximum Cut (Max-Cut) and Maximum Independent Set (MIS) on a Rydberg quantum annealer. Our setup consists of a many-body interacting Rydberg system where locally controllable light shifts are applied to individual qubits in order to map the graph problem onto the Ising spin model. Exploiting the flexibility that optical tweezers offer in terms of spatial arrangement, our numerical simulations implement the local-detuning protocol while globally driving the Rydberg annealer to the desired many-body ground state, which is also the solution to the optimization problem. Using optimal control methods, these solutions are obtained for prototype graphs with varying sizes at time scales well within the system lifetime and with approximation ratios close to one. The non-blockade approach facilitates the encoding of graph problems with specific topologies that can be realized in two-dimensional Rydberg configurations and is applicable to both unweighted as well as weighted graphs. A comparative analysis with fast simulated annealing is provided which highlights the advantages of our scheme in terms of system size, hardness of the graph, and the number of iterations required to converge to the solution.
This paper addresses the problem of providing robust estimators under a functional logistic regression model. Logistic regression is a popular tool in classification problems with two populations. As in functional linear regression, regularization tools are needed to compute estimators for the functional slope. The traditional methods are based on dimension reduction or penalization combined with maximum likelihood or quasi--likelihood techniques and for that reason, they may be affected by misclassified points especially if they are associated to functional covariates with atypical behaviour. The proposal given in this paper adapts some of the best practices used when the covariates are finite--dimensional to provide reliable estimations. Under regularity conditions, consistency of the resulting estimators and rates of convergence for the predictions are derived. A numerical study illustrates the finite sample performance of the proposed method and reveals its stability under different contamination scenarios. A real data example is also presented.
A finite element discretization is developed for the Cai-Hu model, describing the formation of biological networks. The model consists of a non linear elliptic equation for the pressure $p$ and a non linear reaction-diffusion equation for the conductivity tensor $\mathbb{C}$. The problem requires high resolution due to the presence of multiple scales, the stiffness in all its components and the non linearities. We propose a low order finite element discretization in space coupled with a semi-implicit time advancing scheme. The code is {verified} with several numerical tests performed with various choices for the parameters involved in the system. In absence of the exact solution, we apply Richardson extrapolation technique to estimate the order of the method.
We analyze connections between two low rank modeling approaches from the last decade for treating dynamical data. The first one is the coherence problem (or coherent set approach), where groups of states are sought that evolve under the action of a stochastic matrix in a way maximally distinguishable from other groups. The second one is a low rank factorization approach for stochastic matrices, called Direct Bayesian Model Reduction (DBMR), which estimates the low rank factors directly from observed data. We show that DBMR results in a low rank model that is a projection of the full model, and exploit this insight to infer bounds on a quantitative measure of coherence within the reduced model. Both approaches can be formulated as optimization problems, and we also prove a bound between their respective objectives. On a broader scope, this work relates the two classical loss functions of nonnegative matrix factorization, namely the Frobenius norm and the generalized Kullback--Leibler divergence, and suggests new links between likelihood-based and projection-based estimation of probabilistic models.
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