亚洲男人的天堂2018av,欧美草比,久久久久久免费视频精选,国色天香在线看免费,久久久久亚洲av成人片仓井空

Dynamic Linear Models (DLMs) are commonly employed for time series analysis due to their versatile structure, simple recursive updating, and probabilistic forecasting. However, the options for count time series are limited: Gaussian DLMs require continuous data, while Poisson-based alternatives often lack sufficient modeling flexibility. We introduce a novel methodology for count time series by warping a Gaussian DLM. The warping function has two components: a transformation operator that provides distributional flexibility and a rounding operator that ensures the correct support for the discrete data-generating process. Importantly, we develop conjugate inference for the warped DLM, which enables analytic and recursive updates for the state space filtering and smoothing distributions. We leverage these results to produce customized and efficient computing strategies for inference and forecasting, including Monte Carlo simulation for offline analysis and an optimal particle filter for online inference. This framework unifies and extends a variety of discrete time series models and is valid for natural counts, rounded values, and multivariate observations. Simulation studies illustrate the excellent forecasting capabilities of the warped DLM. The proposed approach is applied to a multivariate time series of daily overdose counts and demonstrates both modeling and computational successes.

相關內容

對于給定(ding)d個屬(shu)性(xing)(xing)(xing)描述的示例x=(x1,x2,......,xd),通過(guo)屬(shu)性(xing)(xing)(xing)的線(xian)性(xing)(xing)(xing)組合來進行預測(ce)。一般的寫法如下: f(x)=w'x+b,因此,線(xian)性(xing)(xing)(xing)模型具有很(hen)好的解(jie)釋性(xing)(xing)(xing)(understandability,comprehensibility),參數w代(dai)表每(mei)個屬(shu)性(xing)(xing)(xing)在(zai)回(hui)歸過(guo)程中的重要程度。

Scene Background Initialization (SBI) is one of the challenging problems in computer vision. Dynamic mode decomposition (DMD) is a recently proposed method to robustly decompose a video sequence into the background model and the corresponding foreground part. However, this method needs to convert the color image into the grayscale image for processing, which leads to the neglect of the coupling information between the three channels of the color image. In this study, we propose a quaternion-based DMD (Q-DMD), which extends the DMD by quaternion matrix analysis, so as to completely preserve the inherent color structure of the color image and the color video. We exploit the standard eigenvalues of the quaternion matrix to compute its spectral decomposition and calculate the corresponding Q-DMD modes and eigenvalues. The results on the publicly available benchmark datasets prove that our Q-DMD outperforms the exact DMD method, and experiment results also demonstrate that the performance of our approach is comparable to that of the state-of-the-art ones.

Recent advances in Transformer models allow for unprecedented sequence lengths, due to linear space and time complexity. In the meantime, relative positional encoding (RPE) was proposed as beneficial for classical Transformers and consists in exploiting lags instead of absolute positions for inference. Still, RPE is not available for the recent linear-variants of the Transformer, because it requires the explicit computation of the attention matrix, which is precisely what is avoided by such methods. In this paper, we bridge this gap and present Stochastic Positional Encoding as a way to generate PE that can be used as a replacement to the classical additive (sinusoidal) PE and provably behaves like RPE. The main theoretical contribution is to make a connection between positional encoding and cross-covariance structures of correlated Gaussian processes. We illustrate the performance of our approach on the Long-Range Arena benchmark and on music generation.

Co-evolving time series appears in a multitude of applications such as environmental monitoring, financial analysis, and smart transportation. This paper aims to address the following challenges, including (C1) how to incorporate explicit relationship networks of the time series; (C2) how to model the implicit relationship of the temporal dynamics. We propose a novel model called Network of Tensor Time Series, which is comprised of two modules, including Tensor Graph Convolutional Network (TGCN) and Tensor Recurrent Neural Network (TRNN). TGCN tackles the first challenge by generalizing Graph Convolutional Network (GCN) for flat graphs to tensor graphs, which captures the synergy between multiple graphs associated with the tensors. TRNN leverages tensor decomposition to model the implicit relationships among co-evolving time series. The experimental results on five real-world datasets demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed method.

This paper focuses on the expected difference in borrower's repayment when there is a change in the lender's credit decisions. Classical estimators overlook the confounding effects and hence the estimation error can be magnificent. As such, we propose another approach to construct the estimators such that the error can be greatly reduced. The proposed estimators are shown to be unbiased, consistent, and robust through a combination of theoretical analysis and numerical testing. Moreover, we compare the power of estimating the causal quantities between the classical estimators and the proposed estimators. The comparison is tested across a wide range of models, including linear regression models, tree-based models, and neural network-based models, under different simulated datasets that exhibit different levels of causality, different degrees of nonlinearity, and different distributional properties. Most importantly, we apply our approaches to a large observational dataset provided by a global technology firm that operates in both the e-commerce and the lending business. We find that the relative reduction of estimation error is strikingly substantial if the causal effects are accounted for correctly.

Inferring the most likely configuration for a subset of variables of a joint distribution given the remaining ones - which we refer to as co-generation - is an important challenge that is computationally demanding for all but the simplest settings. This task has received a considerable amount of attention, particularly for classical ways of modeling distributions like structured prediction. In contrast, almost nothing is known about this task when considering recently proposed techniques for modeling high-dimensional distributions, particularly generative adversarial nets (GANs). Therefore, in this paper, we study the occurring challenges for co-generation with GANs. To address those challenges we develop an annealed importance sampling based Hamiltonian Monte Carlo co-generation algorithm. The presented approach significantly outperforms classical gradient based methods on a synthetic and on the CelebA and LSUN datasets.

Time Series Classification (TSC) is an important and challenging problem in data mining. With the increase of time series data availability, hundreds of TSC algorithms have been proposed. Among these methods, only a few have considered Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) to perform this task. This is surprising as deep learning has seen very successful applications in the last years. DNNs have indeed revolutionized the field of computer vision especially with the advent of novel deeper architectures such as Residual and Convolutional Neural Networks. Apart from images, sequential data such as text and audio can also be processed with DNNs to reach state-of-the-art performance for document classification and speech recognition. In this article, we study the current state-of-the-art performance of deep learning algorithms for TSC by presenting an empirical study of the most recent DNN architectures for TSC. We give an overview of the most successful deep learning applications in various time series domains under a unified taxonomy of DNNs for TSC. We also provide an open source deep learning framework to the TSC community where we implemented each of the compared approaches and evaluated them on a univariate TSC benchmark (the UCR/UEA archive) and 12 multivariate time series datasets. By training 8,730 deep learning models on 97 time series datasets, we propose the most exhaustive study of DNNs for TSC to date.

Generative adversarial nets (GANs) have generated a lot of excitement. Despite their popularity, they exhibit a number of well-documented issues in practice, which apparently contradict theoretical guarantees. A number of enlightening papers have pointed out that these issues arise from unjustified assumptions that are commonly made, but the message seems to have been lost amid the optimism of recent years. We believe the identified problems deserve more attention, and highlight the implications on both the properties of GANs and the trajectory of research on probabilistic models. We recently proposed an alternative method that sidesteps these problems.

Image segmentation is still an open problem especially when intensities of the interested objects are overlapped due to the presence of intensity inhomogeneity (also known as bias field). To segment images with intensity inhomogeneities, a bias correction embedded level set model is proposed where Inhomogeneities are Estimated by Orthogonal Primary Functions (IEOPF). In the proposed model, the smoothly varying bias is estimated by a linear combination of a given set of orthogonal primary functions. An inhomogeneous intensity clustering energy is then defined and membership functions of the clusters described by the level set function are introduced to rewrite the energy as a data term of the proposed model. Similar to popular level set methods, a regularization term and an arc length term are also included to regularize and smooth the level set function, respectively. The proposed model is then extended to multichannel and multiphase patterns to segment colourful images and images with multiple objects, respectively. It has been extensively tested on both synthetic and real images that are widely used in the literature and public BrainWeb and IBSR datasets. Experimental results and comparison with state-of-the-art methods demonstrate that advantages of the proposed model in terms of bias correction and segmentation accuracy.

We study response generation for open domain conversation in chatbots. Existing methods assume that words in responses are generated from an identical vocabulary regardless of their inputs, which not only makes them vulnerable to generic patterns and irrelevant noise, but also causes a high cost in decoding. We propose a dynamic vocabulary sequence-to-sequence (DVS2S) model which allows each input to possess their own vocabulary in decoding. In training, vocabulary construction and response generation are jointly learned by maximizing a lower bound of the true objective with a Monte Carlo sampling method. In inference, the model dynamically allocates a small vocabulary for an input with the word prediction model, and conducts decoding only with the small vocabulary. Because of the dynamic vocabulary mechanism, DVS2S eludes many generic patterns and irrelevant words in generation, and enjoys efficient decoding at the same time. Experimental results on both automatic metrics and human annotations show that DVS2S can significantly outperform state-of-the-art methods in terms of response quality, but only requires 60% decoding time compared to the most efficient baseline.

In this paper, we develop the continuous time dynamic topic model (cDTM). The cDTM is a dynamic topic model that uses Brownian motion to model the latent topics through a sequential collection of documents, where a "topic" is a pattern of word use that we expect to evolve over the course of the collection. We derive an efficient variational approximate inference algorithm that takes advantage of the sparsity of observations in text, a property that lets us easily handle many time points. In contrast to the cDTM, the original discrete-time dynamic topic model (dDTM) requires that time be discretized. Moreover, the complexity of variational inference for the dDTM grows quickly as time granularity increases, a drawback which limits fine-grained discretization. We demonstrate the cDTM on two news corpora, reporting both predictive perplexity and the novel task of time stamp prediction.

北京阿比特科技有限公司