Approximate Policy Iteration (API) algorithms alternate between (approximate) policy evaluation and (approximate) greedification. Many different approaches have been explored for approximate policy evaluation, but less is understood about approximate greedification and what choices guarantee policy improvement. In this work, we investigate approximate greedification when reducing the KL divergence between the parameterized policy and the Boltzmann distribution over action values. In particular, we investigate the difference between the forward and reverse KL divergences, with varying degrees of entropy regularization. We show that the reverse KL has stronger policy improvement guarantees, but that reducing the forward KL can result in a worse policy. We also demonstrate, however, that a large enough reduction of the forward KL can induce improvement under additional assumptions. Empirically, we show on simple continuous-action environments that the forward KL can induce more exploration, but at the cost of a more suboptimal policy. No significant differences were observed in the discrete-action setting or on a suite of benchmark problems. Throughout, we highlight that many policy gradient methods can be seen as an instance of API, with either the forward or reverse KL for the policy update, and discuss next steps for understanding and improving our policy optimization algorithms.
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In experiments that study social phenomena, such as peer influence or herd immunity, the treatment of one unit may influence the outcomes of others. Such "interference between units" violates traditional approaches for causal inference, so that additional assumptions are often imposed to model or limit the underlying social mechanism. For binary outcomes, we propose an approach that does not require such assumptions, allowing for interference that is both unmodeled and strong, with confidence intervals derived using only the randomization of treatment. However, the estimates will have wider confidence intervals and weaker causal implications than those attainable under stronger assumptions. The approach allows for the usage of regression, matching, or weighting, as may best fit the application at hand. Inference is done by bounding the distribution of the estimation error over all possible values of the unknown counterfactual, using an integer program. Examples are shown using using a vaccination trial and two experiments investigating social influence.
Model-based offline optimization with dynamics-aware policy provides a new perspective for policy learning and out-of-distribution generalization, where the learned policy could adapt to different dynamics enumerated at the training stage. But due to the limitation under the offline setting, the learned model could not mimic real dynamics well enough to support reliable out-of-distribution exploration, which still hinders policy to generalize well. To narrow the gap, previous works roughly ensemble randomly initialized models to better approximate the real dynamics. However, such practice is costly and inefficient, and provides no guarantee on how well the real dynamics could be approximated by the learned models, which we name coverability in this paper. We actively address this issue by generating models with provable ability to cover real dynamics in an efficient and controllable way. To that end, we design a distance metric for dynamic models based on the occupancy of policies under the dynamics, and propose an algorithm to generate models optimizing their coverage for the real dynamics. We give a theoretical analysis on the model generation process and proves that our algorithm could provide enhanced coverability. As a downstream task, we train a dynamics-aware policy with minor or no conservative penalty, and experiments demonstrate that our algorithm outperforms prior offline methods on existing offline RL benchmarks. We also discover that policies learned by our method have better zero-shot transfer performance, implying their better generalization.
The performance of Emergency Departments (EDs) is of great importance for any health care system, as they serve as the entry point for many patients. However, among other factors, the variability of patient acuity levels and corresponding treatment requirements of patients visiting EDs imposes significant challenges on decision makers. Balancing waiting times of patients to be first seen by a physician with the overall length of stay over all acuity levels is crucial to maintain an acceptable level of operational performance for all patients. To address those requirements when assigning idle resources to patients, several methods have been proposed in the past, including the Accumulated Priority Queuing (APQ) method. The APQ method linearly assigns priority scores to patients with respect to their time in the system and acuity level. Hence, selection decisions are based on a simple system representation that is used as an input for a selection function. This paper investigates the potential of an Machine Learning (ML) based patient selection method. It assumes that for a large set of training data, including a multitude of different system states, (near) optimal assignments can be computed by a (heuristic) optimizer, with respect to a chosen performance metric, and aims to imitate such optimal behavior when applied to new situations. Thereby, it incorporates a comprehensive state representation of the system and a complex non-linear selection function. The motivation for the proposed approach is that high quality selection decisions may depend on a variety of factors describing the current state of the ED, not limited to waiting times, which can be captured and utilized by the ML model. Results show that the proposed method significantly outperforms the APQ method for a majority of evaluated settings
We develop an \textit{a posteriori} error analysis for a numerical estimate of the time at which a functional of the solution to a partial differential equation (PDE) first achieves a threshold value on a given time interval. This quantity of interest (QoI) differs from classical QoIs which are modeled as bounded linear (or nonlinear) functionals {of the solution}. Taylor's theorem and an adjoint-based \textit{a posteriori} analysis is used to derive computable and accurate error estimates in the case of semi-linear parabolic and hyperbolic PDEs. The accuracy of the error estimates is demonstrated through numerical solutions of the one-dimensional heat equation and linearized shallow water equations (SWE), representing parabolic and hyperbolic cases, respectively.
Much of reinforcement learning theory is built on top of oracles that are computationally hard to implement. Specifically for learning near-optimal policies in Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs), existing algorithms either need to make strong assumptions about the model dynamics (e.g. deterministic transitions) or assume access to an oracle for solving a hard optimistic planning or estimation problem as a subroutine. In this work we develop the first oracle-free learning algorithm for POMDPs under reasonable assumptions. Specifically, we give a quasipolynomial-time end-to-end algorithm for learning in "observable" POMDPs, where observability is the assumption that well-separated distributions over states induce well-separated distributions over observations. Our techniques circumvent the more traditional approach of using the principle of optimism under uncertainty to promote exploration, and instead give a novel application of barycentric spanners to constructing policy covers.
The adaptive processing of structured data is a long-standing research topic in machine learning that investigates how to automatically learn a mapping from a structured input to outputs of various nature. Recently, there has been an increasing interest in the adaptive processing of graphs, which led to the development of different neural network-based methodologies. In this thesis, we take a different route and develop a Bayesian Deep Learning framework for graph learning. The dissertation begins with a review of the principles over which most of the methods in the field are built, followed by a study on graph classification reproducibility issues. We then proceed to bridge the basic ideas of deep learning for graphs with the Bayesian world, by building our deep architectures in an incremental fashion. This framework allows us to consider graphs with discrete and continuous edge features, producing unsupervised embeddings rich enough to reach the state of the art on several classification tasks. Our approach is also amenable to a Bayesian nonparametric extension that automatizes the choice of almost all model's hyper-parameters. Two real-world applications demonstrate the efficacy of deep learning for graphs. The first concerns the prediction of information-theoretic quantities for molecular simulations with supervised neural models. After that, we exploit our Bayesian models to solve a malware-classification task while being robust to intra-procedural code obfuscation techniques. We conclude the dissertation with an attempt to blend the best of the neural and Bayesian worlds together. The resulting hybrid model is able to predict multimodal distributions conditioned on input graphs, with the consequent ability to model stochasticity and uncertainty better than most works. Overall, we aim to provide a Bayesian perspective into the articulated research field of deep learning for graphs.
Although measuring held-out accuracy has been the primary approach to evaluate generalization, it often overestimates the performance of NLP models, while alternative approaches for evaluating models either focus on individual tasks or on specific behaviors. Inspired by principles of behavioral testing in software engineering, we introduce CheckList, a task-agnostic methodology for testing NLP models. CheckList includes a matrix of general linguistic capabilities and test types that facilitate comprehensive test ideation, as well as a software tool to generate a large and diverse number of test cases quickly. We illustrate the utility of CheckList with tests for three tasks, identifying critical failures in both commercial and state-of-art models. In a user study, a team responsible for a commercial sentiment analysis model found new and actionable bugs in an extensively tested model. In another user study, NLP practitioners with CheckList created twice as many tests, and found almost three times as many bugs as users without it.
We present a new method to learn video representations from large-scale unlabeled video data. Ideally, this representation will be generic and transferable, directly usable for new tasks such as action recognition and zero or few-shot learning. We formulate unsupervised representation learning as a multi-modal, multi-task learning problem, where the representations are shared across different modalities via distillation. Further, we introduce the concept of loss function evolution by using an evolutionary search algorithm to automatically find optimal combination of loss functions capturing many (self-supervised) tasks and modalities. Thirdly, we propose an unsupervised representation evaluation metric using distribution matching to a large unlabeled dataset as a prior constraint, based on Zipf's law. This unsupervised constraint, which is not guided by any labeling, produces similar results to weakly-supervised, task-specific ones. The proposed unsupervised representation learning results in a single RGB network and outperforms previous methods. Notably, it is also more effective than several label-based methods (e.g., ImageNet), with the exception of large, fully labeled video datasets.
Many tasks in natural language processing can be viewed as multi-label classification problems. However, most of the existing models are trained with the standard cross-entropy loss function and use a fixed prediction policy (e.g., a threshold of 0.5) for all the labels, which completely ignores the complexity and dependencies among different labels. In this paper, we propose a meta-learning method to capture these complex label dependencies. More specifically, our method utilizes a meta-learner to jointly learn the training policies and prediction policies for different labels. The training policies are then used to train the classifier with the cross-entropy loss function, and the prediction policies are further implemented for prediction. Experimental results on fine-grained entity typing and text classification demonstrate that our proposed method can obtain more accurate multi-label classification results.
In this paper, we propose the joint learning attention and recurrent neural network (RNN) models for multi-label classification. While approaches based on the use of either model exist (e.g., for the task of image captioning), training such existing network architectures typically require pre-defined label sequences. For multi-label classification, it would be desirable to have a robust inference process, so that the prediction error would not propagate and thus affect the performance. Our proposed model uniquely integrates attention and Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) models, which not only addresses the above problem but also allows one to identify visual objects of interests with varying sizes without the prior knowledge of particular label ordering. More importantly, label co-occurrence information can be jointly exploited by our LSTM model. Finally, by advancing the technique of beam search, prediction of multiple labels can be efficiently achieved by our proposed network model.
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